Copa Libertadores 2024, Wednesday, 24.04.2024
While the Champions League storms towards its climax, the Copa Libertadores – the South American equivalent – is still in the starting blocks. The two unbeaten teams – Independiente del Valle and Palmeiras – will meet on the third matchday of Group F.
Palmeiras became Brazilian champions for the twelfth time last year and reached the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores. In my Independiente del Valle Palmeiras betting tip, I favor the visitors and play with NEObet “Victory Palmeiras (DNB)” at odds of 2.20.
Four points from the first two matchdays – that’s the record of Independiente del Valle and Palmeiras. On the third matchday of the Copa Libertadores, the two are battling it out for top spot in Group F.
To my surprise, the hosts from Ecuador are the slight odds-on favorites for many sports betting providers and have top odds of 2.35.
For initial orientation, I took a look at the squad market value of both teams on Transfermarkt.de and was reassured that my surprise at the distribution of roles was not entirely unfounded.
Palmeiras (220 million) will travel to Ecuador to face Serie A runners-up (33.80 million), who are significantly weaker in the market value comparison of the two squads
The quality of the Brazilian champions’ squad is overwhelming, especially in attack. In Raphael Veiga, coach Abel Ferreira has the best assist provider of the first two matchdays at his disposal (three assists).
Last season, Palmeiras advanced to the semi-finals, scored the most goals per matchday (1.8) and also led the way in the “expected goals” category (23.7 xG).
Defense is also a top priority in Abel Ferreira’s team, otherwise the second-best defense in the last edition (0.6 goals conceded per game) would hardly have been possible.
In attack, Verdão built on last season’s performance. Compared to the hosts (34), last year’s semi-finalists (54) made significantly more contact with the ball in the opposition penalty area
In this context, a look at the possession values of both opponents is extremely exciting. The team from Ecuador has collected the second most possession in the entire competition (68.3%) and yet has had significantly fewer contacts with the ball in the opponent’s penalty area.
It seems that Palmeiras (58.8% possession) are much more determined with the ball in the direction of their opponents’ penalty area than the home side.
In terms of big chances created, the Brazilian champions (4) and Independiente del Valle (4) are on exactly the same level
Independiente del Valle caused a stir in the group stage last year, remaining unbeaten at home and advancing to the knockout phase as group winners.
There, however, the 2021 Ecuadorian champions came up against stronger competition and were knocked out of the tournament in the round of 16 against the Colombian team from Pereira.
Palmeiras, on the other hand, won the Copa Libertadores in 2020 and 2021, reached the semi-finals last year and are focused on winning the next title this year.
From this perspective, the odds of 1.60 in the Betway app for a “double chance X2” still seem relatively high
The record of the two previous meetings also clearly favors Palmeiras with 100% win odds (2 games, 2 wins).
If the odds of 3.10 for a win for the Brazilian champions appeal to you, you are free to use this Interwetten betting bonus and use the surprising underdog role of the visitors to your advantage.
In my opinion, it definitely makes sense to try. Palmeiras have so far scored the fourth most goals per game (7.0) and are therefore well ahead of Independiente del Valle (4.5).
Why I’m not betting directly on a “Palmeiras win”, but instead choosing the weakened DNB variant as an Independiente del Valle Palmeiras tip, is explained by the expected values of the two teams.
The team from Ecuador has scored more expected goals (3.8 xG) than Palmeiras (2.7 xG) and has conceded less than one expected goal in two group games (0.6 xGA).
However, the first acid test in Group F still awaits the home side. Palmeiras are of a completely different caliber to San Lorenzo and Liverpool FC, who are both in the bottom half of the table in their respective national leagues.
The same applies to the Greenshirts, of course, but they have already achieved great results in the Copa Libertadores in the past
In principle, however, I maintain my opinion that Palmeiras’ underdog role is a good reason for a “value bet”.
Abel Ferreira has been in charge of the visitors for almost four years and has won the South American equivalent of the premier league twice with his team.
I therefore place my Independiente del Valle Palmeiras bet on “Victory Palmeiras (DNB)”
