Dortmund – PSG betting tip 01.05.2024

BVB – PSG betting tip

These are probably the two most important games of the season, which could still save a rather manageable season! Borussia Dortmund, and certainly not everyone would have expected this, appear in the semi-finals of our UEFA Champions League tips!

The Black & Yellows made it through the tough group and now they’ll get their reward. As in the preliminary round, an absolute cracker awaits: Paris St. Germain. A number of world stars will be visiting Dortmund, but they know how difficult it is to win there.

The main aim for both is to secure a good starting position for the second leg. BVB would naturally like to make the most of their home advantage, as they have never lost at home to Paris. It is interesting to note that the bookmakers are finding it very difficult to name a favorite.

The bookmakers are therefore anything but certain that BVB will be able to secure a better starting position for next week’s second leg after yesterday’s 2-2 draw with Bayern.

In this respect, we could be in for a match of equals. Borussia must not be put off by their unsuccessful national dress rehearsal, because the situation is always completely different when the anthem of the premier class sounds.

In my Dortmund PSG betting tip, I will try to find out whether an individual stroke of genius or the collective will be decisive in the end. In any case, my prediction is that the big spectacle will probably not happen if the score is under 3.5 goals!

Incidentally, the Combi Joker is of course also of particular interest for this hot match: this not only grants new customers a free bet of up to 100 euros after a miss – two lucky winners will also be placed in the VIP seats of Frankfurt Eintracht at the end of the season

The bookmaker forecast

PSG have only lost once against Dortmund, but BVB have yet to lose at home to the Parisians. So I’m not surprised that there aren’t any major differences in our sports betting apps.

The home side are active in the minimal role of underdogs, landing at an average of 2.75. The visitors from the French capital, on the other hand, have a slightly lower 2.45.

There was one draw on German soil in the group stage. If there is no winner after 90 minutes this time either, the bookmakers would offer average odds of 3.60.

Analysis: Dortmund vs PSG

Compensate in Europe for what goes wrong in the league? You can do that! Borussia Dortmund are back in the semi-finals of the Champions League for the first time since 2013, and of course everyone remembers what happened eleven years ago.

BVB demolished Real Madrid by every trick in the book, reached the final and were beaten by FC Bayern shortly before the end. Then as now, the final will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.

Of course, the Black & Yellows are still two decisive steps away from that day, and everyone at the club knows just how difficult Paris is to play against. No wonder, as the two teams have already met in the group stage.

Dortmund lost 2-0 in Paris, but drew 1-1 at home. So both matches had relatively few goals to offer, which is something that runs through the entire direct comparison.

Only once, in a 2:1 win for the Bundesliga side, did they break the 2.5 goal barrier, while the other five matches fell short of this mark. 1:1, 2:1, 1:1, the matches in their own stadium were never lost on aggregate

The BVB PSG odds analysis

In terms of 1×2 bets, nobody stands out for me as being a class above, which is also due to Dortmund’s home advantage. I would therefore decide to take the risk of a draw here.

In a knockout game in the semi-finals, the rule is of course: don’t make the first mistake! That’s why I’m assuming a tactical match and that there will only be goals after the change of ends. For this assumption, 0:0 at the break, odds of 3.40 are due.

I can also well imagine that there will be a parallel to the match in the previous round. A draw with not quite as many goals? The 1:1 comes to mind here, which gets 7.50 at Bet365

BVB want to use the home advantage

The importance of home advantage was first seen in the quarter-finals. They went into the second leg against Atletico Madrid trailing 2-1, and the fans were in for a real treat.

BVB were leading 2:0 at first, then suddenly it was 2:2 and all seemed lost. Thanks to a magnificent display of energy, Borussia turned on the heat once again and celebrated a 4:2 win with their supporters and a place in the top four.

Dortmund had already benefited from having to play away first in the round of 16 against Eindhoven. 1:1 and 2:0, so it’s perhaps a little unfortunate that the decisive match is taking place in Paris

Snatching a match point for PSG?

The fact that only one of six duels against PSG has been won is not exactly encouraging. However, the Black & Yellows can still claim to have been unbeaten in ten home Champions League games.

What does it matter what happened just before the first leg? BVB went down 4-1 in Leipzig, even though they had taken a 1-0 lead.

Qualifying for the Champions League again via the league will be incredibly difficult (five points behind fourth place), but there is at least the special feature that, thanks to strong international performances, a starting place could still come as a gift – but that is not yet certain

Paris St. Germain will definitely be back in the top flight in 2024/25, even though the first match point for the championship was missed last weekend.

They only drew 3-3 at home against Le Havre, and PSG were incredibly lucky not to lose thanks to a goal in the 95th minute. The stars know, of course, that we’ll win the title anyway, and that the trophy is the ultimate prize.

Paris want to finally win the Champions League, having only reached the final once before in 2020. Last season, they were knocked out in the round of 16 by FC Bayern, so will another German club put an end to all their dreams?

The French beat FC Barcelona in the quarter-finals in two very impressive games. After a 2:3 at home, Mbappe and Co. got their revenge in the second leg, and they did so in style!

They triumphed 4:1, and nobody was rattled by the fact that they were behind at one stage. Kylian Mbappe scored his seventh and eighth goals, and the Dortmund defense could hardly stop him.

Why does Borussia have to be particularly careful? Quite simply because he scored twice in both knockout matches away from home! In the round of 16, PSG had won very solidly with 2:0 and 2:1 against Real Sociedad.

Dortmund fans won’t like to hear it, but of course I automatically offer myself the bet that Mbappe will also score on Wednesday

My BVB PSG tip:

From a German perspective, I’m keeping my fingers crossed for Borussia Dortmund that the first leg against PSG goes well. The visitors from France are by no means infallible and have never won in Dortmund.

It is interesting to note that the head-to-head meetings have all fallen short of the high offensive expectations. It is fitting that seven of BVB’s ten CL matches have produced fewer than three goals. At least four of the Parisians’ results were the same.

Since I can very well imagine a tactical affair in the first leg, true to the motto “just don’t make the first mistake”, I have decided to send the following tip into the race:

The 3.5 goals will not be exceeded!

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