EM test match, Sunday, 09.06.2024
You’re only as good as your opponent allows you to be. And in this case, the Balkan footballers concede a hell of a lot. Which is the only reason why I’m placing this Italy Bosnia betting tip in the first place.
There is reason to worry that the “Azzurri” will crash land at the 2024 European Championship.
The bad news surrounding Scalvini’s injury has led to personnel changes that have caused some sand in the sky-blue gears
I was really anything but enthusiastic about my compatriots’ last performance against Turkey.
The bad news surrounding the cruciate ligament injury to Giorgio Scalvini, a true talent of the century, has permanently weakened the Italian defense.
I don’t think Gianluca Mancini will be able to forge a similarly stable Catenaccio as the youngster from Atalanta Bergamo. In any case, the zero number against the Ottomans left me with a queasy feeling.
I’m also increasingly getting the impression that the “Azzurri” lack real difference-makers who can single-handedly decide a game and that they no longer defend as rigorously as they did four years ago.
For some of my betting friends,
Italy are among the extended circle of possible title favorites, who are not convincing at the moment, but at the same time cannot be accused of too many setbacks.
Since mid-June 2023, the 3-1 defeat to England in the qualifying phase for the European Championship remains Italy’s only “sconfitta” in this long period.
At the same time, however, you must not forget that successes of note were also in short supply. And now that Scalvini is also injured, conceding goals could become more regular again.
During the last four international matches, Italy have not always been convincing, but have at least conceded three times
By this point, you should have realized that I’m worried about my national team.
However, the only reason why I still classify the very one-sided Italy Bosnia odds of the European Championship betting providers on Saturday as “fair” in their current form has to do with the fact that the opponent is much worse off.
An ITA win odds of around 1.31 would normally be too optimistic for me, but this opponent has lost 8 of its last 10 international matches and only kept the upper hand in the two encounters against soccer powerhouse Liechtenstein (2:0, 2:1)
Bosnia are reverting to a minor soccer power – even though the line-up is not a bad one at first glance.
Although Dzeko and Pjanic are currently injured and elderly, the players called up for the two international matches against England and Italy should actually be of sufficient quality to prevent as many avoidable defeats as the Balkan footballers have suffered since 2023.
In any case, the signs here are pointing to “upheaval”. Of the 18 players in the current squad, 10 have fewer than four international caps under their belts, and three are even about to make their debuts!
This lack of experience and familiarity is a problem if they are to be competitive again in 2024.
In any case, the hopeless Bosnians lost 3-0 to England a few days ago, creating scoring chances that corresponded to a shocking xG value of just 0.03.
One of the only two Bosnian shots on target was also the result of a glaring error in England’s build-up play, meaning that even without Scalvini, Italy should not have much of a chance on Saturday
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Conclusion: Italy aren’t currently blowing me away, but they should still be able to prevail against this opponent.
The Bosnians are in a complete transition phase and were unable to complete a single coordinated attack against England a few days ago.
However, since I’m not convinced by the “Azzurri’s” offense either, I would like to hedge against a possible zero number with my Italy Bosnia betting tip.
This is my prediction: Double chance 1X & Under 2.5 goals
