Bundesliga match day 14, Friday, 12/13/2024 at 8:30 p.m.
The biggest surprise of the 2024/25 Bundesliga season so far? For me, it’s definitely VfL Wolfsburg, who are at the top of the table after 13 matchdays – even ahead of the established SC Freiburg.
But now there is a direct duel on the schedule that has it all. Can the sports club turn the tables with a victory against VfL and initiate a change of position?
In my opinion, however, the “wolves” have a better chance of taking advantage of their good form and beating the Breisgauers in the Europa-Park Stadium.
For my part, I am not assuming that the Lower Saxony team will leave empty-handed when using the Interwetten voucher for my Freiburg Wolfsburg tip.
The sports club will face VfL for the 41st time in the Bundesliga.
The Wolves ended their five-game winless streak in Freiburg last season (2 draws, 3 defeats) with a 2-1 win in April, which secured their first away win against SC since April 2018.
Furthermore, no other team in the Bundesliga, except VfL, has won their last four games. The Lower Saxony team are definitely on the road to success.
In my Freiburg Wolfsburg prediction, I’m playing it safe, but an aggressive away win tip at a significantly higher odds would probably not be amiss either!
The betting providers’ prediction?
The Freiburg Wolfsburg odds paint an interesting picture of the upcoming duel and the opinions of the bookmakers.
Freiburg is slightly favored by most bookies with odds of 2.20 on average, which indicates their strong home form and good performance this season.
In contrast, VfL’s win rate is 3.40 on average, describing the guests as a difficult opponent who is quite capable of putting a stop to the Breisgauer.
It could actually be an even match, but personally, I tend to side with the in-form “wolves”.
KI prediction Freiburg vs Wolfsburg: That’s what ChatGPT tips
The Freiburg Wolfsburg AI prediction for the Friday game of the already 14th Bundesliga match day, prepared by ChatGPT on request, offers an interesting mix of different risk tips.
The bold betting suggestion of the type “Wolfsburg win & both teams score” is risky, but at the same time also very interesting.
Wolfsburg has already won its last two league games exactly like this, which automatically increases the possibility of a repeat result of this kind on Friday. For those willing to take risks, this could be a very worthwhile tip.
The medium-risk tip for “Over 3.5 goals in the game” seems uninteresting at first glance, but the statistics and odds surprisingly favor it.
Wolfsburg has been involved in eight Bundesliga games this season in which more than 3.5 goals have been scored, which is even more than teams like Leverkusen, Bayern or Dortmund. Therefore, this tip offers more value than one might initially assume.
I also support the low-risk tip for the betting option “Double Chance X2”. Even at the low odds, it is a bet that seems almost inevitable given the current form of the Wolves.
Analysis: Freiburg vs Wolfsburg
Freiburg have had a solid season so far and are in a respectable seventh place after only suffering one defeat in their last five Bundesliga games. However, they have had difficulties scoring goals, which has particularly affected them in games against top teams.
However, they are strong at home, with only one defeat in the Europa-Park Stadium out of a total of six Bundesliga games (4 wins, 1 draw).
But the weak 1-1 draw against Hoffenheim last weekend and the surprising elimination in the DFB Cup round of 16 against a third-division team like Bielefeld raise legitimate questions about their mental state.
Wolfsburg, on the other hand, are currently the Bundesliga team in the best form, having won their last four games. After their 4-3 win in Mainz, they have not been beaten in seven competitive games.
They are currently sitting pretty in fifth place in the Bundesliga and with 29 goals scored, they are currently the only team in the league to have scored more than any of the top three teams.
They are also strong away from home, with four wins and one draw in their last five away games, scoring at least twice in each of those games.
The visitors are now aiming for their first five-game winning streak since January 2023, when they defeated Freiburg 6-0. A good omen?
Incidentally, it is more than surprising how many players are currently injured at VfL, but they are still on the road to victory.
Ratings analysis
Mohamed Amoura’s goal rate of 3.80 on average is really generous and speaks for itself, especially considering that the attacker has repeatedly demonstrated his strong form in recent weeks.
There is also some very interesting data that suggests he could actually score next Friday – I’ll go into that in more detail in a moment!
The “VfL over 2.5 goals” bet at odds of 5.90 is also a remarkable tip that is dripping with value. The risk is indeed high, but the potential profit is also enormous.
If the Lower Saxony team manages to gain momentum and dominate the game early, then they could actually steamroll the sports club on Friday and even crack the 2.5-goal mark.
Freiburg vs. Wolfsburg odds: My candidate starts with A
If you are looking for a hot tip for a goal bet, then you should definitely watch Mohammed Amoura.
The Wolfsburg player has already been involved in 11 goals in his first 11 Bundesliga games (5 goals, 6 assists) – an impressive record that no other player can top for VfL at this stage of the season.
Also interesting: Only Omar Marmoush (Frankfurt) and Vincenzo Grifo (Freiburg) have provided more assists than Amoura this season.
It’s just a shame that top betting providers don’t explicitly allow you to bet on “assist providers” without tax on everything.
The new customer bonus from Interwetten, on the other hand, offers you a real “template”. Click on the graphic and get up to 100 euros for your bets.
VfL is even more dangerous away from home!
Freiburg’s current form is likely to worry many a fan.
They have only won one of their last six competitive matches – a 3-1 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach – while drawing three and losing two of the other five.
In their first ten matches under Julian Schuster, they looked much better, with seven wins and only three defeats.
This dip in form is worrying, and the sports club will have to do everything in its power to turn things around if it is to avoid being relegated to the middle of the table anytime soon.
The situation for the sports club on Friday will be particularly explosive due to Wolfsburg’s strong away form. Alongside Bayern Munich, the Wolves are one of the most feared away teams in the Bundesliga.
Only the aforementioned FCB has scored more points (17) and more goals (24) on foreign soil this season than Wolfsburg, who have achieved their best Bundesliga history with 13 points and 16 goals in their first six away games.
This underlines the enormous strength of VfL Wolfsburg away from home, which will pose a major challenge for Freiburg.
Another aspect that could rob Freiburg of its nerve is Wolfsburg’s impressive morale and ability to step up in the final stages of a game. Their 4-3 win against Mainz was a prime example of this strength.
They have already scored seven goals in the last 15 minutes of a game, with only VfB Stuttgart (9) and Bayern Munich (10) scoring more in this time span this season.
In contrast, SC Freiburg is the only team in the league that has not yet scored a single goal in the final stages of games (2024/25).
Freiburg will be challenged by Wolfsburg’s strong away form and ability to create chances in the dying minutes of a game.
It will be interesting to see how SCF responds to these statistics and whether they are able to hold their own against a team that has performed so strongly away from home this season.
I have my doubts that Freiburg will be able to keep up.
My Freiburg Wolfsburg prediction:
At the end of my Freiburg Wolfsburg prediction, I see the Wolves as the slight favorites in this encounter, even though the Sport-Club is known to play well at home.
However, VfL is currently in impressive form and is on an upward trend, while SCF in particular has shown some weaknesses recently.
The bet on “Double Chance X2 & Both Teams to Score” therefore seems sensible, even if I can understand if you would prefer an away win for the Lower Saxony team on your betting slip.
My bet: Double Chance X2 & Both Teams to Score
