Bundesliga Relegation, Second Leg, Monday, 05/26/2025 at 8:30 p.m.
Initially, the 2025 Bundesliga relegation duel between Elversberg and Heidenheim was mockingly referred to as “El Dorfico.” But then the two clubs engaged in a spectacular battle in the first leg and promoted soccer.
Part 2 follows this Monday evening. And the question in my Elversberg Heidenheim tip is still: Which of the two “village clubs” will be playing in the Bundesliga next season?
After the 2-2 draw in Heidenheim, everything is still to play for in the return leg in Elversberg. Can the Saarlanders achieve their third promotion in four years? Or can the Swabians stay up for the second time in a row?
Eleven years ago, the two clubs were already battling it out for promotion. Back then, Heidenheim secured their ticket to the 2nd Bundesliga with a 1-1 draw at SVE with four games to go before the end of the season.
However, the odds from German-licensed bookmakers now see the home side slightly ahead in the Elversberg Heidenheim prediction. I have come to a different conclusion, though.
So I’m going for “Heidenheim will stay up” at odds of 2.32 with Betano! The betting odds for this have continued to rise on the day of the game, and this morning the odds were just under 2.20.
The bookmakers’ Elversberg – Heidenheim prediction
The Elversberg vs Heidenheim odds are predicting a close game, but are leaning slightly more towards the home team. This is, of course, due to their form and home advantage.
The average odds for a home win for the Saarlanders are 2.35. On the other hand, the odds for an FCH victory are between 2.80 and 3.10.
AI prediction Elversberg vs Heidenheim: ChatGPT’s prediction
What would such an exciting duel be without ChatGPT’s opinion? The AI has once again shared its assessment of this match with us and, with a low risk, suggests the tip “Both teams to score.”
In my opinion, you can’t go far wrong with this bet. There were four goals in the first leg. In addition, the game had a total xG value of 5.18.
At Bwin, you get odds of 1.55 for both teams to score. For new customers, the provider naturally has the Bwin betting bonus ready. After that, however, the artificial intelligence becomes a little uncertain.
With a medium risk, the initial recommendation is “Elversberg to win in regular time.” This is basically in line with the opinion of the bookmakers, who see the home side narrowly ahead.
In addition, this tip would give us odds of 2.15 at Merkur Bets. However, when it comes to the high-risk suggestion, ChatGPT suddenly drifts in the other direction and decides on “Heidenheim win & over 2.5 goals.”
As mentioned, the AI can’t really make up its mind here. FCH staying up and more than two goals will definitely get you high odds of 4.50 at Oddset. Speaking of Oddset, the popular bookmaker has kicked off its odds turbo.
Analysis: Elversberg vs Heidenheim
After the 26th matchday, Elversberg had already slipped to ninth place in the table. But then the Saarlanders started a winning streak and now go into the return match against FCH with nine games without defeat (5W, 4D).
In the last 15 matchdays, coach Horst Steffen’s team has suffered just one defeat. The Spielvereinigung has been particularly strong away from home, conceding only three defeats and 12 goals in total.
This is the best record in both statistics in the lower division. However, SVE conceded five of their eight defeats at home and also conceded 25 goals.
Elversberg were determined not to fall behind in the second leg. The second division side achieved this goal. Pinckert is available again today after serving his yellow card suspension.
With their defensive leader back in the back line, the Spielvereinigung had not conceded more than one goal in their last 14 BL2 matches. Three years ago, the club was still playing in the fourth division.
Since the introduction of the single-division 2nd Bundesliga, only two clubs, Blau Weiß 90 Berlin and RB Leipzig, have made the jump from the 4th division to the Bundesliga within four years.
Let’s take a look at the statistics for the relegation matches between League 1 and League 2: in 26 encounters, only six teams from the 2nd Bundesliga have made the jump to the top flight.
In eleven of the last twelve years, the Bundesliga club has managed to stay up in the relegation matches. And a draw in the first leg has also been a good omen for the higher-ranked team in recent years.
Since the reintroduction of the relegation play-offs in the 2008/09 season, the first division team has retained its place in four out of five cases after a draw. In the last 25 relegation matches, the clubs from the 2nd Bundesliga have only managed three wins, all away from home (9 draws, 13 losses).
Odds analysis
If you’re looking for more Elversberg Heidenheim tips in addition to the AI’s suggestions, I’ve got something for you. Elversberg’s Fisnik Asllani leads the 2nd Bundesliga with 28 points (19 goals, 9 assists).
The Hoffenheim loanee also scored a goal and provided an assist in the first leg. So we’ll have to keep an eye on the Kosovar tonight as well. Bookmaker Winamax is offering odds of 2.50 for Asllani to score in the second leg.
Elversberg vs Heidenheim odds: Swabians feel more comfortable away from home
Even before the season, many fans and experts wondered how Heidenheim would cope with the double burden of European competition. And in the first 22 matchdays, Heidenheim only picked up 14 points.
But after being knocked out of the Conference League (in the play-offs for the round of 16 against FC Copenhagen), they picked up 15 points in twelve games. On matchdays 24 and 25, however, the Swabians had slipped to the bottom of the table.
With a run of seven points from the last four matchdays, coach Frank Schmidt’s men saved themselves by finishing in the relegation play-off spot in 16th place. The team had struggled at home.
The men from the Swabian Alb won just one of their last nine Bundesliga home games. With eleven points, Heidenheim was the weakest home team in the top flight. Twelve home defeats were also the highest number in the league.
As a result, they picked up more points away from home (18) than at home (11). In 2019/20, the club already gained experience in the Bundesliga relegation play-offs, but narrowly lost out to Werder Bremen as a second division side (0-0 A, 2-2 H).
Things didn’t look good at first after the first half of the first leg against Elversberg. But when coach Schmidt brought on Wanner, Zivzivadze, and Scienza for Dorsch, Beck, and Pieringer at half-time, the game turned around.
FCH is still undefeated against SVE
As already mentioned, the two clubs met for the first time in the 2013/14 third division season. Back then, FCH won their home game 1-0 and secured a 1-1 draw in the return leg in Saarland.
However, these two encounters are a little too long ago for our Elversberg Heidenheim prediction. In Thursday’s first leg, the overall shots (23:15) and possession (52 percent) favored the home side.
Frank Schmidt’s men also had a clear advantage in terms of expected goals, with 3.18 to 2.0. At half-time, however, the visitors from Saarland were leading 2:0.
It was only in the second half that FCH got into the game and managed to equalize to make the final score 2:2. The running distance, however, was 125.9 to 121.7 kilometers in favor of Spielvereinigung.
Coach Horst Steffen’s men go into the second leg in strong form and full of confidence. Above all, the club from Saarland is not feeling the slightest bit of pressure. The situation is somewhat different for Heidenheim.
But coach Schmidt and his team found a way to cope better with Elversberg’s style of play in the second half on Thursday. FCH has also gained experience in knockout matches in the Conference League this season.
My Elversberg Heidenheim prediction:
In addition, the statistics in the relegation play-offs clearly favor the Bundesliga clubs, who in recent years have often only been able to secure victory in the second leg.
But the second leg is sure to be another close affair. A decision may even have to be made in extra time or on penalties. So I’m hedging my bet on Heidenheim.
My Elversberg Heidenheim prediction is: Heidenheim will stay up!
