Bundesliga matchday 33, Sunday, 11.05.2025 at 17:30
Ahead of matchday 33, Frankfurt (3rd) and St. Pauli (14th) are already pretty close to their respective goals for the season. The eagle bearers are well on their way to qualifying for the upcoming Champions League season.
The visitors from northern Germany are already content with staying out of the relegation places, which is quite likely with a five-point lead.
St. Pauli have done a great job against the ball this season and have hardly had any lapses at the back. However, they will be missing some key players at the weekend, which will jeopardize the balance of the promoted team.
In addition, Alexander Blessin’s side have the weakest attacking line in the German top flight, having scored just 26 goals so far.
Frankfurt, on the other hand, are still one of the best attacking teams in Germany’s top flight and have clear advantages in their own stadium.
The hosts benefit from this quite clearly in the Frankfurt St. Pauli betting tip. My recommendation: “Victory Frankfurt with handicap -1” with odds of 2.50 at Bet-at-home.
The bookmakers’ prediction?
There is a clear tendency of the bookmakers that fits my Frankfurt St. Pauli prediction. A home win for the Eagles is at odds of around 1.55.
This increases my urge to use the Bet-at-home bonus for “Win Frankfurt with handicap -1”. After all, the Hessians have never lost a Bundesliga home game against the Kiezkickers (3S, 3U).
The visitors have already set a new club record this season with 17 away points, but I don’t think they should expect too much against SGE. The win odds of just over 6.00 also point to this.
AI prediction Frankfurt vs. St. Pauli: ChatGPT
The ChatGPT survey produced a similar result. According to the AI forecast, “Over 2.5 goals” is not a big risk, which primarily depends on the hosts’ attack. Bet365 gives you odds of 1.68 for this variant.
The following two AI predictions clearly show that Eintracht are the favorites. The artificial intelligence directs us to Interwetten with a recommendation for “Frankfurt to score in both halves”, where you can expect odds of 2.25.
All in all, ChatGPT’s recommendations seem a little bolder. The highest risk includes “Win Frankfurt with handicap -2”. In my opinion, the AI goes a step too far, even if the odds of 4.45 at NEO.bet are quite tempting.
Analysis: Frankfurt vs. St. Pauli
Frankfurt have come out of three of the four previous Bundesliga matches without conceding a goal. The Hessians’ defense has exuded more stability in recent weeks.
The Eagles are hard to beat at home. So far, the hosts have won almost half of their home games by at least a two-goal margin (7/16).
I expect a similar result in my Frankfurt St. Pauli betting tip. Dino Toppmöller no longer has to coordinate a double burden with his squad and can send a rested squad into the last home game of the season.
In general, SGE are in a pretty positive phase of the season. Frankfurt have lost just one of their seven previous Bundesliga ties and have won all of their last three home games without conceding a goal.
Odds Analysis
Frankfurt and St. Pauli have already collected nine white vests each. Especially in the first half, both teams generally exude the necessary concentration to prevent conceding a goal.
Apart from Bayern (13), no other Bundesliga team has conceded fewer goals in the first half this season than SGE (15) and Kiezkicker (17).
If we follow this trail, the odds of 3.30 at Winamax for “Under 0.5 goals in the first half” could turn out to be a real jackpot.
Frankfurt vs. St. Pauli: Unwanted rotation
The Kiezkicker are rarely lured out of their basic order by the opposing teams. The Blessin team has covered the most kilometers in the league (3,857.1).
The runs are always specifically coordinated, so that although intensive runs are necessary, hardly any sprints have to be put on. Only the players in the FC Augsburg kit (6841) have covered fewer sprints this season than the promoted team from northern Germany (6877).
It is an art to be the second-best defensive team in the Bundesliga (37) after Bayern (32). Equally remarkable is the low number of goals conceded (356 = 4th) or the 43.4 goals conceded (5th).
In addition to the team’s good tactical attitude and will, it is the ability to send a well-coordinated team onto the pitch week after week that has made this scenario possible.
St. Pauli (40) have made the fewest changes to their starting eleven in the league. However, Blessin will be without his goalkeeper for the match against Frankfurt, as well as the two central defenders Van der Heyden and Mets, captain Jackson Irvine and full-back James Sands. That will take a lot of stability away from the visitors
More games than goal celebrations
Because of the aforementioned absences in the Frankfurt St. Pauli tip, I don’t expect the visitors’ defense to reach the level of recent weeks.
The Kiezkicker’s attacking play cannot offer any real added value in this pairing either. St Pauli have scored just 26 goals in 32 matchdays – their lowest tally in the German top flight.
No other Bundesliga team has left the pitch without scoring more often this season than Blessing’s side (16). The newly promoted side have now gone two matchdays without scoring.
The rate of converted shots (10.7 per cent) is only good enough for 17th place in the league and 3.4 shots on goal per matchday is even the weakest value.
My Frankfurt St. Pauli tip:
Nikola Vasilj has prevented the most goals against of all Bundesliga goalkeepers (8.4). His absence will have just as much of an impact on the result as the other absentees in Alexander Blessin’s team.
Furthermore, Frankfurt are brimming with confidence after three home wins in a row (each time without conceding a goal). The second-best expected attacking line in the German top flight (62.9 xG) should be able to cause major problems for the newly-formed visiting team.
My Frankfurt St. Pauli tip: Frankfurt win by at least two goals difference
