Copa do Brasil quarter-final, Friday, 13.09.2024 at 02:45
The first leg of the quarter-final went 1-0 to Flamengo. Nicolas de la Cruz hit a corner with a lot of undercut into the five-meter area. Bruno Henrique rose highest to head the ball into the net.
It was the Rubro-Negro’s only shot on goal – a clear indication on which I am also basing my Flamengo Bahia tip. I found what I was looking for at Oddset and chose the odds of 1.71 for “Under 2.5 goals” in the match
Before you work your way through the best sports betting apps, I’ll summarize the starting position of this pairing for you.
Flamengo have won the last nine meetings against Bahia and are an attractive target with odds of up to 1.80 to win, especially with the betting providers without taxes.
Bahia are currently winless in three competitive games, have not scored in two of their last three matches and are priced at odds of around 4.50 to win
Before I get caught off guard in my Flamengo Bahia betting tip, however, I’m refraining from a three-way bet for the quarter-final second leg of the Copa do Brasil.
The tendencies of the two teams led me to the odds of 1.71 at ODDSET on “Under 2.5 goals” in the match.
The visitors have been coached by Rogerio Ceni for just over a year. The 51-year-old prefers to send his team out onto the pitch in a 4-3-1-2 formation, which makes the center extremely dense
In attack, Bahia are limited out of formation and do not always have the right solutions to threaten the opposition goal with many attacks.
The rule in recent Bahia games has been: no more than two goals in a match. Ten of the eleven previous encounters were based on this rule, with only one exception confirming this formula.
Tite set up a similar equation for Flamengo as a winning formula. The home side have kept eight of their last eleven games to “under 2.5 goals”
However, the Malvadao have only won five of those appearances, which makes me skeptical about a three-way bet.
Tite also relies on a back four for his team, but relies less on a midfield diamond and more on a 4-2-3-1 system with two classic vacuum cleaners.
In the first leg, the two positions in front of the back line were occupied by nominal central defender Leo Ortiz and his Chilean colleague Erick Pulgar. In other words: pure duel strength
Minimalism was the hallmark of the home side’s previous cup games – none of their five Copa do Brasil outings contained more than two goals.
In four of these five appearances, Flamengo contented themselves with one goal of their own – only in the first leg of the round of 16 against Palmeiras did the home side go one better and treat their supporters to two goal celebrations.
The back line was only breached once in five cup games. Apart from that, no ball has flown through the fingers of Flamengo’s cup goalkeeper Matheus Cunha.
For Bahia’s completed Copa do Brasil matches, we find hardly any deviations from the typical “under 2.5-goal game”. The last five appearances in the Brazilian Cup have all contained “Under 2.5 goals.”
If we look at their performances in domestic league competition, there is further evidence to suggest a low-scoring game.
Bahia have only conceded 27 goals in 25 games and, with 27.1 goals conceded, are one of the six best defenses to concede.
From their 4-3-1-2 formation, Bahia rarely press in attack, preferring to concentrate on keeping the central spaces in front of the back line tight.
No other team in Brazil’s Serie A has won fewer balls in the final third of the pitch than the seventh-placed side (2.5 per game)
As in the first leg, I expect a rather uneventful match, characterized more by intense duels than big chances.
Together, Flamengo 1 and Bahia 3 had fewer than five shots on goal in the first quarter-final duel.
For my Flamengo Bahia tip, I therefore choose odds of 1.71 at Oddset and play “Under 2.5 goals in the match”.
