Hoffenheim – Freiburg Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 22 on Saturday, 14/02/2026 at 15:30 CET
I’ll say it right at the beginning: I don’t think TSG Hoffenheim will be put off by the 5-1 thrashing against Bayern. Accordingly, I assume that Hoffenheim will dominate from the start on Bundesliga matchday 22 against SC Freiburg.
In any case, Freiburg have to struggle with one or two fluctuations in form despite reaching the semi-finals of the DFB Cup. SCF has won only three of the last eight competitive games after regular time.
In my Hoffenheim Freiburg tip, I also target “Hoffenheim to win” at odds around 1.75 at Merkur Bets because Freiburg is truly not an away power. In fact, the Breisgau team is in 13th place in the away table with only 9 points and a goal difference of 13:22.
Hoffenheim, on the other hand, usually perform confidently in front of their home crowd. Only Bayern, BVB and Stuttgart have picked up more points at home than TSG. After FCB (45 goals), TSG (24) also have the second-best home attack of the current season.
Incidentally, the Kraichgau team have won five of their last six games. Only the defeat against Bayern clouds the picture. However, TSG should find their way back to success against Freiburg who are weak on the road.
Hoffenheim – Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips
Freiburg have a goal difference of 32:33 after 21 Bundesliga games. Accordingly, as the first betting alternative for the duel with Hoffenheim, I set my sights on the classic “Both teams to score” at odds of about 1.65.
“Over 2.5 Goals” also takes the same line. The odds for betting providers with a German license are in the range of around 1.65. And is a 2-1 win for TSG an unrealistic final result given the starting position?
And while we’re at it, I’ll throw that result bet into the ring. The “2:1 for Hoffenheim” is classified by the bookmakers at odds of about 8.75.
What you need to know about Hoffenheim vs. Freiburg betting
- TSG Hoffenheim are unbeaten in seven competitive games at their own stadium under coach Christian Ilzer and have won all of them. In this period, Hoffenheim scored 22 goals, conceded only five goals and kept two clean sheets.
- Freiburg is having a hard time away from home this season. On average, the Breisgau team scored only 0.82 points per game away from home and, with 22 goals conceded, conceded almost twice as many goals as they scored themselves (13).
- Three or more goals have been scored in eight of Hoffenheim’s ten home games this season – only FC Bayern can boast a higher figure in the league with eleven of eleven games in front of their own fans. Freiburg were involved in six of eleven games away from home (55 percent) with more than 2.5 goals.
- In the market for the goalscorer at any time, Andrej Kramaric and Fisnik Asllani are considered favorites at identical odds. Kramaric (9 goals) and Asllani (6) lead Hoffenheim’s internal goalscorer list for the 2025/26 Bundesliga season together with Grischa Prömel (6) and Tim Lemperle (6).
Hoffenheim – Freiburg: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model will also take a close look on Bundesliga matchday 22 and provide you with a precise Hoffenheim Freiburg AI prediction.
With the first tip, the digital brain goes for an Asian handicap. “Hoffenheim win -1.0” has a strong odds around 2.20. Since I also have a 3-1 win for TSG in my personal draw, I’m not averse to it.
“Hoffenheim leads at half-time” is the second selection of the AI. Here, too, I agree absolutely. After the defeat against Bayern, TSG will go into the game with a good deal of anger in their stomachs and will be looking to make amends in front of their home crowd from the start.
The best odds for Hoffenheim vs. Freiburg
In the betting odds for the duel between Hoffenheim and Freiburg, the hosts are considered clear favourites. The 1X2 odds for Hoffenheim imply a probability of victory of 59 percent, while Freiburg only has a mathematical away chance of 23 percent.
The Asian handicap market is set at -0.75 at Hoffenheim. For Hoffenheim punters, this means that a win with at least a two-goal difference brings the full profit, a home win with only a one-goal lead at least half the win. In the event of a draw or a Freiburg victory, the Freiburg option +0.75 applies accordingly.
