Europa League, Quarter-final, Second Leg, Thursday, 17.04.2025 at 21:00
I’ve already framed my Bodö/Glimt Lazio Rome tip for the first leg in my mind. It’s just a shame that I didn’t predict a home win as well as a brace for the Norwegians. If I had, my sports betting payout would have been even more generous.
Can the Biancocelesti deliver a response at the Olimpico that is high enough to make up the two-goal deficit or even completely reverse it within 90 minutes?
The first leg against Bodö/Glimt was a bitter disappointment for Lazio – the 0-2 defeat should give the Italians plenty to think about. However, if we look at the historical data, the second leg could still be exciting.
Lazio have often found themselves in similar situations in the past and have proven that they are capable of improving in the second leg.
Their last encounter with a Norwegian team, for example, ended in a 3-1 home win against Rosenborg in the 2015 Europa League.
The facts therefore point to an intense second leg in which Lazio may be forced to open up relatively early at the back.
The bookmakers’ prediction
The Lazio Rome Bodö/Glimt odds speak for themselves: the home advantage is rated at a surprisingly low average of 1.40, making Lazio the clear favorite.
A draw, with odds of 4.80, could give hope for a surprise twist, but that seems rather unlikely.
Bodö/Glimt’s underdog status has been clearly underlined with odds of 7.00, which, according to the bookies, would be a big surprise for them.
AI prediction Lazio Rome vs Bodö/Glimt: ChatGPT’s prediction
The Lazio Rome Bodö/Glimt AI prediction from ChatGPT provides exciting betting options for the second leg, and I will once again be testing one or two of these suggestions with a betting provider that does not charge tax.
For the high risk, “Lazio to win with a handicap of -2” is suggested at odds of around 3.40. That sounds tempting, but I don’t think Lazio will win by such a large margin – it’s too risky for me.
For a medium risk, the AI recommends “Both teams to score.” That seems much more realistic to me, and a 2-1 would indeed be my personal desired result, although it would not result in extra time.
For a safe bet, the tip is ultimately “Over 2.5 goals.” In my opinion, this is the safest option, as Lazio will have to open up early to make up for the deficit from the first leg. A high number of goals seems very likely here.
Analysis: Lazio Rome vs Bodö/Glimt
Incidentally, I was also able to provide you with a successful Lazio Rome AS Roma tip last weekend. Apparently, I read the “Biancocelesti” like an open book (1:1).
In any case, the 1-0 away win over Atalanta remains their only victory since the beginning of March, which points to an obvious drop in performance.
The slump is not due to the absence of one or two key players, but rather seems to be the result of a mental problem within the team.
The Norwegians, on the other hand, have started the new 2025 season fresh and full of enthusiasm.
Bodö/Glimt has won its four competitive games since the start of the new Norwegian season and is still waiting to concede a goal.
It won’t be long before that happens, but the bottom line is that the “Yellow Horde” couldn’t be better prepared for this return leg at the Olimpico.
Odds analysis
“Jens Petter Hauge to score” at 6.00 – an outsider tip with potential! Hauge is a fast and unpredictable player who always creates dangerous moments. With these odds, it could be worth betting on him to score.
“Double chance X2” at 2.95, on the other hand, is a solid value tip! Even if a narrow victory for the Italians seems likely, the odds for a draw or an away win are very attractive.
Given the balance between the teams, a 1-1 draw is certainly within the realm of possibility.
Lazio Rome vs. Bodö/Glimt odds: Déjà vu?
This will not be an easy trip for the Norwegians. They don’t like it south of the Alps. After all, Bodö/Glimt have not won any of their six away games in Italy (including qualifiers), recording one draw and five defeats.
Their last away game in Italy was in the quarter-final second leg, when they lost 4-0 to Roma in the 2021/22 Conference League.
This record makes it clear why football analysts are convinced that it will be difficult for the Norwegians to survive away in Italy, especially against a strong team like Lazio.
However, the famous “half the battle” may already have been won. The Italians’ deficit is statistically “fatal.” After all, Lazio have been eliminated in 12 of their last 15 major European knockout stages in which they lost the first leg.
Only against Chornomorets Odesa in the 1975/76 UEFA Cup, Boavista in the 1977/78 UEFA Cup and FCSB in the 2017/18 UEFA Europa League have they been able to turn the tie around in the second leg.
Nevertheless, they have never managed to overturn a two-goal deficit from the first leg.
Is it impossible for the Norwegians to be eliminated?
And do you know why I also think that the Norwegians’ lead simply cannot melt away in sunny Rome? Teams that have won the first leg of a Europa League knockout tie by two or more goals have progressed 94% of the time (144 out of 154 cases).
In the quarter-finals, the progression rate is 84% (16 out of 19 cases). The only exceptions were Basel (2013/14 against Valencia), Lazio (2017/18 against RB Salzburg), and Benfica (2018/19 against Eintracht Frankfurt).
This clearly suggests that Lazio’s deficit in this case is a very high hurdle to overcome.
Nevertheless, I think the Italians will celebrate an “unsatisfactory” 2-1 victory in the end. After all, Lazio are unbeaten at home in the Europa League in 13 games (7 wins, 6 draws) since losing to Celtic in November 2019 (2-1).
However, they have gone winless in their last three knockout rounds (2 draws, 1 defeat) since beating RB Salzburg 4-2 in April 2018.
My recommendation for a goal bet: Bodö/Glimt’s Jens Petter Hauge. He created five chances from open play in the first leg and has created a total of 21 in this season’s Europa League, with only three players creating more.
It is the highest number ever achieved by a Norwegian player in a Europa League season. A player who is so creative could well score again in this match.
My Lazio Rome Bodö/Glimt tip:
The betting providers’ clear commitment to an Italian victory seems far too one-dimensional to me.
It cannot be denied that the Biancocelesti have declined enormously in recent weeks, while Bodö/Glimt currently appear to be in excellent form.
Accordingly, my Lazio Rome Bodö/Glimt tip is: The visitors will make it to the semi-finals.
