NFL 2024/25: Eagles – Steelers
In my Eagles Steelers tip, I try to sensitize you to the possibility that the home side might have a tough time here. The “Iggles” have hardly seen a defense of the caliber of the guests so far…
The upcoming game between the Eagles and the Steelers is one of those matchups that immediately catch the eye. Why? This is a clash between two teams that present themselves in completely different ways.
At first glance, the spread of six points in favor of the “Iggles” from Philadelphia may be understandable, precisely because Pittsburgh’s star receiver George Pickens will be out for an extended period of time.
But never underestimate the Steelers’ defense – it is the heart of the team and a real game-changer.
Pittsburgh brings something to the field with its defense that Philly has not yet experienced this season.
The Eagles have recently played against defenses that are almost consistently at the bottom of the league in statistics like “EPA allowed per play” – rankings like 32, 31, 30 or, at best, 19.
And now? Pittsburgh comes in at number 5. That’s a completely different story and could be a big problem for Jalen Hurts, who is in a bit of a slump anyway.
You probably noticed: Hurts’ performances fluctuate. In the first 11 weeks, he was still at the top when it came to “CPOE” (Completion Percentage Over Expected), but in the last three games, he has slipped to 11th place.
Philly almost lost the game against Carolina in week 14 – and there seems to be a lot of unrest in the locker room! A.J. Brown didn’t mince his words after the game and is said to have loudly criticized both his quarterback and the playcalling.
Such unrest can quickly throw a team off balance – especially before such an important game.
But let’s also take a look at Pittsburgh’s offense, which has improved in recent weeks. Sure, you have to acknowledge that the Steelers’ recent opponents – just like the Eagles – are hardly feared for their defensive performance across the league.
But the fact is that Head Coach Mike Tomlin’s team has recently found ways to keep games close or win them by a narrow margin.
Before the 27-14 loss to Cleveland, which was marked by turnovers, Pittsburgh had already played five consecutive games that were decided by just one score. That speaks to strong nerves and a certain coolness.
Now let’s take a look at something else you should never ignore when betting: coaching records.
Mike Tomlin, who has been in charge in Pittsburgh since 2007, is a real master when it comes to shining as an underdog.
60-31-4 ATS (against the spread) in the regular season as an underdog – that’s over 65% of games won! And this season? 5-0 ATS as an underdog. Tomlin is particularly strong in non-conference games, where he even has a 59% cover record.
All of this leads me to believe that Philadelphia could experience their blue miracle on Sunday – precisely because of their role as favorites in the betting markets.
The win rate of 3.00 for Pittsburgh is tempting at first glance, but without George Pickens in the offense, I am not sure whether the Steelers will score many points themselves.
But their defense should still be relied upon! Consequently, I opt for the offer “Eagles with less than 2.5 touchdowns”, which is doing the rounds at odds of 1.92 on average in the betting markets.
Conclusion: According to my Eagles Steelers prediction, I expect Philadelphia to stay under 2.5 touchdowns.
The loss of George Pickens will affect Pittsburgh’s offense, but the franchise usually shines as the underdog. Jalen Hurt’s crisis of form and the relentless Steelers defense, which he has never seen before, could actually pose a danger to Philadelphia.
The Eagles have been overrated lately – this defense will bring them back down to earth. Expect a close game with a lot of defense!
My tip: Eagles score less than 2.5 TD
