Serie A, Monday, 05.05.2025 at 20:45
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Incidentally, that also applies to me personally when I think about my Genoa AC Milan tip. I am convinced that the Rossoneri will keep their foot on the gas when they visit Liguria.
It’s a bit strange what Genoa are doing at the moment. Patrick Vieira’s team had a really good run in between – especially at home, where they looked really solid at times with five wins from six games.
But right now? The trend is clearly going in the other direction. Two defeats in a row, most recently against Como and Lazio, both times without scoring, and in general they seem a bit powerless.
In the last five games, they’ve scored only one goal – that’s not enough to really get a foothold in Serie A.
Sure, their 13-point lead over the relegation zone gives Genoa some security, but it feels like the team has been a bit too complacent.
They are simply lacking determination, both up front and at the back. And when you have to face a Milan side that is really hitting its stride, things can quickly get uncomfortable.
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The Rossoneri are traveling to the Ligurian Sea on Monday with plenty of momentum behind them.
Three away wins in a row, and all of them without conceding a goal: first against Venezia, then the city derby against Inter and most recently Udinese – that’s definitely impressive.
The interesting thing is that Milan had previously lost six of their eight away games, so they were under quite a bit of pressure themselves. But that seems to be exactly what Conceiçãos team has now turned into something positive.
The defense suddenly looks stable again, Pulisic is currently bringing a lot of energy up front, and you get the feeling that belief in Europe is alive again – even if there is still a long way to go in the league.
Milan is currently ninth, but the gap to sixth place is theoretically achievable. And even if they have to go through the Coppa Italia against Bologna in the end, you can tell that the team has flipped the switch and is now really putting its all into it again.
Genoa, on the other hand, has only picked up a single point in its last six home games against Milan – and in four of those games, the hosts didn’t even score a goal.
It almost seems as if the opponents from the fashion city always arrive in Liguria with a plan that works pretty reliably.
And to be honest, there is little to suggest that this will change at the moment.
Sure, Genoa can be nasty, especially when they dig in at the back – but even then you need counterattacks, moments of transition or a set piece that sticks.
But that’s exactly where the problem lies at the moment: the passing isn’t clean, there’s a lack of depth in the center, and little comes down the wings. As a result, the whole thing often looks more like a defensive exercise than an active game.
If you look at the statistics, it becomes even clearer: Milan have not conceded a goal in both halves in their last eight games.
And that’s exactly what they could build on – because Genoa currently lack the cutting edge to build consistent pressure over 90 minutes.
It’s more likely that Milan will start calmly, as they have done recently, then take a 1-0 lead in the first half and see out the game comfortably.
Pulisic, who also scored in Genoa last year, is in good form – and if he gets space, he’s dangerous.
It should be obvious why “Milan wins without conceding a goal” at odds of around 2.25 is my first betting choice.
This is closely followed by “Under 3.5 goals,” even if the odds are currently only 1.40 on average and therefore not exactly the most lucrative Genoa AC Milan prediction around.
Half-time/full-time “2/2” is my third promising tip for you. Like Inter and Napoli before them, Milan could also defend an early 1-0 lead until the final whistle on this matchday.
Conclusion: As you can see, the starting position is pretty clear. Milan are stable, have a goal in mind and know that they can’t afford to drop points here.
Genoa, on the other hand, look tired, harmless and, looking at the table, don’t have much to gain or lose.
If you ask me, an away win is the logical choice – and because Milan have kept three clean sheets in a row, the option “Milan to win to nil” is definitely worth a look.
For those who are a little more risk-averse, a 0-2 result is also a possibility – that would fit the picture perfectly.
My tip: AC Milan win
