Europa Conference League, semi-final, first leg, Thursday, 01.05.2025 at 21:00
Starting as big title favorites, holding their nerve from round to round and now only two steps away from the final – Chelsea FC are moving almost flawlessly in our Conference League tips. Now, the Blues face a blatant underdog.
Allow me: Djurgarden, who have never played in an international semi-final before. So it will come as no surprise to you that I’m joining the bookmakers in saying that there can only be one favorite in the Djurgarden Chelsea betting tip:
I’m therefore backing an away win that ends up with no more than four goals. The Swedes have not yet had to deal with any major clubs in the current competition, having cheated their way through to the quarter-finals against Rapid Vienna.
A top club from England is a completely different proposition. But watch out, Chelsea: Djurgarden will have absolutely nothing to lose, and for the players it is probably the biggest and most important match of their entire career so far.
When David meets Goliath, more can happen than you might think at first. And even if Chelsea end up 1-0 ahead: For Djurgarden, that would be proof that they can keep up with the international elite.
The bookmaker prediction
It is by no means surprising that Chelsea will secure the role of favorites in this match. After five wins from five away games, it is only logical that our ApplePay bookmakers only have odds of 1.38 on offer.
On the home side, on the other hand, you can really take risks with a lot of courage, with odds of 8.00. The Swedes have only won twice at home so far, losing 1-0 to Rapid Vienna in the quarter-finals.
Djurgarden have drawn once this CL season, Chelsea have not yet drawn at all. So no chance of a draw? If you place this bet, you will be rewarded with average odds of 4.85.
AI prediction Djurgarden vs Chelsea: ChatGPT
How does ChatGPT approach a game that seems to have been decided before kick-off? The clear favorite role of the guests definitely plays a role in the three tips that I had the AI generate for me.
It’s not out of the blue for me that the tip “Chelsea win with handicap -2” is included. How clear will the visitors’ success be? The handicap would have been correct four times in the competition. I’ll make it simple and say: I can imagine both a 1:0 and a 4:0.
How many goals will be scored in the first half? ChatGPT is enthusiastic about the tip “Over 1.5 goals.” This was the case once at Djurgarden, in Chelsea away games it happened once. In this respect, I would be rather cautious with this tip.
With the classic, the “Over 2.5 goals”, it goes into the bet with rather low risk. Djurgarden’s attacking line-up is mediocre, and one or two goals could be enough for Chelsea. So here too, it’s a case of wait and see:
Analysis: Djurgarden vs Chelsea
Chelsea in the Conference League is something Blues fans have had to get used to in recent months. From the outset, it was clear that there could be no other champions based purely on qualitative criteria.
In the group with Gent, Panathinaikos, Heidenheim, Noah, Astana and Shamrock Rovers, the Blues came out on top with a total of 18 points and progressed to the knockout phase in first place.
Things were a little tighter there. Copenhagen were beaten 2:1 and 1:0, and the six wins before that all had a handicap of at least -1. And in the quarter-finals, the first defeat was finally waiting.
After a reassuring 3:0 win at Legia Warsaw in the first leg, the Londoners let the game slip away at home. In the absence of a number of regular players, they lost 2-1, but the defeat no longer mattered.
Analysis of odds
So far, Chelsea seem to have everything under control, even the defeat against Legia Warsaw was “controlled”. But since two of the last three Conference League wins were also close, I could imagine exactly the same for this Thursday.
In this respect, there is the option of betting on “Chelsea to win by one goal” at Bet365. The odds are estimated at 3.75. At the same time, there is of course also the option of placing a specific result bet.
A 0:1 or a 1:2 would be my favorites here. If we look at the odds, we would be offered odds of 8.00 or 8.50 for these two outcomes, so both tips are roughly equally risky.
Since I don’t expect quite as many goals, you can also bet on “Under 2.5 goals Chelsea”. This bet is also not quite as risky, the odds are 1.55.
Djurgarden vs. Chelsea: Will the Blues make it exciting?
For the fourth time in a row, Chelsea went into the break with a draw, this time 1-1 after three 0-0 draws. So if you have your eye on “Bet X after 45 minutes” this time too, you’ll be rewarded with odds of 2.50.
Incidentally, Chelsea have only met a team from Sweden eight times and have never lost. The Blues will face Djurgarden for the first time in the coming days.
Fittingly, Chelsea won against Everton in the league a few days ago, only the second time since mid-December that they have managed a double in terms of victories.
Can the Londoners reach the semi-finals, how have they fared in the last four in recent years? They have two Europa League titles to their name, but have been knocked out five times in the semi-finals of the top flight.
In theory, anything can happen, although the opponents in the Champions League have of course been much stronger than in the current season. Anything other than a clear victory on Thursday would therefore be an absolute disappointment.
Djurgarden have nothing to lose
In Djurgarden, or rather ON Djurgarden, because we’re talking about a Swedish island, you still can’t believe what’s in store in the coming days.
In 1955/56, there was once a quarter-final in the European Champions Cup, but they were knocked out by Hibernian. In 2022/23, they also reached the last 16 of the Conference League, where they were clearly knocked out by Lech Poznan.
The quarter-final against Rapid Vienna was initially 0:1, but a 2:1 win in the second leg led to extra time. Extra time was the deciding factor here, with the Swedes progressing with a 4:1 win.
Of course, they also benefited from the fact that the Austrians were sent off after just a few minutes. With 30 shots, twelve of them directly on goal, the victory was of course well deserved in the end.
The round of 16 had already seen a win and a defeat. We beat Pafos 3:0 at home and 0:1 away from home. All in all, we are dealing with results that should not scare Chelsea too much.
For the sake of completeness, it should be said that they survived the group stage with 13 points against Guimaraes, LASK, Panathinaikos, The New Saints, Legia Warsaw and Vikingur.
With two white vests, the defense doesn’t make the safest impression on me, and two of the three defeats were conceded in their own stadium. In the qualifiers, all three home games were won.
My Djurgarden Chelsea tip:
How confidently will Chelsea FC overcome the Djurgarden hurdle? There is no question that the Blues are favored going into the semi-finals. However, some of their recent Conference League games have not been as commanding as they were at the start of the competition.
Everything is new and historic for Djurgarden in this semi-final. The Swedes will put everything on the line and rely on the support of the crowd to create a sensation.
In my opinion, however, the Blues are simply too strong to pull off a surprise. However, as it could well be close again, as in the last few games, my tip is:
Chelsea win by under 4.5 goals!
