Dortmund – Monterrey Prediction Club World Cup, Round of 16 on Wednesday, 02.07.2025 at 03:00
While the Club World Cup has probably not convinced all skeptics of the usefulness of the new competition so far, this could finally change this coming Saturday.
After FC Bayern meets PSG at 6 p.m., the clash between BVB and Real Madrid (or Juventus) could complete the extremely promising quarterfinals at 10 p.m.
The only prerequisite for this is that Westphalia follows my Dortmund Monterrey tip tonight, which also predicts a successful round of 16 for the second Bundesliga team in the group!
Even if the bookmakers are also predicting a successful run for Dortmund in Atlanta, Niko Kovac’s team would still be well advised to remain highly focused.
After all, the Mexicans also came through the preliminary round unbeaten – and the black and yellow fans have yet to see a truly convincing performance from their favorites.
However, two clean sheets in the preliminary round at least give hope that Borussia can rely on their defense early on Wednesday morning.
Since Monterrey has also conceded only one goal in the current tournament, my BVB Monterrey prediction is for a maximum of four goals in total!
Dortmund – Monterrey prediction & bets
My Monterrey Dortmund tip is for a third clean sheet for BVB in the current Club World Cup. While Dortmund only indulged in a joyful loss of control against Sundowns, they were much more measured against Fluminense and Ulsan.
If they can get the header monster Ramos under control, I could well imagine BVB leaving the pitch in the United States with a clean sheet for the third time.
At our PayPal bookmakers, “BTS: No” – which theoretically also has a BVB shutout up its sleeve – is just as good as my main tip for a straight doubling of the stake.
I’m aiming for a slightly higher return with the new signing of the hour, who already scored two points in the preliminary round. If Jobe Bellingham scores for the second time in a Dortmund shirt, I’ll pocket a handsome 6.60!
What you need to bear in mind when betting on Dortmund vs. Monterrey
- Borussia Dortmund has kept three clean sheets in its last four competitive games. This is their most consistent run since February 2025.
- Monterrey leads the statistics for successful tackles with an average of 13.3 per game. However, only three teams have won back possession in the opponent’s half less often (1.7 times per game). BVB leads the corresponding statistics with 8.7 ball recoveries per game.
- With an average of 1.76, this game is considered the third most difficult for Dortmund since April 20. Only the 4-2 away win against Leverkusen (2.53) and the 3-2 win in Hoffenheim (1.83) had higher odds.
- Monterrey defender Sergio Ramos scored ten times against Borussia Dortmund during his time at Real Madrid. The German club is the non-Spanish team against which Ramos has received the most yellow cards (5) in his career.
- Daniel Svensson leads the rankings in both big chances created (4) and expected assists (1.7). Serhou Guirassy, on the other hand, has scored only one goal from 2.16 xG and missed five big chances – currently the highest number in the Club World Cup.
Dortmund – Monterrey: odds analysis
The bookmakers see Borussia Dortmund as slight favorites in the round of 16 match against Monterrey. The odds indicate a probability of victory of around 56% within 90 minutes.
On paper, this is Dortmund’s third-toughest game since April 20. Only the 4-2 away win against Leverkusen and the 3-2 win in Hoffenheim had higher odds.
As in those two tests, however, the ordeal should ultimately end well this time too.
The promotion odds of just 1.33 at Betano Germany certainly point to excellent chances of reaching the quarter-finals, especially if you factor in extra time and penalties.
A bet on a win for the German team in regular time could also be worthwhile, according to our in-house artificial intelligence.
The internal forecast calculates a 63.6% probability of victory for Nico Kovac’s team and a 79.74% chance of reaching the quarter-finals.
This makes the first Dortmund Monterrey AI tip a bet on a confident victory for the favorites. If BVB actually achieves the suggested handicap of -1, the bet will pay out approximately 2.7 times the stake.
However, it could be risky to underestimate Monterrey. The AI prediction tends toward a high-scoring game, which, to my relief, is still compatible with my BVB Monterrey tip.
