Supercoppa semi-final, Friday, 03.01.2025 at 20:00
I repeated it over and over again like a mantra until it became a reality: Paulo Fonseca would still have to pack his bags in 2024. And honestly? The club management simply could no longer ignore the many poor results in so-called “big matches”.
Now a trip to Saudi Arabia, which many consider unnecessary, is on the agenda and could throw both clubs off their rhythm.
My Juventus AC Milan prediction is for an uneventful game in which the main aim will be to avoid taking any unnecessary risks given the number of injury absentees on both sides.
Juventus, the “Old Lady” of Italian soccer, travel to Riyadh as record winners of this competition. With nine Super Cup titles, the “Bianconeri” are the most successful team in the history of the tournament.
After a two-year absence from this prestigious competition, they are now back and seem well prepared. After all, the Turin side are the only Serie A team still unbeaten this season.
This run of 14 games without defeat is undoubtedly impressive, even if the many draws show that not everything is going perfectly for Motta’s team.
In particular, the 2-2 draw against Fiorentina before the winter break, in which Juventus twice let a lead slip, must have given coach Thiago Motta sleepless nights.
It is also a good omen for Juventus that they last met Milan in the Super Cup in 2019, when they narrowly triumphed 1-0 over their rivals. (Incidentally, that would also be in line with my Juventus AC Milan tip).
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On the other hand, Milan are traveling to Saudi Arabia with mixed feelings. The “Rossoneri”, who last won the title in 2016, have suffered two defeats in this competition since then – most recently against city rivals Inter in 2022.
Milan are also currently going through a turbulent phase: Paulo Fonseca, who was sacked just a few days ago, has been replaced by Sérgio Conceição, who faces a truly Herculean task on his debut.
Conceição could face his son, who is currently under contract with Juventus, in Saudi Arabia.
Milan’s recent form has been solid, but not outstanding. However, that is exactly what Milan’s demanding club management expects from their team.
Just one defeat from their last twelve games (7 wins, 4 draws) may sound acceptable at first glance, but Milan have won just two of their last five games – and have been particularly disappointing in Serie A clashes.
The recent 1:1 draw against Roma, for example, showed once again that AC have difficulties scoring decisive goals when it comes to the so-called “big points”.
AC have failed to score more than 1.5 goals in their last four matches, which is of course completely unacceptable given the attacking talent of this squad.
The decisive factor will be whether Milan can break down the Turin side’s solid defense. Juventus have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league so far and are particularly strong in tight games.
Milan, on the other hand, are struggling with attacking weaknesses and have not scored in their last three matches against Juventus. Sérgio Conceição will therefore not only have to apply his playing philosophy, but also find creative solutions against an experienced defense.
Juventus have the edge with their Serie A form and recent experience in such finals, but Milan have nothing to lose and could spring a surprise
Personally, I expect this to be a tired affair in Saudi Arabia, which both teams would probably prefer to avoid altogether.
Just like the last two direct duels, the next edition of this Italian soccer classic in sunny Riyadh could also end in a boring 0-0 draw.
In any case, I don’t see either side starting from pole position here, even if the betting providers with PayPal have hung the role of favorite around the neck of the “Old Lady” according to the current Juventus AC Milan odds.
“Under 2.5 goals” at odds of currently around 1.70 in any decent betting app seems to me to be one of the most sensible options.
If you want to take a little more risk, you could alternatively opt for the “Draw” option at significantly higher odds of around 3.15.
Incidentally, both betting suggestions can also be combined wonderfully with each other, as I consider a 0:0 or 1:1 to be by far the two most likely final results anyway.
Conclusion: I don’t expect either team to have saved their best soccer for the little Saudi Arabia trip of all things.
In fact, I think we’ll see a very boring game on Friday, in which the result will probably be secondary for both sides.
In five of the last six direct duels, a maximum of one goal has been scored and half of these encounters even ended 0-0. That says it all.
My Juventus AC Milan betting tip is therefore very clear: Under 2.5 goals
