Dortmund – Atletico Madrid betting tip 16.04.2024

Borussia Dortmund – Atletico Madrid betting tip

Atletico Madrid were once considered indestructible in defense. After their success in the quarter-final first leg, you could continue to follow this assumption, but the Colchoneros are a different team this year.

Diego Simeone prefers to play his team in a 3-5-2, even if the profile of the back three is not ideal. The ageing former Chelsea full-back Cesar Azpilicueta and former BVB six-pointer Axel Witsel take up the positions alongside the only real central defender José María Giménez.

With the additional energy provided by the Metropolitano, this construction may work – but the away games are a problem. In the Spanish Primera Division, the Colchoneros have only won five of their 15 visits.

In relation to the top flight, the win rate away from home is not all that different. Only one of the Rojiblancos’ four away games to date has ended in victory

Signal Iduna Park is a kind of Metropolitano for BVB, meaning that Dortmund are still unbeaten in front of the yellow and black wall this CL season (2 wins, 2 draws). Thanks to the follow-up goal from the first leg, there is still hope of progressing to the semi-finals.

Edin Terzic will once again rely on his dribbling attacking artists. After all, that was the favored approach in the first leg, when Jadon Sancho dribbled twelve times – the most in the knockout phase so far.

For my Dortmund Atletico Madrid betting tip, I had a look around Happybet and picked out a suitable soccer bet. With odds of 1.90, I’m playing “Dortmund over 1.5 goals.”

The bookmaker forecast

Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in nine Champions League home games (5 wins, 4 draws). Only a win can save the Black & Yellows from elimination. A BVB treble reaches top odds of 2.26. In my eyes, this is a clear case for a free bet.

Sometimes this season it feels like Atletico Madrid are playing a completely different team away from home, such is the difference between their performances and their home games. I can certainly understand why the Rojiblancos are slightly weaker in the odds comparison and break through the 3.00 wall.

For a second leg without a winner, Betano seems to be the best address so far. If both teams miss out on a win, top odds of 3.70 await you there.

As long as the Spanish representative averts defeat, no Rojiblancos supporter will be complaining about a draw. Even without an away win, Diego Simeone could reach the semi-finals of the top flight for the fourth time in his tenure as Atletico coach

Analysis: Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid

Dortmund made two serious mistakes in the first leg, both of which led to a goal against. Nevertheless, the first match should not discourage the Black & Yellows.

Atletico Madrid were unable to maintain the high intensity of the first half and came under huge pressure in the second half, with BVB even having the chance to equalize through Julian Brandt.

Outside of the Metropolitano, the Colchoneros have won just one of their four CL games this season. Atletico Madrid have not conceded a goal in any of those four appearances

The Spanish top team are not playing great defense at the moment anyway. Including the 3:1 win against Girona last matchday, the Colchoneros have not conceded in ten competitive games.

The following statistic shows just how much this number of goals conceded differs from previous years: For the first time in his ten years at Atletico Madrid, Jan Oblak has conceded a goal in ten competitive games in a row!

Under these conditions, Dortmund could actually turn the first leg around. The Bundesliga side have gone three of their first four CL home games this season without conceding a goal.

If Terzic’s side can prevent them from conceding another goal, a 2-0 home win would be enough to advance to the semi-finals. This is exactly the result that has been shown on the scoreboard in two of BVB’s last three CL home games

Analysis of odds

Atletico Madrid are heavily reliant on Antoine Griezmann this season. The 33-year-old has scored six goals in this top flight season and bagged a brace against Girona last weekend (3:1).

If the visitors’ top CL scorer scores at Signal Iduna Park, the Rojiblancos’ chances of progressing will increase dramatically. In his current form, you should consider investing your Oddset bonus in the odds of 2.90 for “Antoine Griezmann scores”.

A defeat for the home side would be a big surprise for the bookmakers. For a “double chance 1X”, the bookmakers don’t have much more to offer than odds of up to 1.40.

For me, the probability of an away win is also vanishingly small. Atletico Madrid have only won two out of seven away league matches this calendar year.

A draw with a handicap of 0:1, on the other hand, comes much closer to my expectations for this match and is offered in the Interwetten App with odds of 4.10.

Great focus on dribbling

In attack, Edin Terzic likes to rely on the individual skills of his attacking players. The BVB coach has exactly the right players on the pitch for this.

At national level, there are only two teams that have created more chances through dribbling than BVB (18.41 per 90 minutes according to Soccerment).

The focus on this approach was already evident in the first leg, where Jadon Sancho dribbled 12 times and put Axel Witsel in particular in trouble.

In addition to him, the Black & Yellows have at least two other dribble-happy players at their disposal in Donyell Malen and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, who will have a significant influence on Diego Simeone’s match plan.

The importance of a clean sheet

No team has left the pitch without conceding a goal more often than Borussia Dortmund (4) in this edition of the Premier League.

At home, Terzic’s charges must rectify the 2-1 deficit from the first leg, for which a clean sheet is extremely important.

So far, BVB have only scored more than 2.5 goals in one of their nine Champions League matches. That shows me that a goal conceded by the Colchoneros could be a big problem.

I think the chance of an “Atletico under 0.5 goals” game is big enough to take a Betano bonus and place it at odds of 3.35. Nationally, Atletico have finished 40 percent of their visiting appearances without scoring a goal of their own.

Further hopes for success with my Dortmund Atletico Madrid betting tip come from the Rojiblancos’ recent league results.

Diego Simeone raged after three of the last six league games about the fact that his team had conceded “Over 1.5 goals”.

None of those previous six league games ended without Atletico Madrid conceding a goal – in total, the Colchoneros have conceded ten goals in that period

Dortmund, on the other hand, have been particularly hungry for goals since the end of February and have scored “over 1.5 goals” in six of their last seven Bundesliga games.

I think the home side can do that even without Sebastian Haller, who was injured again and scored the important equalizer in the first leg.

His loss naturally hurts Edin Terzic, but is nothing new for BVB. So far, Sebastian Haller has only played six percent of the possible CL minutes on the pitch anyway

My Dortmund Atletico Madrid tip:

Dortmund is challenged and Dortmund will deliver. The Black & Yellows have a weak Rojiblancos away from home, who BVB almost conceded two goals to in the first leg.

I don’t expect another weak start from the hosts. Rather, I’m thinking of a similarly intense half as in the round of 16, when Dortmund took the lead against PSV after just three minutes and produced one of the strongest halves of the season.

Atletico Madrid no longer have the same defensive class as they did at the start of the Simeone era and instead rely more on their own attack.

My Dortmund Atletico Madrid tip is therefore: Dortmund to score over 1.5 goals

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