Conference League quarter-final, second leg, Thursday, 18.04.2024
This Thursday will be the second meeting between Fiorentina and Viktoria Plzeň. Last week, they were held to a hard-fought 0-0 draw in the first leg in the Czech Republic. Scoring chances were in short supply as a result.
A week later, in my Fiorentina Viktoria Plzen betting tip, which I will put to the test with a licensed soccer betting provider, I assume that the ball will once again be played continuously across until half-time …
The bookies didn’t expect Fiorentina to struggle so much last week! The “Viola” traveled to Eastern Europe as clear favorites, but the result was one of the most boring games of the entire European Cup season.
The two teams together did not even deserve to score half a goal in the nil-nil draw at the Doosan Arena, at least based on the chances they created.
With an xG value of 0.12 for the Czechs and 0.36 for the Italians, goalscoring chances worth seeing were few and far between. A week later, it looks like things will be just as tough
Viktoria Pilsen may not have been able to win at home, but the Czechs still managed to do something extraordinary, which is partly the reason for my current soccer bet.
Fiorentina’s failure to score in the first leg against Viktoria Pilsen ended the club’s record run in European Cup matches (21 consecutive games with a goal).
However, Florence are still unbeaten in the Europa Conference League this season (4 wins, 5 draws), which is why they are probably the favorites on the markets this time too – with an average of 1.58 even more clearly than a week ago!
In my Fiorentina Viktoria Pilsen prediction, I’m limiting myself to no goals being scored by either side before half-time. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the visitors managed to keep a clean sheet for 90 minutes.
Hold on: Viktoria Plzeň have kept a clean sheet in each of their last seven games in the Europa Conference League.
Only two teams have ever gone a longer run without conceding a goal in a European Cup match: Ajax in the 1987-88 Cup Winners’ Cup (9 games) and Arsenal in the 2005-06 Champions League (10 games).
Why I explicitly insist on a clean sheet until the break and don’t want to go beyond that, however, results from a careful analysis of the visitors’ tendencies to offer their spectators very little entertainment before the half-time whistle.
Viktoria Plzeň have scored just one first-half goal in the Europa Conference League this season. Conversely, eight of their nine goals in this competition have been scored after the break.
However, they have yet to concede a single goal in the first half themselves in this 2023/24 European Cup season…
And then there’s the following statistic, which serves as an additional argument for not expecting the Czechs to be showered with goals these days.
Viktoria Plzeň’s last three UECL games have all ended in goalless draws. In the first match against Fiorentina, the Czech side even fired just three shots and had only five touches of the ball in the opposition penalty area
If anyone is going to come out on top, however, it will probably be the team from the cradle of the renaissance – possibly with a goal scored in the final quarter of an hour to make the final score 1:0.
After all, Fiorentina have won all five home games against Czech teams in all competitions by a combined score of 11-2.
Incidentally, this is their first such game since a 3-0 win over Slovan Liberec in the 2016/17 edition of the Europa League.
Meanwhile, using the Interwetten app to place a home win bet will only result in a small payout…
Instead, I’d recommend you take a sub-2.5-goal bet, which is disproportionately high.
After everything I’ve told you so far in my Fiorentina Viktoria Pilsen betting tip, you should know by now why not many goals should be scored…
And yet the bookies are calling out impressive odds of around 1.95 for a successful under-2.5-goal tip!
Conclusion: For the match between Fiorentina and Viktoria Pilsen, I expect a goalless first half and a similarly tough encounter as in the first leg.
The impressions gathered so far clearly indicate that both teams are solid defensively, but should find it difficult to score goals on Thursday.
Another draw at half-time is therefore likely, based on the form and performances shown so far. The odds on offer are also right.
My Fiorentina Viktoria Pilsen prediction is therefore: 0-0 at the break
