Bundesliga matchday 33, Saturday, 10.05.2025 at 15:30
For a long time in this Bundesliga season, it looked as if Holstein Kiel would have to accept direct relegation without much ado. In the last few weeks, however, the Storks have started to catch up.
Coach Marcel Rapp’s men are unbeaten in three games (2S, 1U). Can KSV continue this run and keep their hopes of finishing 16th? This question is the focus of my Kiel Freiburg tip.
But the team from the fjord must also be careful. Relegation could also be decided immediately after the final whistle on Saturday afternoon.
For if Kiel lose against Freiburg and Heidenheim win at Union Berlin at the same time, the Storks will be relegated. The task against the Breisgauers, who go into the matchday in a Champions League place, also promises to be a high hurdle.
The odds in the Kiel Freiburg prediction also see the visitors from the south of Germany in front. However, my assessment of the starting position ahead of this match is somewhat different.
The oddsmakers’ forecast?
At first glance, the Kiel vs Freiburg odds are completely logical. The Storks are fighting to stay in the league and the Breisgauers are hoping for a ticket to the Champions League.
The bookies, which also include some Apple Pay bookmakers and PayPal betting providers, are offering average odds of 2.12 on a win for the visitors, but the North Germans are not without a chance either.
Because for a three-pointer for the home side, you can get Kiel vs Freiburg betting odds of between 3.10 and 3.25.
AI prediction Kiel vs Freiburg: ChatGPT
ChatGPT is generally on the side of the visitors in this match. When betting with a low risk, the AI is still quite neutral and expects more than two goals.
I can best live with this recommendation and find odds of 1.52 for it at AdmiralBet. New customers of the provider should secure the AdmiralBet betting bonus beforehand!
With a medium risk, we then get the tip “1st goal Freiburg & victory Freiburg” suggested. You would get odds of 2.45 for this at Betano. In the course of my Kiel Freiburg tip, however, you’ll find out why I disagree here.
And I think the high-risk bet is really wild. Sure, Merkur Bets has high odds of 6.50 for the bet “Freiburg wins with HC -2”, where new customers can cushion the risk by redeeming the Merkur Bets bonus.
But Kiel have been so strong in form in recent weeks that I can’t imagine such a clear victory for the Breisgauers.
Analysis: Kiel vs Freiburg
On the last matchday in Augsburg, Kiel brought impressive efficiency and cleverness to the pitch. As the Storks then also defended passionately, the 3:1 secured their second away win of the season.
Coach Marcel Rapp’s men were also the clear winners in the table basement, while the competition slipped up. With seven points, the newly promoted team went three Bundesliga games in a row without defeat for the first time.
KSV also celebrated two wins in a row for the first time in the top flight. That is as many victories as in the previous 15 Bundesliga games combined. The team also scored 29 league goals this year.
That’s enough for fifth place in the league. The North Germans exceeded their expected goals value this calendar year by 7.0 goals (22.0xG), more than any other club in 2025.
The club from the fjord remains in 17th place, but their lead over Bochum has grown to three points. In addition, relegation place 16 is only one point away.
However, they have already suffered ten home defeats. In addition, two white vests are the sole league low. Remberg is suspended on Saturday. Without the professional in the starting eleven, Holstein remained winless in this BL season and scored only 0.3 points per game, with him at least 0.9.
Odds Analysis
Now that I didn’t agree with the Kiel Freiburg tips of the AI, the ball is on my side. How about the bet “Machino or Bernhardsson to score”?
On the one hand, we get odds of 2.00 at Winamax, and on the other hand, this recommendation can be backed up with facts. Kiel’s Shuto Machino recently scored four goals in three BL matches in a row.
On the last three match days in the top flight, no professional was more dangerous. And KSV attacker Alexander Bernhardsson has scored five of his seven goals this season in the last five matchdays.
Since the beginning of April, no other first division player has scored more often than the Swede. The tip “More goals in half-time 2” could also make sense. SCF have scored 27 out of 46 goals after the break and conceded 30 out of 49 goals in half-time 2.
If this streak continues, the odds at Betway are 2.00. And did you know that Kiel have always taken a 1-0 lead in their last five Bundesliga matches? Then grab a Bwin voucher and odds of 2.15.
Kiel vs Freiburg: Can SCF punch their ticket to the CL?
By the 82nd minute, Freiburg were leading 2-0 against Leverkusen at home in the Europa Park Stadium last matchday. In the end, however, the Breisgau side had to settle for a 2-2 draw.
As a result, SCF were able to defend 4th place. On the other hand, the club remained without a win this season against the league’s heavyweights such as Bayern, BVB, Leipzig, Frankfurt and Bayer.
However, a happy ending is already possible on matchday 33. Dortmund must not score at Leverkusen and Leipzig must not win at Bremen. A win in Kiel would then secure Sport-Club’s ticket to the top flight.
The club from Baden have been unbeaten in four Bundesliga games, picking up ten points (3S, 1U) in the process. No first division team has scored more points since the start of matchday 29.
The Breisgau side are unbeaten away from home in six games (4S, 2U). No club has collected more white vests away from home than Freiburg (7). However, the club from the south of Germany have only won one of their last seven Bundesliga games away to league newcomers (2U, 4N).
Most recently, there have even been three defeats in a row by 2-9 goals. Coach Julian Schuster’s team also have a negative goal difference of -3. Never before has a team from the top four had a weaker goal difference after 32 Bundesliga games this season.
Who will take the lead in the direct comparison?
The two clubs have only faced each other twice on the pitch. In the 2nd DFB Cup round of the 2018/19 season, the Storks won 2-1 at home in regulation time.
The first league clash then took place on matchday 16 of the current season. The Breisgau side won 3-2 in front of their home fans, with Sport-Club leading 3-0 until the 85th minute.
My Kiel Freiburg tip:
There are certainly many things in favor of the visitors in this match. But I trust the home side to get at least a point. KSV Holstein are currently very strong and consistent.
This has given the Storks a lot of momentum and self-confidence. Freiburg also find it quite difficult against league newcomers. This is my Kiel Freiburg prediction: Double chance 1/x!