Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku, Sunday, 15.09.2024 at 14:00
After a two-week break, the premier class of motorsport continues! Max Verstappen travels to the Azerbaijan Grand Prix as the world championship leader. But his lead is melting away, now down to 62 points on Lando Norris.
McLaren is also hot on Red Bull’s heels in the constructors’ championship. If the trend continues, the traditional British team is likely to overtake them in Baku. McLaren has the more versatile and faster car, Verstappen has been waiting for a win for six races
I, on the other hand, continue to storm from betting success to betting success in Formula 1. Four race tips in a row have worked out. Will the fifth strike succeed? I have my eye on odds from Oddset. There is an enormous selection of different bets available.
McLaren is in front, but it’s very close, especially on a street circuit, and then Norris continues to have his starting problems. That’s why I dare to bet that Norris will miss out on the win again and select the entire field against Norris in the corresponding duel bet!
Ferrari hit back at Monza, or did McLaren just beat themselves? After the start, Oscar Piastri overtook his teammate Norris in a hard maneuver, who had to give up another place to Charles Leclerc as a result.
The McLaren drivers then engaged in a fierce battle with fast lap times. As planned, the team was forced to make a second pit stop.
True to the motto “When two fight, the third is happy”, Leclerc was gentler on the road and outwitted McLaren with just one stop to snatch Ferrari’s home victory
There was no sign of backing for Norris in the drivers’ championship for a long time. McLaren allows its drivers to race against each other under the so-called “Papaya Rules”, which state that hard but clean racing is permitted.
However, indications from the team management before the race in Azerbaijan now point to more Norris support. Mathematically, he is the only one of the McLaren drivers who could really still catch Verstappen. One less opponent in the race for Norris?
Whether Piastri will stick to the team order is a question that I would initially answer with “yes” due to Piastri’s honest character. Then Norris must first of all be within Piastri’s range. The Australian is becoming more and more competitive.
And there is a difference at the start in particular. Up until the race in Monza, Norris had lost 27 places shortly after the red lights went out, the absolute negative figure in Formula 1. He got off the line slightly better in Italy, but drove a fighting line and lost momentum for the second straight.
It’s not just a problem of acceleration from a standing start, but also one of behavior in the turmoil. Norris also finds it difficult to choose his driving line. Given his poor record, I think the 1.55 for a non-Norris win is strong.
And then he has to start from further forward to have a chance of scoring the 25 points. And the competition is not small. The win odds in the top sports betting apps are too far apart for my liking.
Norris tops the list with 2.30 ahead of Piastri (5.50) and Charles Leclerc (6.00). Only then does the world championship leader Verstappen follow (7.00).
Behind him, the other drivers follow in double figures. In fact, McLaren has proven strong on every type of track, but is it this clear?
I doubt it. I don’t expect a one-team show. Leclerc was able to match McLaren’s pace in Monza, the Scuderia has been on the road recently with a new underbody and has also been fast on the street circuit in Monaco.
Last year, Ferrari also snatched the only non-Red Bull victory on a street circuit. Leclerc, but also Carlos Sainz, are also on my radar.
The former dominant Red Bull team is also switching back to the Suzuka specification, with which the car still worked well. Mercedes also performed well at the last race in Hungary, another track with some slow corners. The high-speed sections also suit the Silver team
The last 5 races on the Baku City Circuit:
On the unusual circuit in the capital of Azerbaijan, it will definitely not be easy for Norris and a duel bet of 19 against one is definitely a 1.55 for 19 drivers.
And if it’s going to be as close as I think it will be, Norris needs to have a smooth race. A good qualifying, a good start, no incidents with other drivers, good pit stops, no technical faults and the right strategy.
And it has been said since Miami that McLaren has the best car. However, Verstappen’s championship rival has only won two of the eleven races so far
I see Piastri as mentally stronger, as he is increasingly able to keep up with Norris’ pace and is sometimes even faster. His top three finish brings a 1.58 on the betting slip at Bet365, a betting provider without tax.
In his first Formula 1 race in Azerbaijan, he was just six seconds behind Norris. With two rookies in the field, Franco Colapinto and Oliver Bearman, I also have my sights set on the “Under 18.5 drivers to finish” at 1.50.
In general, two retirements are likely on the narrow but fast circuit. A safety car is only a matter of time!
Conclusion: McLaren has had the fastest car since Miami, even if it wasn’t quite so clear at that stage. Winning two out of eleven races was ultimately not enough for Norris. Driver and team made too many mistakes to get more out of it.
The start in particular caused problems for the first Verstappen chaser. Ferrari have been strong of late, Red Bull have gone back to a different configuration that worked at the time and Mercedes are also repeatedly setting exclamation marks.
On the wild street circuit in Baku, I don’t expect Norris to be able to keep all 19 drivers behind him. The competition is fierce, it will be a close fight!
That’s why my Azerbaijan GP betting tip is: No Norris win!
