NFL 2024/25: Bills – Broncos
Registering as an American football fan at Bet365 right now makes so much sense because the long-awaited NFL playoffs begin on Saturday – finally!
From now on, the motto that applies every year at this time is: he who loses, is out! One of the top favorites has been assigned an easier task on paper. And indeed, Josh Allen and his furious offense should have an easy game according to my Bills Broncos tip.
Denver is simply not quite equipped to go toe-to-toe with a top team of this caliber.
Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that Denver, after the departure of Russell Wilson and with an inexperienced rookie quarterback, would achieve what seemed out of reach last year? A playoff appearance!
But it is also clear that they have been assigned what is arguably the toughest lot in this Wild Card round. Buffalo has also been able to prepare mentally for this important home game for weeks.
The hosts are favorites to win, and with good reason: with Josh Allen in top form and an explosive offense that regularly scores 30+ points, Buffalo seems well prepared to make it to the Super Bowl.
The crux of the matter? Denver had an impressive “against the spread” record of 12 wins to 5 losses during the regular season, but against strong opponents, the Broncos often showed weaknesses.
If you exclude the game in week 18 against Kansas City’s substitutes, they were hardly convincing against teams with a record of.500 or better.
The defense faltered particularly in the final weeks of the season: the Chargers scored 34 points, and both the Bengals and the Browns cracked the 30-point mark.
That will be extremely difficult for the inexperienced Colorado team against a team with immense offensive potential like Buffalo, which is particularly strong at home and also well rested.
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The Bills have impressively shown multiple times during the regular season that they can decide games early. With seven double-digit wins and a flawless 8-0 home record, they seem to be in an extremely good position for Sunday.
Buffalo’s defense has slowed down a bit towards the end of the season – since week 9, they have only ranked 22nd in defensive EPA – but the offense easily makes up for that.
Denver, on the other hand, is relying on rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who is doing well, but has a daunting task ahead of him in an away playoff game against a strong team like Buffalo.
Would you also give the Bills the edge in a spread of under -10 points? Personally, hours before kick-off, I tend to think that the favorite will crack this mark.
The weather shouldn’t play too big a role on Sunday. The forecasts promise temperatures just below freezing, but little wind and only a slight chance of precipitation. This should hardly disrupt Buffalo’s highly efficient offense.
With nine games over 30 points in the last ten games, the hosts are a real nightmare for opposing defenses.
At the same time, the guests could still secure a few points by improving their score late on, which might even make an over-47.5 point bet, which is trading at around 1.87, attractive. What do you think, are you going to go with it?
Quick recap: Buffalo has proven in recent years that they don’t do things by halves in the Wild Card round. They swept New England out of the stadium 47-17 last year and are hungry for another clear victory this time around.
Denver, on the other hand, is relying on a strong defense and hopes that Bo Nix can keep his team in the game. Whether that’s enough to endanger the “Mafia” in Orchard Park remains questionable. All in all, the hosts seem to have the upper hand here.
Specifically, I expect the “Electric Company” to be tough on the opponent and to get off to a furious start as usual.
Translated into a decent Bills Broncos tip, as can be easily typed into the handy Merkur Bet app at any time, the keyword is clearly: handicap.
Personally, I have decided on a popular Asian handicap bet at Bet-at-home, according to which Buffalo will retain the upper hand with HC -11.5. I consider the odds of around 2.20 offered for this to be more than fair for this venture.
Conclusion: Don’t let Week 18 influence you too much.
Buffalo lost to the Pats in a game with the handbrake on, while the Broncos beat a half-hearted B-team of the Chiefs 38-0.
But if the Bills are mentally present and show what they have so often offered the fans at Highmark Stadium during the regular season, it will be a long evening for Denver.
My Bills Denver Tip: BUF wins with Asian Handicap -11.5.