Wimbledon, Final, Saturday, 13.07.2024, 15:30
We have a final – and one that probably nobody expected! The women’s competition at Wimbledon comes to an end on Saturday – and anyone expecting names like Switatek, Rybakina or Gauff in the final was completely wrong.
For both players, it is only the second time they have made it this far at a major, so the nervousness is likely to be all the greater.
In my Krejcikova Paolini tip, I’ll tell you what match I’m expecting and why I’m betting on three sets here
Once the round of the best 16 – and suddenly the double final! Jasmine Paolini is having a year that she probably never even dared to dream of. The 1.63m tall Italian is in a Grand Slam final for the second time in a row.
She had already set a new record for herself at the Australian Open in January, finally reaching the round of 16, but later in Paris she was unable to beat the dominant Iga Swiatek.
She moved up to seventh place in the world rankings and it is now clear that this was more than just a flash in the pan. Paolini is on the brink of the greatest success of her career.
Without wishing to diminish her achievements in London, the 28-year-old was also somewhat fortunate that she didn’t have to play against the entire world elite in terms of opponents
After her 7-5, 6-3 opening set against Sara Sorribes Tormo, she won 7-6, 6-2 against Greet Minnen and followed that up with a 7-6, 6-1 win against Bianca Andreescu – three smooth victories that boosted her confidence enormously.
Paolini then had to really get down to business for the first time against Madison Keys. Her opponent had to retire injured at 6-3, 6-7, 5-5, so nobody really knows whether things might have gone wrong here.
Paolini, however, was not deterred by this thought and promptly followed up with a quick 6-2, 6-1 against Emma Navarro. Her opponent in the semi-finals was finally decided: Donna Vekic from Croatia.
The Italian was definitely nervous, losing the first set 2-6, but then she pulled herself together, took the set 6-4, 7-6 and was able to celebrate. The best match of the tournament? She certainly didn’t deliver that here
14 break chances for her opponent, 67% points won on her first serve and only 49% on her second serve don’t exactly speak for perfect service. Is Paolini, at just 1.63 meters, generally a weaker server?
Only once have these figures exceeded the 70 mark, so Paolini’s fighting spirit over the entire duration of the match is the decisive factor. How do the bookmakers rate her chances in the final?
The odds see them slightly behind with an average of 2.20 to 1.65. She has already met Barbora Krejcikova in the qualifiers for the 2018 Australian Open, losing 2-6, 1-6.
Of course, this result is unlikely to affect the final. So while many of you will already be preoccupied with the European Championship final, it’s time for some top-class tennis on Saturday …
… with a true clay specialist! Barrbora was already world No. 1 once before, winning the French Open in 2021. This was followed by three more quarter-finals at major tournaments, so she didn’t achieve perfect results on the big stage either
Quarter-final, 3rd round, 2nd round? In her three Wimbledon appearances, her results initially got weaker and weaker. But now she has made it to the final and wants to show everyone there.
Anyone who loses the first set against top player Yelena Rybakina in the semi-finals, then turns up the heat and wins 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, should definitely have the potential to end up on top.
Before this energetic performance, Krejcikova had won 6-4, 7-6 against Jelena Ostapenko and also sent Danielle Collins home with a 7-5, 6-3 win – three strong opponents!
Admittedly, her victories against Jessica Bouzas (6-0, 4-3 w.O.) and Katie Volynets (7-6, 7-6) were to be expected, but then, unlike Paolini, the Czech showed how to beat the really big names.
Krejcikova is 1.78m tall, which naturally gives her considerably more height. She has won more than 80% of her points on her first serve in three of the last four matches, so she seems to have the edge here
My Krejcikova Paolini tip
Jasmine Paolini and Barbora Krejcikova are the two Wimbledon finalists – that comes as a surprise to me too! Paolini confirms her upward trend, but also benefited from relatively easy opponents in London.
Ultimately, I find it really difficult to choose between her and Krejcikova. Both play such big matches very rarely, are likely to be nervous and make mistakes. And that’s exactly why I’m going for the following tip:
We’ll see three sets here!
