Bundesliga 27th matchday, Saturday, 29/03/2025 at 3:30 pm
Ole Werner returns to his old stomping ground. The Werder coach went through all the coaching stages at Holstein, from the youth to the A team, then almost managed to get the storks promoted to the Bundesliga and beat Bayern in the DFB Cup.
An emotional game for the 36-year-old, who had to take another defeat with Werder after the coup against Leverkusen. By now, the dreams of Europe should have been shattered.
In my Kiel Werder Bremen betting tip, I expect a spectacular goal battle, so I have mixed both teams’ goals with the “Over 2.5 goals” option at NEO.bet.
Journalists and fans are wondering what happened to Werder around Christmas. Before the winter break, Werder was considered a hot contender for a place in the European Cup after a really good first half of the season. And in 2025? Only eight points were scored in eleven games.
This actually makes SVW the team with the fewest points in the Bundesliga year. Even Kiel and Heidenheim have at least taken home one more point. What’s more, with 28 goals against, Bremen has conceded the most goals, almost three per match!
The forecast of the bookmakers
In view of this horror record, I am somewhat surprised in the 1X2 market by the fact that Werder are still quite clearly the favorites. With 2.08, the Green-Whites are ahead, Kiel only has 3.25 at home.
For the draw, betting fans get 3.70. Due to the guests’ scoring crisis, the 1.74 for the double chance 1X is not too bad. Does ChatGPT also have this bet on its radar?
AI forecast Kiel vs. Werder Bremen: ChatGPT is betting on this
No, the AI only dares to tackle the goal odds in the low and medium risk range. Among other things, it has suggested both teams scoring. Given the two shaky defensive lines and the offensive approach, this is a top recommendation.
Personally, however, I feel that the odds are too low for a single bet and I don’t think a 1-1 draw is realistic. There should be at least four goals. That’s why artificial intelligence also has over 3.5 goals as an alternative.
In my tip, I have mixed the odds equally – for a much better odds. The most confident tipsters among you could even choose the “or” function at NEO.bet. With odds of 1.32, the bet would be won if at least 2.5 goals are scored or both players score. So to speak, this is also a double chance bet.
A great feature at Werder’s official sports betting partner, who welcomes you with a €10 free bet even before you make your first deposit. If you then want to take the bonus money, you can look forward to super fair wagering requirements.
In the higher odds segment, ChatGPT has predicted the away team’s victory with both teams scoring. We are just above the 3 mark there. Due to the many Werder defeats, I’m not a big fan of this idea….
Analysis: Kiel vs. Werder Bremen
At least the list of injured players at Bremen has been reduced. Only Niklas Stark is still missing from the back four. However, this is a serious loss. It was Stark’s partnership with Marco Friedl that provided stability in the first half of the season.
In 2025, the two only started together twice. On the other side, Marcel Rapp will also have to rely on a compromise solution on Saturday. Colin Kleine-Bekel has been missing since the start of the season. In addition, Max Geschwill, Ivan Nekic and Patrick Erras are in rehab.
Two struggling defenses are never a bad thing for a goal bet. If you like it a bit riskier, you could also try the “Over 3.5 goals” instead of the “Over 2.5 goals”. Then we are almost talking about a 3-fold odds here.
And as a new Winamax customer, you can take on this risk completely risk-free. That’s because this bookie will double your first deposit in the form of free bets. The winnings can be paid out directly and your real money only needs to be wagered at 1.05 before being withdrawn.
Odds Analysis
Werder has also long since become the second-biggest shooting gallery in the league with its 53 goals conceded. The undisputed but unwanted number one is still bottom-of-the-league Kiel with 64 goals.
After beating Leverkusen 2-0, but then also suffering mentally against Gladbach (2-4), Bremen suffered a nasty home defeat, while Kiel lost 3-1 in Heidenheim in the basement thriller.
They previously beat Union Berlin, followed by a 2-2 draw at home against VfB Stuttgart, who were a man down for much of the game. Incidentally, the only clean sheet at home was against Heidenheim in the first leg. The Bremen goal is not profitable at 1.15, but the situation is different for Over 1.5 SVW goals at 1.80.
Kiel vs. Werder Bremen: Bitter Kiel defeat in first leg
However, I prefer the goal of both teams. Because Bremen was only able to keep a clean sheet this year against Bayer and in the 1-0 win against Mainz. Getting a clean sheet against Kiel is really difficult.
The KSV has scored in twelve of the last 13 league games. This was also the case in the first leg of the tie, when they lost 2-1 at the Weser Stadium. It was only in the final stages of the game that Oliver Burke, who had been on the receiving end of a lot of criticism at Werder, was able to score the decisive goal.
After a good second half from the storks, it was a very unfortunate defeat for the promoted team, from whom I now expect an even more ambitious performance in this precarious table situation. Because after the Heidenheim collapse, the only thing that counts against the worst team in 2025 is the full three points.
After all, we must not forget that this is already the fourth-last home game of the season. After that, the team will be traveling to Dortmund, Leipzig, to the in-form Mainzers and the defensive artists from Augsburg, among other places.
Last duels speak for my tip
The two northern clubs have met 36 times in total. However, only the last three encounters are really interesting, the others were played in 1981 or earlier.
In two of the three more recent encounters, Werner was on the sidelines against his former club. Before the Bundesliga clash, the teams faced each other in the league, with Bremen being immediately promoted but losing out to Kiel in both direct duels.
In the 1-2 first leg, SVW were still playing with interim coach Christian Brand after the vaccination certificate scandal surrounding Markus Anfang. In the rematch, Bremen then conceded another narrow defeat (2-3) in the promotion race.
In any case, the direct duels confirm our selection. So far, we’ve seen at least three goals every time and clean sheets have been few and far between.
My Kiel Werder Bremen Tip:
Kiel is almost damned to win at this stage of the season and after the defeat against Heidenheim, especially when the match against the ex-coach and the worst team of the year is at home.
As with my successful Bremen Gladbach betting tip, the deciding factor for me when choosing a bet is that two strong attacks are facing each other, but also vulnerable defenses, which also do not have their best line-ups.
I have a colorful back and forth on the slip and can imagine some high-scoring results here. That’s why I’m going to go for the same bet again, just like in my last Werder betting tip!
My prediction: Both teams will score, the 2.5 goals mark will be broken!
