HSV – St. Pauli Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 2 on Friday, 08/29/2025 at 8:30 p.m.
Seven teams came out on top at the start of the season – and in six cases, it was the team with the higher mileage.
FC St. Pauli also impressed in this regard: with almost 122 kilometers, the team covered around five kilometers more than Borussia Dortmund, who had to finish the game with one man down after a late red card.
However, in my HSV St. Pauli prediction for Friday’s match, there are other factors that make me stick with the Kiezkickers. In any case, I have already selected two or three betting offers in the Bet-at-home app that I don’t want to miss out on in this northern derby!
My HSV St. Pauli tip: Double chance X2
These are the arguments for my tip:
- St. Pauli didn’t give up last week, even when they were 1-3 down!
- The last Bundesliga duel between these two teams went to the Kiezkickers!
- Hamburg owes its point on matchday 1 solely to its own keeper, who put in an outstanding performance against Gladbach!
Watch out: for the first time since the 2010/11 season, there will be another Hamburg city derby in the Bundesliga. While St. Pauli only won the very first match in 1977 and the last one in 2011, HSV has celebrated eight wins in 16 games, with six draws.
However, given the Kiezkickers’ euphoric start to the season, I can well imagine that they will be able to take something away from the Volksparkstadion this time. Whether it’s one point or even three, however, depends on the resistance of their city rivals!
HSV – St. Pauli Prediction & Betting
“St. Pauli over 2.5 goals” is a tip aimed at the daring sports betting fans among you, but it’s not completely out of the blue.
The odds of around 5.40 are fantastic, and if the Kiezkickers encounter resistance – as they did against BVB – they can make up any deficit, no matter how big. Another 3:3 draw in such an explosive northern derby cannot be ruled out.
Another suggestion I would like to make at this point is: 1st goal, St. Pauli. The odds are generous at 2.15 and the probability of this happening is over 50%.
It took 50 minutes for the Boys in Brown to strike for the first time against Dortmund, but in this fiery city derby, they will be going full throttle from the very first second.
What you need to consider when betting on HSV vs. St. Pauli
- Both teams have scored in 6 of HSV’s last 8 competitive games.
- Hamburg have lost only 2 of their last 5 games in which they conceded the first goal (2 wins, 1 draw).
- In St. Pauli’s last 15 games, the away team has always been level or ahead at halftime.
- There have been a total of 4 red cards in St. Pauli’s last 6 competitive games.
- Daniel Heuer Fernandes kept a clean sheet in Mönchengladbach with 4 saves and was voted Man of the Match with almost half of all votes.
- Of all current Bundesliga teams, HSV has won 50% of its Bundesliga matches against St. Pauli – no other club has such a high win rate.
HSV – St. Pauli: AI tip & odds analysis
As part of its HSV St. Pauli AI forecast, our in-house AI model has come up with three suggestions that give me, as an experienced betting expert, mixed feelings!
However, over 3.5 goals at odds of around 3.05 is excellent if you look at this offer solely from the perspective of its risk-reward ratio.
After all, half of the last six Hamburg derbies have exceeded this mark!
Predicted chance of winning:
| HSV win |
Draw |
St. Pauli win |
| 42.6% |
28.6% |
28.8% |
A goal between the 60th and 75th minute at odds of around 2.55 is a very specific suggestion. But why not? Last week, the Kiezkickers scored two goals in this time frame during their home game!
The final AI suggestion is: Both teams to score. Personally, I consider this offer to be a sure thing, as there is a very high probability that the first goal of the game – especially if it comes early – could lead to a flood of goals.
The best odds for HSV vs. St. Pauli
When HSV meets FC St. Pauli, the city comes to a standstill – the derby is more than just a soccer game, it’s pure emotion.
For those who want to try their luck at betting, Bet-at-home provides the odds: 2.35 for a home win, 3.50 for a draw, and 3.10 for the Kiezkickers.
No clearly defined roles, no boring odds – every option comes with a dose of risk and excitement.
Anyone who has ever seen a Hamburg derby knows that anything can happen, anything is possible. That’s exactly why these odds are so exciting – perfect for anyone looking for the ultimate thrill on their betting slip.
HSV vs St. Pauli match analysis:
The northern derby between HSV and St. Pauli not only has a long tradition, but also has a special appeal statistically.
Take note: HSV has a higher win rate against its city rivals than against any other current Bundesliga team – HSV has won exactly 50 percent of the duels. This is a statistic that should give the Hanseatic team additional momentum.
But the Kiezkickers have recently proven that they are not so easy to shake off. The 3-3 draw against Dortmund sent a strong signal: for the first time since August 23, 1996, St. Pauli managed to score points in the Bundesliga after trailing by two goals.
This shows the resilience and mentality of a team that never gives up, even in seemingly hopeless situations.
In short, this game could quickly pick up speed and turn into a real goal fest. HSV brings its offensive power and good record in the derby to the table, while St. Pauli is always good for a surprise thanks to its fighting spirit and comeback qualities.
A game that promises to be anything but quiet – and in which every attack could be extremely dangerous.
HSV form check
Yes, the goalless draw against Gladbach is not necessarily the worst possible start to the Bundesliga season for Hamburg.
But all the results that led up to the 0-0 draw against Gladbach do not give me much confidence that they will have an easy game against their city rivals.
The last three test matches were all lost – including a 4-0 defeat to Lyon at the Volksparkstadion – and in the DFB Cup, they had to fight until the end against a semi-professional club.
Pirmasens could only be defeated in extra time, so I’m really not a fan of betting on a home win this Friday.
St. Pauli form check
St. Pauli had to sweat more than their city rivals in the DFB Cup. In the local derby against Norderstedt, the Bundesliga club only prevailed in a penalty shootout.
Nevertheless, I liked the Kiezkickers’ preseason preparations and Bundesliga start better.
They won four of their last five test matches, and in the aforementioned 3-3 draw against BVB, the promoted team showed enormous self-confidence.
