Europa League, quarter-finals, Thursday, 18.04.2024
Marseille have their backs to the wall and are stuck in a results crisis. Les Phoceens have lost five competitive games in a row and are chasing a 2-1 deficit from the first leg.
However, I would not underestimate the French representative. Marseille have scored the second most expected goals (20.7 xG) in the Europa League and have the best attacker in their ranks.
For my Marseille Benfica Lisbon betting tip, I use my Interwetten betting bonus and play “Aubameyang scores” with odds of 2.15.
Jean-Louis Gasset was supposed to save the home side’s season. His start with five wins in a row looked promising. However, the 70-year-old is currently chasing defeat after defeat with his team.
Five wins in a row have recently been followed by five defeats in a row and now it’s do or die at the Orange Vélodrome: Do or Die!
The only constant in recent weeks has been an ageing striker who has emerged as the Europa League’s biggest weapon.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored ten goals in ten EL appearances and is the top scorer in the entire competition
The attacker is back in time for the decisive quarter-final second leg. After two league games without a goal of his own, OM’s number ten scored his team’s only goal in the dress rehearsal (1-3 against Lille).
Aubameyang had already scored in the first leg, keeping alive the French side’s chances of reaching the semi-finals.
Olympique Marseille’s top scorer has been on fire this EL season, scoring eight goals in his last seven European appearances and only failing to score in two of those seven matches
So far, Marseille have won four of their five EL home games and, of course, the ex-BVB pro has been the key figure. Spurred on by an already highly emotional crowd, Aubameyang has scored at least one goal in each of the last three EL home games (6 in total).
Mainly thanks to his qualities, the odds comparison of the sports betting providers is still relatively balanced. With odds of up to 2.43 to win, OM are even slight odds favorites.
Despite the 2-1 defeat in the first leg, the division of roles is not completely unrealistic. After all, Benfica have only scored one goal in two EL away games
I don’t blame you if you trust the Portuguese. However, I would only place a win bet with a “DNB clause”.
I had a look around the Betway app and found odds of 2.05 for “Benfica Lisbon (DNB) to win”.
The Eagles have not lost any of their five Europa League games so far and have recently even celebrated two wins in a row.
Even if Aubameyang spoils the OM supporters with a goal, a “Benfica Lisbon win” is not out of the question. This is mainly due to the home side’s defense, which has conceded “Over 1.5 goals” in each of the previous five competitive matches
This deficit should be known throughout Europe and is also reflected in the “expected goals conceded” by the home side. With the exception of Qarabağ (19.8 xGA), no other team in the EL has conceded more goals than Marseille (16.5 xGA).
But back to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The home side’s attacker doesn’t necessarily have to score from play for my Marseille Benfica Lisbon tip to work out.
Marseille have already taken five penalties this EL season – the most in the competition
I mention this figure because Aubameyang has the confidence to take the ball in the event of a penalty.
The Europa League’s top striker has scored exactly 30 percent of his ten EL goals (3) from the penalty spot
Marseille have their backs to the wall and will go on the offensive with an emotional home crowd.
That could produce a real spectacle and give Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang a few chances to score.
My Marseille Benfica Lisbon tip is therefore: “Aubameyang scores. “
