NFL 2024/25: Eagles – Packers
This weekend marks the start of Wild Card Weekend, which also marks the start of the 2024 NFL playoffs. Can Philadelphia, built to win the Super Bowl, make a daring move in its own stadium that will ultimately take the franchise straight to the final?
That is the million-dollar question, which cannot be answered with any certainty, especially given the threat of Jalen Hurts being out. In my Eagles Packers tip, I will give you many good reasons why the game will be primarily characterized by energy- and time-consuming running plays.
In the Wild Card game between the Eagles and the Packers on Sunday, January 12, the uncertainty surrounding injuries could have a decisive influence on the outcome.
Just remember: Both quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love, are expected to be on the field, but there is still a chance that they could be dealing with the effects of their injuries, either during or instead of the game.
Especially in the case of Hurts, the question remains as to how the effects of the concussion will affect his playing style. If he doesn’t use his legs as usual and avoids contact with opponents, it could well play into the Packers’ hands.
The Eagles are rated as the clear favorite in the markets by German betting providers, with a win rate of around 1.44. However, I would rather avoid a home win bet for a number of reasons.
While the Packers played against some of the NFL’s toughest opponents in the regular season, the Eagles had a much easier schedule to complete.
This discrepancy is also reflected in the statistics: the Packers are ranked 3rd in the “DVOA ranking”, while the Eagles are only ranked 5th.
FYI: The DVOA ranking (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is an advanced statistic used in the NFL to evaluate a team’s overall performance, also taking into account the strength of the respective opponent.
DVOA measures a team’s efficiency in different areas of the game and adjusts these values according to the strength of the game plan.
In short, if you take the strength of each opponent into account, Green Bay has actually performed better than Philadelphia after 18 weeks.
I therefore have slight doubts about the Eagles’ role as favorites. Consequently, I can certainly understand if you want to inaugurate a sports betting bonus with a bold underdog bet on GB.
The Packers have performed strongly in recent weeks, especially under the leadership of Matt LaFleur, whose impressive record of 23 wins against only 12 defeats as an underdog shows that he has the potential to cause major upsets.
In recent games, the Packers have also shown that they don’t give up easily, even if they couldn’t always beat proven NFL favorites in the regular season.
The defense, which has been strong in recent weeks, will be crucial on Sunday to stop Hurts and the Eagles offense.
The game could, however, turn into a defensive battle. Both teams are among the best in the league in the category “EPA per game”. The Eagles rank first here, the Packers sixth.
Furthermore, both sides have shown good passing skills throughout the season, which indicates that in theory they could also prevail against the respective secondary…
On Sunday, however, it is likely that both teams will rely more on running plays this time, not only to stay in control of the game but also to manage the clock skillfully.
Why the respective defense will shape the course of the game? The Eagles have allowed the second-fewest points per game this season, while the Packers are sixth in this ranking with 19.9 points per game.
So this statistic actually suggests that we can expect an exciting and hard-fought game in which neither defense will take its foot off the gas.
The Packers have also shown several times in recent years that, with a clever coach and the right tactics, they can even challenge the favored Eagles. Consequently, the thought of an away win bet remains not entirely unfounded until the kick-off…
Incidentally, anyone who can read between the lines should already be able to predict my Eagles Packers tip quite well at this point.
I expect a lot of running plays, long possession phases, more field goals than touchdowns and, as a result, a tough low-scoring game.
This is especially true because the respective starting quarterbacks could still miss the wild card match or at least not be at 100%.
Consequently, I don’t know of anything better than to select an under 48.5 bet on the Merkur Bet app at a respectable odds of about 1.60.
Conclusion: This won’t be a pretty football game, especially if the quarterback position has to be re-filled on both sides.
Philadelphia is the more complete team in my opinion, but nonetheless, the franchise will play the same game plan as their opponents and try to run the ball continuously on Sunday.
It should therefore be a tough game with long drives and a final score below 48.5 points and perhaps slightly in favor of the home team…
My tip: Under 48.5 points
