Türkiye Kupasi, Quarter-final, Wednesday, 02/04/2025 at 19:45
The 2024/25 season is taking it one step further: Galatasaray and Fenerbahce are now not only fighting each other for the championship, but are also to decide which of them will advance to the semi-finals of the Türkiye Kupasi!
The early final will take place on Wednesday, which is a shame, as someone is bound to be knocked out. Fittingly, the two only agreed to a 0-0 draw a few weeks ago.
In my Fenerbahce Galatasaray betting tip, I take a closer look at the explosive derby and tell you why I expect few goals here.
There it was, the first defeat in the Süper Lig! Galatasaray is not infallible after all, actually left the pitch last weekend without points. What made this defeat so bitter was that it was conceded in the derby against Besiktas, of all things.
Well, the Black Eagles are far away in the table, but the mood can be permanently affected by something like this. Rivals Fenerbahce are still six points behind, but they could get closer with a game in hand.
As such, the race for the title is wide open again, with the story of the 2024/25 season repeating itself. And as if that weren’t enough drama, the two top clubs will now face each other in the quarter-finals of the cup.
Galatasaray have not reached the semi-finals since 2019, when the Lions also triumphed in the end. Since then, they have been stopped in their tracks four times in the quarter-finals, most recently by Karagümrük and Basaksehr.
So even last season, when the Turkish record champions ended the season with dizzying statistics, the Kupasi simply did not want to be a welcome opponent.
What about the cup clashes with Fenerbahce? In 1989, they were knocked out in the quarter-finals, but triumphed in the final in 1996. In 2001, Gala were knocked out in the semi-finals, but won the competition again in 2005. They also had positive experiences in 2006 and 2016.
So, on the whole, more goes right than wrong. While I’m at it, I’ll dig a little deeper into the history. Not too long ago, the teams played out a 0-0 draw in the Süper Lig.
Fenerbahce won just one of their last eight home games, which they will not be pleased about. With three wins in their last 17 matches, the canaries are no longer a bogey team for Galatasaray.
Perhaps I can also inform you that the guests have only managed one clear win on the road since October, with all the other games being very close.
For the sake of completeness, it should also be mentioned that a group phase was played in the cup this season. 2:2 against Basaksehir, 4:1 against Boluspor and 0:0 against Konyaspor, the league leaders did not deliver any outstanding performances here.
For our PayPal bookmakers, one thing is clear: if anyone is the underdog here, it’s Fenerbahce. 3.80 to 1.90, although they rarely lose to Fener, there is more pessimism here.
For Fenerbahce, of course, one thing is clear: this season can still be really successful, but at the same time, it is also possible that they will not win any titles at all. The last time the canaries won the cup was in 2023, but since 2016, we have seen them survive five quarter-finals.
3:0 against Kasimpasa, 5:0 against Erzurumspor and 4:1 against Gaziantep? Yes, that’s what a commanding preliminary round looks like! The recent defeat of their archrival has of course made the Süper Lig look a lot better again.
The last game saw a 4-2 win over Bodrum. Anyone expecting Mourinho’s team to play defensively and efficiently is mistaken. Sure, with 25 goals conceded, they classically have the best defense, but they have also scored 67 times themselves.
For months, they didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet at home, but now they have managed to do so twice in a row against Antalyaspor (3-0) and Samsunspor (0-0). By the way, you have to pay particular attention to Youssef En-Nesyri.
He has four goals and one assist in the cup and has already scored 16 times in the league. You can get odds of 2.25 on the Bet365 app for a goal on Wednesday, with no one else offering such a low rate.
How does the fact that we are not in the Süper Lig affect this derby? The title race between Galatasaray and Fenerbahce has reignited, and the question of who prioritizes which competition is hard for me to answer.
Of course you know the statistic that Fener has hardly won against their rivals in years. At the same time, however, the Lions don’t really feel comfortable in the cup. Saving energy for the league? I can’t imagine that at all in this derby.
Therefore, as in the last game, I expect that the focus will be on defense. One mistake can mean the end, and in the last derby, there were no goals at all. So my tip is:
We see a maximum of three goals!
