Bundesliga Matchday 3, Saturday, 14.09.2024 at 15:30
VfL Bochum have some catching up to do! Zero points and no goals after two matchdays. The club, which kept itself in the Bundesliga with a spectacular relegation second leg against Düsseldorf, needs to improve.
In the transfer market, the club from the Ruhr area has struck again, signing Koji Miyoshi. Whether he can bring a breath of fresh air to Bochum’s game remains to be seen. The away game against Breisgau will be difficult.
I expect Freiburg to get off to a better start, as they are more stable at this early stage, and in my Freiburg Bochum betting tip I’m going for the Merkur Bets odds that the hosts will score first. Does the AI go along with this?
A 3:1 win in the Bundesliga opener against runners-up and rivals Stuttgart whets the appetite for more. However, the hunt for points was postponed. Julian Schuster’s team came away empty-handed with an unspectacular 2-0 defeat at record champions Bayern.
He takes over from Christian Streich, who left his post after 13 years as head coach and also chased the new coach around the training pitch as a player for many years
The prediction of the betting providers
After a weak start to the season for Bochum, who are still waiting for their first goal and point of the season and have yet to find their feet, VfL are only the underdogs in the third game of the season at odds of 4.70.
The bookmakers expect Freiburg to win and are still offering hot odds of over 1.70. In this case at Winamax, where not only can a Winamax new customer bonus of €100 be claimed as a free bet, but also 91 percent of users who have placed a bet on this market have gone for a home win. Nine percent are going for the draw (3.95).
KI prediction Freiburg vs. Bochum: This is what ChatGPT is betting on.
So much for what the community is tackling. But what does the artificial intelligence actually say about this Bundesliga match? If ChatGPT were able to place betting slips, the bets would look like this.
We have requested a low, medium and high risk bet. I’m a fan of lower odds and think the 1.64 for at least two Freiburg goals is worth seeing. I’m already assuming that Freiburg will score the first goal. A second at home is absolutely realistic against the bottom of the table
For the “Medium risk” option, the AI has the combination of “Both teams score and over 2.5 goals” up its sleeve. With this option, we scrape the 2.00 mark, achieving a 1.83.
Personally, both the number of goals and the Bochum goal are too tricky for me. I feel similarly about the 5.40 odds that Freiburg will win by at least three goals, the ChatGPT bet with high risk.
I see Freiburg ahead, but at the same time expect a reaction from Bochum after their weak start to the season
Analysis: Freiburg vs. Bochum
VfL got off to a 0:1 start in Leipzig. As in last season’s away game at the Red Bulls, the hosts managed to make life difficult for a long time. Only this time Leipzig managed to take the lead.
Bochum were able to keep up well for long stretches and carve out one or two chances themselves, but ultimately it wasn’t enough and that’s why I’ve also tackled the double chance X2 in my Bochum Gladbach tip for the second matchday
I have combined this combination with a Gladbach goal in the hope that the partly newly formed offense around Tim Kleindienst will ignite. The ex-Heidenheim player had already made a strong impression in previous games.
He was well integrated into the team right from the start, scoring against the champions from Leverkusen on the first matchday and finally scoring the 1:0 in the 2:0 win against Bochum
Quota analysis
I’ve already gone through the AI odds. The only one I think is great is the Gladbach double. Winamax, a betting provider without tax, has a lot more to offer.
I like to take a look at the “Hot” category of the French bookie. Here, odds are displayed that are particularly popular with users at the moment. In addition to the Freiburg treble, the double chance 1X is currently a particular hit
Customers are either pouncing on the deep 1.23 odds with high stakes, or they are being used in combination tickets. Otherwise, the odds won’t be too profitable. I am quite convinced that Freiburg will take at least one point.
In terms of the goal odds, however, I’m struggling this time, as I’m not assuming a total escalation, but both the under and over odds are not in the right ranges.
Only the self-made combination of 1-4 goals in the match and the double chance 1X at 1.54 total odds still looks good to me. But in such a high-scoring Bundesliga, a Freiburg v Bochum game can escalate very quickly
Freiburg vs Bochum odds: Weak away statistics for VfL
I’m therefore sticking to my prediction that a brave Freiburg side will strike first at home. Especially as Bochum finished last season with a horrendous record away from home. Ten points from 17 games, including just two wins.
This made the coup in the relegation play-off against Düsseldorf all the more surprising. The almost relegated team conceded 45 goals, almost an average of three goals per match and only scored 16 times themselves.
And Freiburg at home? Although they were unable to repeat the strong figures of 2022/23, they only conceded the full number of points five times
What about Gregoritsch?
Of course, we can’t forget to take a look at the missing players. Michael Gregoritsch’s involvement at Freiburg is open. The Austrian has recently been struggling with a torn muscle fiber. Against Bayern and Stuttgart, his compatriot Junior Adamu played in the center.
Daniel-Kofi Kyereh is also unavailable. Bochum are still without Bernardo and their defense is also limited by the absence of Ivan Ordets. Up front, Peter Zeidler, who took over in the summer, can draw from the full
Bochum played the first two games with a two-man front line, but it remains to be seen whether Zeidler will stick with it after two defeats without scoring a goal during the two-week break. The 3:1 test against Essen at least saw a double attack on the pitch again.
Freiburg also warmed up in private at the Europa Park Stadium in a 6:0 test against Basel
The match between Freiburg and Bochum has already been played 26 times, with Freiburg easily leading the statistics with 13-4-9, with draws being a rarity. The last draw at league level was a 1-1 draw in Breisgau in 2010.
Last season, Freiburg prevailed 2:1, which the AI certainly had in mind when making its medium risk bet. Sportclub have recently enjoyed playing Bochum, winning five Bundesliga matches in a row
My Freiburg Bochum tip:
Bochum have been a welcome opponent for Freiburg Sportclub in recent years. Five league wins in a row and the Breisgauers have usually started stronger. Freiburg have scored first in the last seven games.
The statistics are on my side, as is the fact that Freiburg, with a largely unchanged squad, are more mature at this stage of the season than Bochum, who are still waiting for their first goal and point of the season.
Rhythm and stability are particularly important at the start of the season and then there is Bochum’s poor away record and the fact that Freiburg only lose very few games at Europa Park Stadium.
At Merkur Bets, by the way, you can take my odds without any risk of loss. As a new customer, you will not only receive a €10 freebet with no deposit, but you will also get 100 percent of your stake of up to €90 back as a freebet if your first qualifying combined bet is unsuccessful.
My Freiburg Bochum tip: Freiburg score the 1st goal!
