HSV – Stuttgart Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 12 on Sunday, 30.11.2025 at 15:30 CET
While HSV usually plays quite passably for a promoted team, the bottom line is that it doesn’t get around enough. After only one point from the last five games, dreariness is increasingly threatening to replace the euphoria after the return to the Bundesliga.
Occasional strokes of genius, however, occasionally heat up the mood freshly. In the best case, the North Germans can live on the last-minute equaliser against Dortmund in the last home game for quite a while.
But they probably have to, if it goes by my HSV Stuttgart prediction for the 12th matchday of the Bundesliga. At the end of an English week that has been quite brilliant so far, I see the Swabians in the lead again on Saturday afternoon.
The fact that there is probably not much going on for the Hamburg home side here is mainly due to the significant offensive differences in quality.
While the diamond bearers have scored a maximum of one goal in the last six competitive games (four in total), the guests have already collected seven goals this week alone.
In my view, the more recent direct record can only lead to the conclusion that this time the Hamburg sports club is even in the traditional Volkspark on a largely lost position.
HSV – Stuttgart Prediction & Betting
If the two offensive departments are expected to make the difference in this match, I believe that the Rothosen – to start with good news for HSV – can at least score a goal in the first Sunday game.
However, the VfB defence is mainly responsible for the “BTS” recommended at a rate of just under 1.45. With eight goals conceded in the last three BL games, they also involuntarily contributed to the lively shooting again and again.
In this respect, it makes sense to go straight back to the over 3.5 goals with the expected successful finishes. If this football bet goes through as expected, a rather impressive odd of around 2.30 is the reward!
In view of the explosion of form in the last few days, I can’t get past Deniz Undav. After the VfB striker scored five goals in the last two league games, an Undav goal against HSV at odds of 2.15 almost sounds like a safety tip!
What you need to know about HSV vs. Stuttgart betting
- Hamburger SV have lost all of their last four competitive games against VfB Stuttgart, and HSV have never had a longer losing streak against VfB since the Bundesliga was founded.
- VfB Stuttgart have 22 points after 11 Bundesliga games – in their last 20 Bundesliga seasons (including 2025/26), the Swabians have only had more points in the 2023/24 runners-up season (24).
- VfB Stuttgart have won all four Sunday games and all four BL games so far following a Europa League match this Bundesliga season, and all four wins have come with a one-goal difference (2-1 in Cologne, 1-0 against Heidenheim, 2-1 against Mainz, 3-2 against Augsburg).
- Hamburger SV have gone six times without a goal this Bundesliga season, which is the highest league figure with St. Pauli.
- Hamburger SV is the team with the weakest chance conversion (6%) and big chance conversion (17%) this Bundesliga season, and HSV also undercuts its expected goals value by five goals (9 goals at 14.0 xG) – more clearly than any other Bundesliga team.
HSV – Stuttgart: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Artificial intelligence also obviously assumes that the Swabian guest will still have a good sip left over from the recently abundantly enjoyed target water on Sunday.
I can also only recommend the HSV Stuttgart KI tip away win and over 2.5 goals according to my match analysis. If this bet goes through, it will be returned to both the bookmakers and around 2.90 times the stake.
The tip: Both teams score also concede to the Rothosen the one goal I already assumed in front.
In the further forecasts, our in-house artificial model is obviously quite sure that Stuttgart has coped extremely well with the English Week, which has been so successful so far.
At odds of 2.62, the recommendation here is that the guest with the chest ring scores at least one goal in both halves.
Deniz Undav, who I have already taken a look at, is also once again mentioned by name in the AI forecast, which is really no wonder in view of his hit rate in recent weeks.
If Undav strikes at least twice again in Hamburg after the short EL rest period, successful bettors can calculate with odds of around 8.40. Not without risk, but from my point of view still almost obligatory at this rate …
The best odds for HSV vs. Stuttgart
If the official HSV Stuttgart odds of the bookmakers are anything to go by, you can get the impression that both my recommendations and the tips of the AI may tip a little too much in the direction of the guests.
