Freiburg – Dortmund Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 14 on Sunday, 14.12.2025 at 15:30 CET
During the week, Signal Iduna Park blossomed completely in yellow and black, as the Champions League opponents also wore the same colours. But in the end, the result was not right from BVB’s point of view.
A few days later, things should go better this time. Because in my Freiburg Dortmund prediction, I bet more than just a good free bet without deposit on the Black and Yellows.
After all, Borussia is superior to their opponents in terms of play: Kovac’s team produces an average of 1.77 goals per game, while the Breisgau team was only in international action on Thursday.
In short: The Dortmund odds for an away three are on average 2.22 – high enough to land on a single bet slip.
What gives my Freiburg Dortmund tip an additional boost is not only the Oddset odds boost, but first and foremost the direct comparison.
BVB have won all of their last seven Bundesliga duels against SC Freiburg – and have scored at least three goals each time.
There has never been such a streak in the Bundesliga: No other team has ever won longer against a single opponent and always scored 3+ goals.
Dortmund’s only comparable run dates back to the 1960s, when the Black and Yellows also won seven times in a row against Schalke 04 with at least three goals.
Freiburg – Dortmund Prediction & Betting Tips
You know, I personally don’t want to take too much risk in this encounter, but one or the other daring Freiburg Dortmund tip could still be worth putting to the test.
Win Dortmund without conceding a goal, for example! The odds average 3.90 – disproportionately high when you consider that the Black and Yellows have collected the most clean sheets in the league this season (7).
Dortmund scores in both halves, on the other hand, is really a 50-50 thing. Nevertheless, it can become a value bet, because for one euro stake you get an average of three back in the betting shop.
What you need to know about Freiburg vs. Dortmund betting
- Freiburg concede the fewest shots at home of all Bundesliga teams (8.67 shots per 90 minutes), less than Bayern and Leverkusen.
- Dortmund scores an average of 1.77 goals per game in the Bundesliga. In addition, BVB has the second-best value in the league with 13.01 xGA (Expected Goals Against).
- In Dortmund’s away games under coach Niko Kovac, more than 3.5 goals have only been scored twice. This is the lowest rate for “over 3.5 goals” in the Bundesliga.
- Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund) is the most favoured goalscorer for the upcoming match, having scored 28 and 21 goals respectively in the last two seasons and has already scored five goals this season.
Freiburg – Dortmund: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Freiburg Dortmund AI forecast spat out two to three suggestions for football betting, which I promptly subjected to a critical evaluation for you.
The Dortmund/Dortmund selection does not convince me 100%, but at an odds of about 3.50 and after a look at the data situation, you can think about it.
This is because the sports club rarely puts in top performance against top teams, while no other Bundesliga club in the league has won more away games after leading at half-time than BVB (4).
Julian Brandt scores at odds around 4.40 is another recommendation of our data model. However, I would be reluctant to recommend this to you.
Although the BVB player was involved in six goals against the sports club, these were only assists and not his own goals.
Therefore, I personally would prefer a goal bet on his teammate Serhou Guirassy to this proposal.
The best odds for Freiburg vs. Dortmund
Let’s take a look at the Freiburg Dortmund odds – a duel that the bookmakers classify as interesting, but in which BVB is slightly ahead.
A home win by Freiburg is rated 3.40. The markets see the Breisgau team as outsiders, but give them chances – especially through home advantage, strong defense and transition moments. The odds signal that a victory would not be impossible, but surprising.
The draw is 3.50. The bookmakers calculate that the game will remain close for a long time, Freiburg will act compactly and Dortmund will need time to find gaps. A point for the hosts is conceivable, but not the primary scenario.
For an away win of Dortmund there is 2.10. The bookies see BVB as slight favourites – based on individual class, pace and experience in close games. At the same time, there is room for tactical subtleties that Freiburg could use.
Freiburg vs Dortmund Match Analysis:
Dortmund go into this duel with a 12-point lead over their upcoming opponents, but Freiburg will not be an easy task. Kovac knows that negligence will be punished dearly, but BVB’s form curve suggests that they can still deliver.
Although the visitors will not be in complete control of possession – last year they only had 46% possession at this stadium, but still scored 1.95 more xG than Freiburg.
Meanwhile, Dortmund’s three-man backline provides defensive support, while Serhou Guirassy and Karim Adeyemi mercilessly finish the tempo counter-attacks. Freiburg must therefore be careful when they move up offensively so as not to open up unnecessary spaces.
Freiburg itself relies on aggressive pressing: The guests only allow the fourth fewest passes per defensive action in the Bundesliga, which puts the defense under pressure.
Dortmund’s ball skills in their own third allow them to bypass this pressing, which is dangerous for the home side. Offensively, the Breisgau team is strong in front of their home crowd and scores an average of 2.17 goals per home game.
Dortmund must therefore remain compact, minimise mistakes and play patiently to contain Freiburg’s dangerous attacking efforts. Chances on both sides are possible, but Dortmund’s experience and quality could make the difference in the end.
Freiburg Form Check
Freiburg have won just two of their last nine Bundesliga games and are on 16 points after 13 games – their worst haul in seven years (2018/19: 14 points).
The home form is positive: The Breisgau team have been unbeaten at home since 23 August 2025 and have finished their last five Bundesliga home games (W3 D2) without defeat.
This corresponds to their longest streak under Julian Schuster in the winter of 2024/25. With 11 home points and 13 goals, they have already scored more goals after six home games than in just three previous seasons, most recently in 2003/04.
Particularly remarkable: Freiburg picked up seven points against German teams that, like Dortmund, play in Europe (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Mainz). However, the upcoming home game against Dortmund will be the toughest test so far.
Freiburg have already conceded eight goals against Leverkusen and Bayern – opponents at a similar level to Dortmund. The chances of Europe next year remain slim. Our forecasting model gives Freiburg only a 10.2% probability of finishing in the top six.
Offensively, there is a problem despite 20 goals: Half of the goals come from set-pieces, the highest value in the league together with Union Berlin.
With 3.77 shots on target per game, Freiburg is one of the five weakest teams in the Bundesliga in this category. Creativity and precision in attack urgently need to increase.
Dortmund Form Check
Last weekend, Dortmund ended Hoffenheim’s unbeaten run and returned to winning ways with goals from Julian Brandt and Nico Schlotterbeck.
The success extended the Bundesliga unbeaten streak to six games. Overall, the start to the season was strong for the Black and Yellows: only one defeat in the first 13 Bundesliga games – the last time they managed to do so was in 2018/19.
Dortmund also remained competitive in the Champions League despite a 2-2 draw against Bodö/Glimt on Wednesday.
Since the March international break, Dortmund have suffered just one defeat in 21 Bundesliga games, and in Europe’s top five leagues, only Bayern have fewer defeats in this period.
The defence is a real trump card: In the 2-0 win against Hoffenheim, Dortmund celebrated their seventh clean sheet of the season, level with Bayern and Leipzig – a league high.
With only 11 goals conceded, they have the second-best defence after Bayern (9) and are also just behind the Munich team (0.86) in Expected Goals Against (xGA) with 1.00 per game.
The strong form of goalkeeper Gregor Kobel underpins this stability: Among all keepers with at least 500 minutes of play, Kobel has the highest save rate in the league with 73%.
Defensive organisation, individual class and consistency make Dortmund one of the strongest teams in the Bundesliga.
