Eredivisie matchday 31, Thursday, 25.04.2024
After a break of almost two weeks, Dutch first division soccer is back! With four match days to go, it’s time to pack your bags and head off to Euro 2024, where you want to become European champions in the country of your arch-rivals.
But the 31st matchday could already bring a little surprise. The Abe Lenstra Stadium has been a hot spot for the leaders for years and you can find out why in my Heerenveen PSV Eindhoven tip!
Unlike in neighboring Germany, the Dutch championship has still not been definitively decided even after 30 match days and an almost outstanding season for PSV.
Purely theoretically, Eindhoven could not pick up any more points in the remaining four matchdays, which would again “purely theoretically” be enough for Feyenoord to close the existing nine-point gap completely.
However, the probability of this actually happening is close to zero. Especially as the league leaders will now only have to deal with teams outside the current top eight
PSV got off to a brilliant start to the season and kept up the pace almost right to the end.
Peter Bosz’s men have not fallen into depression despite the Champions League round of 16 defeat to Dortmund in the second leg.
Instead, with the exception of the 3:1 defeat against Nijmegen, they have landed one three-pointer after another since then.
The sequence of the last three point games is particularly impressive, especially as they showed a class difference against Excelsior (2:0), AZ Alkmaar (5:1) and Vitesse Arnhem (6:0) on several occasions
After a brief break in the competition, the tension at the top of the table should be high enough for many experts to overcome the stumbling Heerenveen.
However, I have a slight quibble with the Heerenveen PSV Eindhoven odds, as the sports betting providers have estimated a win multiplier of just 1.35 for an away win …
After a break of almost two weeks and an easier remaining program compared to Feyenoord, Eindhoven are not necessarily dependent on defeating their upcoming opponents at all costs.
Of course, they will do everything in their power to do so, but the aforementioned win odds have been set too low in light of the recent duels against this unpleasant league rival – as I have already indicated.
Hold on: Eindhoven have only won one of their last 10 away games at the Abe Lenstra Stadion – and that “only” with an extremely meagre 1:0 in October 2022.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have had a turbulent few weeks and, to make matters worse, have dropped valuable points in the battle for a place in the Conference League play-offs.
Nevertheless, they can still join this “quartet” of teams if they can pick themselves up again – and the 2-0 win over Heracles on matchday 30 was an important step in that direction.
And if you’re not quite comfortable placing a handicap bet on the home side, you might like a classic over-2.5-goal bet as an alternative
The reason for this is not that I would rely solely on the well-known offensive power of PSV, but rather that this decision can be derived from the tendency of the opponent.
After all, Heerenveen is the Eredivisie club whose home games have broken the famous 2.5-goal barrier the most times in the league (12 out of 15).
However, as the bookies only offer you odds of 1.41 on average for this, I would not declare this bet a “must bet”.
While there are clear indications that Eindhoven could run into problems, there is no guarantee that goals will be scored at the Abe Lenstra Stadion
The first-round duel ended with a 2-0 win for the almost certain champions.
Eindhoven were still in dream form at the time and, with an xG value of 3.86, would certainly have deserved a goal or two more.
However, I have my doubts as to whether, five months later, Eindhoven are still as strong as they were back then.
The defeat against Dortmund in the Premier League has sapped some of the team’s enormous self-confidence, meaning that the second-round duel against Heerenveen could be much more even than many bookmakers are currently assuming.
Conclusion: Heerenveen have no choice, as they urgently need points to qualify for the Conference League play-offs in the final four matchdays.
Meanwhile, they can rely on the demonstrable problems that Eindhoven manifest whenever visits to Abe Lenstra are on the agenda.
That, coupled with a slight complacency at PSV, could ease the way to an extremely close game, the likes of which the bookies don’t seem to have on their radar.
However, in my Heerenveen PSV Eindhoven betting tip, I’m not looking for a big risk!
This is for Thursday: Home win with a handicap of +2.
