Copa Libertadores 2024, Thursday, 11.04.2024
El Matagigantes and El Ciclón face each other in Group F of the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday night.
After both teams only played out a draw in the Copa opener, the second matchday will now be about determining where they stand in the table.
That is also a good keyword. Because my Independiente San Lorenzo tip assumes better chances of victory for the hosts due to their home advantage
Everything is still possible in Group F. On the first matchday, there were only draws in a largely evenly matched constellation.
Both the men from Ecuador and Argentina lost two points late on to miss out on victory
El Matagigantes could only draw 1-1 with Uruguayan representatives Liverpool FC. Certainly not enough, considering that they are the underdogs.
It was definitely okay for the Azulgrana to pick up a point at home against Palmeiras, one of the top favorites for the title
From the Negriazules’ point of view, it’s only an advantage that they’re playing in front of a home crowd again. They feel at home there.
In recent years, many teams who came to Quito as favorites have struggled in the Ecuadorian mountain air
Since 2021, IDV have only lost two of their 16 home games on the international stage (10S, 4U). Will they avoid defeat again this time?
The double chance odds for this are relatively low with the bookmakers at Intertops in the Independiente San Lorenzo betting tip. However, the odds of around 1.20 can still be improved
Matches in the Copa Libertadores have always been hard-fought affairs. Although there is some brilliance in terms of play, it is mainly about defensive work.
Of the 16 games on the first matchday, only four resulted in more than 2.5 goals. In only ten were goals scored on both sides
In my Independiente San Lorenzo betting tip, I’m therefore once again leaning towards a low-scoring game. This means that the double chance bet just mentioned can be combined.
If less than 3.5 goals are scored and the home side do not lose, there are still odds of around 1.60 to be had at Bet at Home sports betting.
This would also be supported by the fact that the visitors have often struggled in Ecuador. They won just two of their eight away games (1U, 5N).
However, I do not consider El Ciclón to be completely without a chance. Defensively, they certainly have the tools to be at least an equal opponent here.
They have kept a clean sheet in six of their last ten matches in all competitions. On the other hand, the Negriazules have scored exactly three goals in three of their last four home games.
I therefore do not expect the Argentinians to keep a clean sheet. This is also the view of top betting providers such as Happybet.
Before kick-off, the odds for less than 0.5 goals for the Ecuadorians in the Independiente San Lorenzo betting tip are well over 4.00.
The home advantage is obvious for IDV. The soccer they have been playing for years is even exciting and can cause problems for the Argentinians, who have been in poor form recently.
Nevertheless, I don’t expect El Matagigantes to win here by many goals to one. There could be few goals.
My Independiente San Lorenzo tip is therefore: Home win with less than 4.5 goals scored