The Asian goal line is over/under 2.75 goals. For Over 2.75, at least three goals are required for a partial win and four or more for the full win. If only one or two goals are scored, the under 2.75 bet is successful.
Both Hoffenheim (3.42 goals per 90 minutes) and Freiburg (3.10) are above this line with their average – a value that should appeal to many bettors at the weekend.
Three or more goals have been scored in eight of Hoffenheim’s ten home games this season. Only FC Bayern has an even higher rate in front of a home crowd with eleven out of eleven games. Freiburg was involved in six of eleven games (55 percent) away from home with more than 2.5 goals.
Kramaric (9 goals) and Asllani (6) are Hoffenheim’s top scorers of the 2025/26 season, along with Grischa Prömel (6) and Tim Lemperle (6).
Hoffenheim vs Freiburg Match Analysis:
Hoffenheim go into this game with a twelve-point lead over Freiburg after a strong form has led TSG to third place in the table.
In terms of personnel and structure, little has changed at Hoffenheim compared to last season, which makes the change from relegation candidate to Champions League contender all the more remarkable.
However, with VfB Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen, several competitors are lurking for one of the top four places, which is why Christian Ilzer’s team will have to deliver in the home game against Freiburg.
Hoffenheim are extremely proactive both with and without the ball. Ilzer presses high and demands a quick recapture of the ball. This style of play means that TSG have the second-highest defensive line in the Bundesliga.
Freiburg could react to this with long balls behind the pressing to bring creative players like Vincenzo Grifo into promising zones.
Hoffenheim’s attacking strength in particular is likely to pose problems for Freiburg: League-wide, only Bayern have scored more goals at home than Christian Ilzer’s team – another reason why the hosts go into this encounter with a broad chest.
Hoffenheim form check
Despite the 5-1 defeat in Munich last weekend, TSG Hoffenheim are still one of the most in-form teams in the Bundesliga. Six wins from the last eight games underline the upward trend.
In the decisive phase of the season, Hoffenheim can concentrate fully on everyday league life, as there are no commitments in the DFB Cup or the European Cup.
The defeat against FC Bayern was Hoffenheim’s first Bundesliga defeat since the beginning of December (0-2 against Dortmund). The record champions impressively justified the clear result and achieved an expected goals value of 5.28.
Most recently, Hoffenheim have won seven Bundesliga home games in a row – currently the longest run in the league – and also have the second-best home attack with 24 goals. TSG have so far dropped just two points from leading positions, a top figure in the league.
After last season’s relegation battle, this season marks significant progress. With 13 games to go, it is now important to keep the momentum going in order to secure qualification for the Champions League for the first time since 2019.
Freiburg Form Check
SC Freiburg advanced to the semi-finals of the DFB Cup on Tuesday after a 5-4 win on penalties against second-division Hertha BSC. Now the club is aiming for its first final since the 2021/22 season.
The cup match also underlined Freiburg’s weakness on the road this season: the club is winless in five away games across all competitions.
In the Bundesliga, Freiburg have won only one of their last nine away games (three draws, five defeats) – most recently in the spectacular 4-3 win at Wolfsburg just before Christmas.
With just nine points from eleven away games, Freiburg is one of the six weakest teams in the league away from home this season.
Last weekend, however, Freiburg celebrated a 1-0 home win against Werder Bremen, keeping their European ambitions alive and at the same time extending their strong run at the Europa-Park Stadium to nine games without defeat. The last time there was a home defeat was on the first matchday of the season.
In addition, Freiburg still has the opportunity to qualify for the international competition by finishing seventh. If the DFB Cup winners of the 2025/26 season finish in the top six in the Bundesliga, the seventh-placed team would take part in the play-off round of the Conference League.
Freiburg are currently six points behind sixth-placed Bayer Leverkusen, but still have a game in hand.
