Copa Libertadores 2024, Friday, 20.09.2024 at 00:00
The top favorite wants to get into the top four! Flamengo Rio de Janeiro will play their first leg of the quarter-finals on Friday night, and the Brazilians are already well ahead in the Copa Libertadores.
The lead is very generous, especially because the first game is at home. In my Flamengo Atletico Penarol game, I’ll go into the clear odds of the bookies, find what I’m looking for at Bet-at-Home and tell you what speaks for the betting tip1 at under 4.5 goals – Bet-at-Home voucher on top!
2019 and 2022 – it wasn’t that long ago! Flamengo have been quite successful in the Copa Libertadores in recent years, so it was all the more surprising last season that they were knocked out in the round of 16 against Olimpia.
This season, they are aiming higher again and must remain confident and not give away any more leads. Things have been very interesting so far, because I can’t tell you that the team is winning all of its games!
The team has played eight times so far and won half of them. That may not sound like an accident-free journey, but you could put it like this: Flamengo simply always know how much effort to put in.
Even during the group stage, I only noticed two wins, and despite two defeats, it was enough to progress against Palestino, Bolivar and Millionarios. The preliminary round already showed that Flamengo have two faces:
2:0, 4:0, 3:0? The home games were more than convincing! Away, on the other hand, almost nothing went right, with defeats of 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1. As soon as the knockout round began, the Brazilians were once again conspicuous by their weakness on the road.
They won 2-0 at home against Bolivar, their opponents from the group stage, and could therefore afford to lose 1-0 away from home. So it remains the case that Flamengo always win at home without conceding a goal
If that also works on Friday, you could secure odds of 2.10 with Oddset. Of course, I also have to say: Since Flamengo is very weak away from home, they have to be ahead in the home game.
I could therefore also imagine placing a handicap bet. The same bookmaker gives us odds of 2.20 for betting tip 1 with a 0:1 HC, as the Brazilian representative is generally clearly favored.
A 1.40 meets a 7.50, so it is already obvious what is expected from which club. Bitter pill for Flamengo: top center forward Pedro scored 30 goals in 2024, but unfortunately suffered a cruciate ligament rupture in training with the national team at the beginning of September.
Winger Bruno Henrique should therefore be the man for the goals. He has not been particularly convincing in the center forward position in the last two games. Will Atletico Penarol suit him? The last time the two teams met in the group stage of the Copa was in 2019:
0:0 and 0:1, when Flamengo never got going. It would be very surprising for the visitors from Uruguay if they were to achieve the same feat again.
Atletico are back in the knockout round of the Copa Libertadores for the first time since 2011 and have five wins and three defeats to their name. This is striking: There have been no draws at all, and Flamengo have only drawn once.
They have always won at home against Rosario Central, Caracas and Atletico Mineiro, the results: 2:1, 2:0 and 5:0 – which is very reminiscent of the performances Flamengo produced in the previous round.
Although there was a 1-0 win away from home, there were also two defeats. In the round of 16 against The Strongest, Atletico got off to a good start with a 4-0 win, which meant they could afford the 1-0 defeat away from home.
In this respect, I think that whether it’s Atletico Penarol or Flamengo, these two teams are very similar in terms of both their strengths and weaknesses.
Home games? Gladly! Away games? Please no! Both Flamengo Rio de Janeiro and Atletico Penarol from Uruguay play like this in the Copa Libertadores. It’s just a shame that they won’t both be playing at home on Friday.
The advantage is on the side of the Brazilians, who have finished all their games at home without conceding a goal and with at least a two-goal lead. On the other hand, Atletico hardly have a strong record away from home.
Based on these facts, I have decided to bet on home strength and put the following tip into the race:
Flamengo win, we’ll see a maximum of four goals!