As expected, the Swabians are also favoured by the bookmakers, but the differences in odds between the hosts and the guests are not so huge.
In view of the facts that have been collected, however, the favourites’ quota of around 2.20 for an away win can only confirm my decision once again that it is a pretty good idea to bet on VfB here.
Meanwhile, the Rothosen can see from the HSV VfB odds that with values of just over 3.00, there is also a realistic chance of a positive surprise from Hamburg’s point of view.
If the match ends in a draw – which would of course not correspond to a classic sensation after the recent 1-1 draw against HSV’s Dortmund – this would be good for the 1×2 bet for peaks of up to around 3.80.
HSV vs Stuttgart Match Analysis:
HSV has been largely ineffective in attack recently, but this is not due to a lack of offensive power. The team averages 13.73 shots on goal per league game, the same number as Leverkusen, but has problems getting into the right spaces.
This is likely to remain the case against VfB Stuttgart, who have the fifth lowest xGA (expected goals conceded) in the Bundesliga.
The two teams are also at opposite ends of the table in terms of field slope, a metric that measures territorial dominance.
Only three teams have a better pitch than VfB Stuttgart, so it is to be expected that the guests will have more possession in the front areas in this game.
VfB Stuttgart is one of the most aggressive pressing teams in the Bundesliga and allows the second fewest passes per defensive action. HSV is far more passive without possession, which should lead to an exciting duel.
Hamburg put in an excellent performance in their last home game and picked up a late point with a 1-1 draw against Dortmund. And this despite the fact that the diamond bearers fired eight fewer shots than BVB.
The game against Stuttgart will be similarly difficult, and the hosts will probably need a bit of luck again to get a positive result.
HSV Form Check
HSV are winless in five Bundesliga games and picked up just one point in the 1-1 draw against Dortmund. In this period, the promoted team scored only three goals. Only St. Pauli has a worse record with zero points and a single goal in the last five games.
Hamburg’s 12.34 xPTS (expected points) show that the team has remained below its potential and should have scored 3.34 points more.
Since there are only two points between Hamburg and St. Pauli in the relegation zone, a win on Sunday would be very important. Hamburg will fight against relegation until the end, and picking up points wherever possible is crucial for Merlin Polzin’s goal of staying in the league.
The games at the Volksparkstadion have provided some stability, as Hamburg has not yet been able to win away from home.
Hamburger SV’s underlying metrics improve significantly at home, where the club scores more goals, concedes fewer goals and has a crucial conversion rate of 9%, compared to just 3% away from home.
Hamburger SV’s offensive weakness contrasts with the Bundesliga’s goal-scoring trend. Hamburger SV scores an average of just 2.36 goals per game, which is the lowest in a league that averages 3.26 goals per game.
Stuttgart Form Check
VfB Stuttgart have collected 22 points in 11 Bundesliga games this season, their best start to the season since the 2023/24 runners-up season, when the club picked up 24 points.
This is also one point more than in the entire second half of last season, in which a total of 21 points were collected.
VfB Stuttgart are unbeaten at home in the Bundesliga this season and have taken all 15 possible points from their five home games. All three defeats and 12 of the 15 goals conceded were in away games.
In the most recent 3-3 draw against Borussia Dortmund, VfB Stuttgart overcame a 2-0 and 3-2 deficit to secure a point. VfB Stuttgart have come from behind 10 points this Bundesliga season and are now joint leaders of the league with Hoffenheim.
Apart from Bayern and Borussia Dortmund, VfB Stuttgart is the only team to have scored a goal in every Bundesliga game this season. Hamburg, on the other hand, has not scored a goal in six games so far.
Stuttgart’s fundamental metrics are solid but show an unpredictable trend. Sebastian Hoeneß’s team scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per game.
The chest ring bearers shoot on goal an average of 5.7 times per game, but have not taken advantage of 13 of the 24 big chances created. Solid performances, but they are clouded by the lack of chance conversion.
