Bundesliga Matchday 3, Saturday, 14.09.2024 at 15:30
It’s happened! After Bayer Leverkusen marched to the title without defeat in the last Bundesliga season, the Werkself have already been hit on the second matchday of the new season.
The question now is: Does the 3-2 defeat of the Rhinelanders against Leipzig play a special role in my Hoffenheim Leverkusen betting tip?
I would like to focus less on the loss of the three points and more on the manner in which the defeat came about.
After all, my main tip of “Over 3.5 goals” is largely based on the statistical fact that Xabi Alonso’s team is struggling with noticeable defensive problems at the start of the season.
The three goals conceded against RB were therefore no coincidence. It is fitting that TSG Hoffenheim are also not making a solid impression at the moment and are probably the best sparring partner for an open exchange of blows
The signs in my Hoffenheim Leverkusen prediction are therefore unapologetically pointing to a goal festival. Beyond that, however, I will of course provide you with numerous other betting alternatives.
And to get straight to the point: I see problematic times ahead for Bayer Leverkusen, which can be turned into cash for sports betting fans with a little creativity.
At the moment, the bookmakers are still convinced of Leverkusen’s potential, which in turn makes the high odds for “anti-Bayer bets” all the more attractive
The betting operators’ forecast?
Just a glance at the classic 1×2 odds makes it clear: bookmakers such as Bet-at-home (including Bet-at-home voucher) want nothing to do with a possible twilight of the gods under the Bayer cross.
The odds for an away win are just 1.60. Hoffenheim’s success is priced at 5.10 and the draw comes in at an above-average 4.75.
In short: Despite the away disadvantage, Leverkusen go into the match as clear favorites. As a result, the “Double Chance X1” is ranked at odds of 2.50 and is one of my absolute top recommendations
KI prediction Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen: This is what ChatGPT is betting on.
ChatGPT even goes one step further with his Hoffenheim Leverkusen AI prediction and recommends the Hoffenheim success as a high risk bet. Here I would be more reassured with 6.00 odds overall, but even so I do not oppose this risk tip.
With the medium-risk bet, however, I put a stop sign in front of the AI right at the beginning. The Bayer win is suggested here with a handicap of -1.
Since I’m not even convinced of a simple Leverkusen victory, I’m of course even less convinced of a handicap victory. In my opinion, the successes of the previous season are being priced in here.
The low-risk tip is “Over 2.5 goals”. In terms of content, I fully agree here, as my main tip is even a shelf above that. However, the odds below 1.40 for a game with more than two goals are primarily suitable for a combination ticket:
Analysis: Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen
To be clear: I really don’t have a clue where TSG Hoffenheim are heading this season. I can imagine anything from a relegation battle to a European Cup surprise.
Hoffenheim’s start to the season with one win (against Kiel) and one defeat (against Frankfurt) fits the picture all too well.
What is clear, however, is that they have remained true to their penchant for spectacle. After two completed matchdays, they have a goal difference of 5:5.
If the Kraichgauers manage to score more than 1.5 goals in front of their home crowd against Leverkusen, they will be due great odds of 2.40. A 2:2, for example, wouldn’t make me fall off my chair in horror
With Bayer Leverkusen, the general question is whether the Alonso magic has worn off a bit. In fact, their recent record is by no means outstanding.
Including pre-season preparations, only three of the last seven games have been won. The Super Cup win against Stuttgart also had to be won on penalties.
The flood of goals conceded is particularly striking. They have conceded two goals in three of their last four games. Only the 1:0 win in the DFB Cup against lower-ranked Carl Zeiss Jena was unscathed.
So if you have your eye on a Leverkusen win despite my reservations, you could focus on the bet “Bayer win & both teams score”. Strong odds of around 2.30 await here
Analysis of odds
It’s no secret: Just like me, top bookmakers like Oddset Germany are expecting a high-scoring clash between Hoffenheim and Leverkusen.
The over/under market has already been mentioned, but even the classic “both teams score” is estimated at odds of around 1.40, which is well below average.
However, it needs to be clarified how the expected flood of goals will be distributed. The aforementioned 2:2 is closer to me than a 4:2 victory for Leverkusen.
All in all, I expect an open exchange of blows, which will ultimately be played at eye level. With odds of 2.65, a “draw at half-time” is therefore a good betting alternative in my view
Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen odds: Hoffenheim with home problems!
At this point, it is of course interesting to take a look at the respective home and away statistics.
Unsurprisingly, Bayer Leverkusen were by far the best away team in the Bundesliga in the previous season. A record of 14 wins and three draws was simply impressive.
However, the last three competitive games that Bayer did not play in front of a home crowd were not really convincing, with a 3-0 defeat to Bergamo, a 1-0 loss to Kaiserslautern and a 1-0 win against Jena.
Hoffenheim, meanwhile, were not a home power in 2023/24. Only six of 17 home games were won. And in their first home game of the season, their own defense once again failed to hold firm in a 3-2 defeat to Kiel.
However, if you want to bet directly on the result, a 2-2 draw would give you odds of 13.5.
Goals galore in the direct duels!
A look at the direct comparison statistics makes it clear: even in the recent past, the clash between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen has not exactly been one of the Bundesliga’s great bores.
A total of eight goals were scored in the two matches in the previous season alone. Bayer narrowly held the upper hand in each case (3:2, 2:1).
Significantly, in four of the last six meetings, the bet “Over 3.5 goals” would have led to success. The other two matches were close, with three goals each.
Overall, the balance speaks in Leverkusen’s favor. Bayer have won 19 of the 33 duels so far. Hoffenheim have only won eight of their six draws.
Leverkusen have won each of their last three Bundesliga encounters, but have not conceded a goal in the process.
Hoffenheim’s poor home record against Bayer is particularly striking. TSG have lost ten of their 17 home games against the Rhinelanders
With 34 goals conceded, they have conceded an average of two goals per game. Bitter: For the bet “Over 1.5 Bayer goals”, the bookmakers are only offering odds of 1.35 for the upcoming clash on Saturday.
Hoffenheim’s last home win against Leverkusen was some time ago.
In the 2019/20 season, 1899 won 2:1. In the following four home games, they only picked up one point in total
My Hoffenheim Leverkusen tip:
I’m probably not going too far out on a limb when I predict that the game between 1899 Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday will not end 0-0. Rather, a wild game with plenty of penalty area action is likely.
In fact, it might even be in the Kraichgauers’ interest to engage the defending champions in an exchange of blows, as this is how TSG feel most comfortable.
It is difficult to predict who will come out on top in the end.
That’s why I’m limiting my Hoffenheim Leverkusen betting tip to a goal bet: There will be over 3.5 goals in the game.