After all, according to our AI model, in addition to “BTS,” over 2.5 goals are enough to anchor ourselves in safe harbor with regard to the promised odds of 2.00 …
The best odds for Dortmund vs. Monterrey
The odds comparison for the Dortmund Monterrey tip points to a continuation of the Westphalian high-flyers’ run. Although their performances in the Club World Cup so far have not exactly been top notch, they have at least been crowned with success.
Favorite odds of just under 1.70 now suggest that the Borussia team could still make it straight to the quarter-finals with a more or less convincing performance!
If, on the other hand, both teams need extra time to decide the outcome, the payouts will increase to up to 4 times the stake.
The last Mexican representative must therefore settle for the role of clear underdog. Odds of 5.30 indicate a probability of success of less than 20 percent.
Dortmund vs. Monterrey Match Analysis:
In the round of 16, two undefeated teams from the group stage will face each other. Dortmund has improved over the course of the tournament and is likely to have the upper hand for much of this match.
Reaching the quarter-finals is a realistic goal for Niko Kovač’s team. However, Monterrey is a real threat, especially on the counterattack.
The Mexican team showed in their 1-1 draw with Inter Milan in their first game of the Club World Cup that they can compete with any opponent. Monterrey had only 38% possession but managed 11 shots on goal and looked dangerous against the Nerazzurri throughout.
Domènec Torrent has a wealth of experience in his squad. Players such as Sergio Ramos and Sergio Canales are used to playing against top European opponents. Their expertise will be crucial when it comes to disrupting Borussia Dortmund’s rhythm.
Niko Kovač’s Dortmund team is known for its aggressive pressing and quick transitions. The Borussia players will not give Monterrey’s defense any breathing space when they get the ball.
Nevertheless, there will be space to exploit behind the BVB defense if Torrent’s men can withstand the initial wave of pressure.
Dortmund are favorites, but they need to watch out for Monterrey’s attack. Germán Berterame scored two goals in his last game and will naturally be looking to make his mark against the Westphalians again.
Borussia Dortmund form check
It has been a disappointing season for BVB. The Black and Yellows have not won a title (so far) and were lucky to qualify for the next Champions League despite their weak first half of the season under Nuri Sahin.
In their comeback, Dortmund benefited greatly from Niko Kovač taking over the reins in the second half of the season.
The Club World Cup now offers BVB another chance to redeem themselves. The opening game against Fluminense ended in a 0-0 draw, but since then both Mamelodi Sundowns and Ulsan have been defeated.
Thanks to their unbeaten start to the tournament, Dortmund are now unbeaten in 10 competitive games, winning eight of them. During this period, the team has averaged 2.7 goals per game.
Serhou Guirassy was Dortmund’s standout striker last season. Over the past 12 months, he has averaged 0.64 goals per 90 minutes (excluding penalties).
Guriassy is now supported by Jobe Bellingham, who recently moved from Sunderland to the Ruhr region to follow in his brother’s footsteps.
Jobe has already performed well in the Club World Cup, providing an assist in the 1-0 win over Ulsan and scoring a goal in the 4-3 win over Mamelodi Sundowns. The Englishman is likely to become a fan favorite at BVB, just like his brother Jude.
Kovač is now hoping that his reinforced attack will also prevail against Monterrey.
Monterrey form check
Monterrey’s preparations for the Club World Cup have been far from ideal, so they are already delighted to have reached the knockout stages. Martin Demichelis was sacked in May after the team’s elimination in the quarter-finals of the Liga MX.
Domènec Torrent has since taken the reins and set about molding the talented group of players into a functioning team with a clear style of play.
Torrent, who worked as Pep Guardiola’s assistant for over ten years, prefers a possession-oriented approach, very much in the style of Catalan football.
This was particularly evident when his team dominated Urawa Red Diamonds 4-0 in the group stage, but it will be more difficult to control the ball against Dortmund.
The Rayados also had the majority of possession in their second group game against River Plate. However, they only managed three shots on goal in the entire game, which led to a change in formation in the third group match.
Torrent could now field two strikers again to put BVB under pressure, but that must not come at the expense of defensive stability. So far, the Mexicans have conceded only one goal in the Club World Cup.
The bottom line is that Monterrey will have to perform at the highest level on both sides of the pitch if they want to upset the favorites and knock Dortmund out of the competition.
My prediction: BVB win & under 4.5 goals
