Serie A, Monday, 25.11.2024 at 18:30
On matchday 13 of Serie A, FC Empoli and Udinese Calcio are set for an extremely interesting clash. While Empoli have made minimalism their own, Udinese have struggled with noticeable form problems of late.
In my Empoli Udinese betting tip, I will therefore focus on a rather low-scoring clash – with advantages for the hosts.
Empoli and Udinese Calcio are in mid-table, currently far away from international dreams and the big relegation fears. In terms of the table, we are presented with a real neighborhood duel, with only one point between them.
FC Empoli is a team that stands for close results, many draws and an efficient style of play. Of course, this is easily proven by the fact that the points have been shared in half of all games.
Three 0:0, three times 1:1, they tend to stick to the low-scoring draws. The team has lost three times. The opponents. Lazio Roma, SSC Napoli and Inter Milan – THAT can really happen to even the best!
Only the 3-0 defeat to Inter this season was a clear case in point, with all three goals conceded after the break and Empoli having the misfortune of having to play short-handed from the 31st minute (Saba Goglichdize red card).
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I can certainly explain the heavy defeat, as the three goals conceded were anything but typical for Empoli. Previously, they had only conceded two in the 2-1 defeat against Lazio.
The Blues are very solid defensively and have already collected five clean sheets. They have currently conceded ten goals, making them the third-best defense in the entire league.
At the same time, however, the strong defending is often at the expense of the attacking department. Nine goals? Only Lecce can beat that! Twice they managed to score a brace, five times they didn’t score at all.
This automatically means that this team has only scored 2.5 goals three times. So if you have a pure over/under bet in mind, you should perhaps consider “Under 2.5 goals” at Bet365.
Although… you’ll actually have to be satisfied with odds of 1.40 here! 0:0, 0:0, 0:0, 0:1, 0:3, 1:0, quite understandable given these home games. So I go one step further and suggest “Under 1.5 goals”, now the odds pay off with 2.45.
All of Empoli’s home games were 0-0 at half-time. This is also a very interesting bet, which brings you odds of 2.20 at Bet365. If this result is on the scoreboard after 90 minutes, we are at 6.00.
Five goals from the last four games? The recent direct duels with Udinese really fit the current statistics perfectly! Empoli have not won any of the last five, but have drawn three times in this period.
For our bookmakers, the question of favorite and underdog is anything but easy to answer. 2.70 to 2.85, on average it is the home side who have a very minimal advantage.
While Empoli are extremely happy to share the points, Udinese Calcio only achieved this feat on the first matchday with a 1-1 draw against Bologna. The visitors seem to be more willing to take risks.
Udine will have been glad of the international break, as they went into it on the back of three straight defeats. 2:3 against Venezia, 0:2 against Juventus Turin and 1:2 against Atalanta – defeats four, five and six.
Inter, Milan, Roma, Atalanta and Juventus? Admittedly, five of the six clubs against whom they failed to pick up a point are among the top teams. However, since four of the five victories were won at home, this quickly shows how reluctant Udinese are to travel.
They only won 3-2 against Parma (and that after trailing 2-0) and drew 1-1 at Bologna. Most recently, they squandered a lead twice, and a 2-0 win in Venezia was not enough.
The minimalists from Empoli are back on the hunt for points! The Blues have played a strange round so far, in which it’s all about defending. At home, the fans are happy if a goal is scored at all.
Their team have scored once, but have conceded four times. How do the visitors from Udinese deal with this style of play? They concede significantly more goals, but are weak away from home and are currently in a crisis anyway.
If I put these facts together, I come to the conclusion that Empoli won’t lose. On the other hand, I have to rule out a spectacle, which would not suit the home side at all. So my tip is:
Empoli will score a maximum of three goals
