Bundesliga matchday 13, Sunday, 08.12.2024 at 17:30
After the disappointments in the DFB Cup, it’s time for Freiburg and Hoffenheim to turn their focus back to the Bundesliga. The Breisgauers in particular are under pressure after their embarrassment against a third division team.
On Saturday, they will face a TSG that is also looking for consistency. With weak performances and a patchy defense, the Kraichgauers appear to be a grateful opponent – at least at first glance.
However, a regional derby like this is known to have its own rules and Hoffenheim will do everything in their power to make a statement in front of their home crowd.
Find out in my Freiburg Hoffenheim betting tip whether Sportclub will manage to turn their fortunes around and whether TSG might slip below the line!
TSG Hoffenheim are going through a difficult phase and now, of all times, their fearsome opponents are visiting. Only one win from the last 11 competitive matches against the Breisgau side (2-1 in December 2021) speaks volumes.
Particularly painful: Only one point from the last five Bundesliga matches. Things don’t look any better at home either – Hoffenheim have been waiting in vain for a home win against Freiburg for five games, with the last one coming in September 2018 (3-1).
This first statistic alone clearly shows that the Kraichgauers are facing a real challenge. And of course, this has also influenced my Hoffenheim Freiburg prediction to a certain extent.
The betting providers’ forecast?
The Hoffenheim Freiburg odds reflect a tension that seems to be palpable.
With 2.70 for the hosts and 2.50 for an away win for the Breisgauers, the bookmakers are treading an extremely fine line between the two teams.
The Hoffenheim Freiburg odds for a draw of just 3.45 on average tops it all off and makes it clear how close the bookmakers think this Baden derby will be.
KI prediction Hoffenheim vs Freiburg: ChatGPT
The Freiburg Hoffenheim AI prediction offers some daring approaches, but not all of the tips hit the mark. In fact, I don’t like any of the three suggestions submitted by ChatGPT on request.
Nevertheless, I am not withholding them from you, but rather justifying my negative stance with facts and figures.
The risky option, “2:2 result bet”, seems unconvincing to me. Freiburg have conceded at least two goals this season almost exclusively against absolute top teams such as Dortmund, RB Leipzig or Bayern.
Hoffenheim are not currently in this group of first-class Bundesliga teams, even if they are in the Europa League phase. I therefore think this scenario is rather unlikely.
The second tip with supposedly medium risk intensity, “Over 3.5 goals in the game”, also gets a clear no from me.
Three of the last four direct duels have remained below this mark, and Sportclub usually approach games defensively under their new coach. So this prediction also misses the mark.
Finally, there is the low-risk option, “Double chance 1X”, which doesn’t convince me either.
The odds are too low to pass as a sensible bet, especially in view of Hoffenheim’s historically poor record against Freiburg, which I have already discussed at the beginning.
Analysis: Hoffenheim vs Freiburg
There is actually no explanation as to why Freiburg did not win when they visited Arminia during the week.
Sure, Dinkci and Kyereh are injured, but the squad is of a high enough quality to put a third division team like Bielefeld to the sword in such an important game.
Nevertheless, I wouldn’t want to overrate this defeat, as Sportclub have only lost to absolute top teams like Dortmund (0:4) and Leipzig (1:3) in the Bundesliga since October.
My prediction? Just as they bounced back from their defeat to Dortmund with a 3-1 win over Gladbach, SCF coach Schuster’s squad should be able to put this setback behind them.
Hoffenheim, on the other hand, have far greater problems to lament. It is now clear that even Andrej Kramaric, who was once so prolific, can no longer single-handedly pull the chestnuts out of the fire. The list of absentees has become too long for that.
The Croatian has not scored in 13 competitive matches for his home country and his employer, and without Kramaric in top form, the TSG offense seems to be completely lost.
There’s no question: Given the shortage of personnel and the short time at the club, it’s certainly not easy for Christian Ilzer to lead “Hoffe” through this difficult phase.
Rating Analysis
A win odds of 2.65 for the Breisgauer is really a decent offer to consider. After all, Freiburg have often proven in the past that they rarely disappoint, especially against teams from the bottom of the table.
I also think the under 3.5 goal odds of 1.45 are interesting. The bookmakers seem to be predicting a high-scoring spectacle here, but there is much to suggest a more tactical duel with fewer goals. An appealing tip for all those who want to minimize the risk.
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Hoffenheim vs Freiburg odds: Grifo likes to score against TSG!
Vincenzo Grifo has long been considered a hot candidate for a goal bet on many betting apps on Sunday, and not just by die-hard fans of Breisgau.
In fact, the Italian has scored a total of 11 goals (5 goals, 6 assists) in just 14 games against his former club.
So far in his career, he has only been more successful in scoring goals against Augsburg (7) and Fürth (7).
It is therefore quite possible that the Pforzheim native will be particularly highly motivated against his former club Hoffenheim!
Hoffe just can’t play to nil!
With only 16 goals conceded this season, Freiburg’s defense around Matthias Ginter and Philipp Lienhart remains one of the most reliable in the league. Even though they have conceded goals recently, I believe that a clean sheet for the Breisgauers is absolutely realistic.
Nevertheless, I will take a flexible approach in my Hoffenheim Freiburg betting tip and select a combination bet of the type “Win SCF & Under 3.5 goals”.
That way, I’ll be able to cash in even if the game goes 2:1 to the Black Forest side, as was the case in their last clash.
On the other side is a Hoffenheim side that has been struggling to stabilize its defence for months. Since a 2-0 win against Schalke 04 in April 2023, the Kraichgauers have not conceded a game in 26 consecutive Bundesliga home matches.
This means they share a Bundesliga negative record with Rot-Weiss Essen (1970-1974) and VfB Stuttgart (2021-2023).
However, TSG are also currently stumbling badly in attack: Hoffenheim have failed to score in four of their last five league games – more often than in the entire previous season, when they only failed to score in three of 34 games.
With just 17 goals after twelve matchdays, Hoffenheim are in a worse position than ever before. The last time they had a similarly meagre haul was in 2015/16 (12 goals).
Should the Kraichgau team come away empty-handed again this time, it would not be surprising given their current form.
My Hoffenheim Freiburg bet:
My Hoffenheim Freiburg prediction leads me to a bet on a win for SC Freiburg and less than 3.5 goals.
Hoffenheim’s offense seems to have stalled at the moment, even Kramaric can’t convince as usual.
Freiburg, on the other hand, will come out with a lot of anger in their belly after the embarrassing defeat against Bielefeld and will decide the game in their favor.
My tip: Win Freiburg & Under 3.5 goals
