Ligue 1, Saturday, 18/01/2025 at 5:00 PM
How does a team motivate itself when it seems to have everything under control and usually decides for itself how high it wins, regardless of the opponent? Paris St. Germain seems to be unbeatable again in 2024/25.
The star squad is heading to Lille on Saturday, but the Doges are not waiting there. A sure thing? Definitely not!
In my Lens PSG betting tip, I’ll tell you why it could be closer than expected and why I’ve gone for an Under 3.5 goals.
When it comes to Paris St. Germain, there’s usually only one question: is it fun to analyze the team or is it a bit boring? My answer… is somewhere in the middle.
Admittedly, with a seven-point lead after 17 rounds, I can’t speak of a preliminary decision yet. Nevertheless, nothing really suggests that the leaders could falter.
Paris is unbeaten, having won 13 times and drawn four. Admittedly, the most recent draws were quite surprising. 1:1 against Nantes and 0:0 against Auxerre – so every now and then the offense takes a break.
PSG also returned from the winter break a little tired, only managing a 2:1 at home against St. Etienne. Of 25 shots, only two went in, the team can do better in terms of efficiency.
It has to, after all, the Champions League continues soon and Paris is threatening to be eliminated! The self-confidence has to come from the league. I don’t want to completely sweep the xx:xx against Espaly under the carpet, but against an amateur club in the cup, you just have to win.
Five clean sheets after 17 match days? It may be a luxury problem (with 15 goals conceded in total, the defense is the best in the league), but most of the time PSG does not actually get through without conceding a goal.
Eight times it was exactly one. This means that I will briefly discuss Interwetten. Here, there is the option to bet on exactly one goal for Lens. The odds would definitely be worthwhile at 2.45.
Since three of the four draws were away from home, maybe there is some way to get past the best club in France after all. Two days before Christmas, PSG and Lens last met directly.
In the 5th round of the cup, the score was 1-1, and the penalty shootout was decided in favor of the favorite in the end. That means that Paris has actually only won one of the last five matches in Lens in direct competition!
1:1, 2:0, 1:3, 1:1, 0:1, this sequence does not read particularly successfully. It is enough, which does not surprise me, of course, to slip into the role of favorite with our tax-free betting providers.
The average odds are 1.75 to 4.15. For Lens, it is clear that it will need an absolute dream day. The Lensois are showing a rather changeable side, curiously enough, they have won more games than PSG (seven)!
With 16 goals conceded, Paris has 15, so the defense is not the big problem. Rather, I can see that the team does not feel comfortable enough in their own stadium.
They have only won three times at home, with 8 goals scored and 8 goals conceded after eight games leaving little room for a spectacle. A 3-2 win against Nantes and a 1-3 loss to Marseille improved their average, with the other games being rather dull.
Two 2-0 wins, two 0-0 draws, plus a 0-1 and a 0-2, often the BTS is really not accurate here. Since they have never lost twice in a row at home, the fans are of course hoping for at least a point against PSG.
How seriously is Paris taking the game in Lens? The league leaders’ fans should know that the trip hasn’t always been fun in recent years. They also needed a penalty shoot-out in the cup just before Christmas.
At the same time, however, Lens are not a team that play well at home, and things usually happen relatively slowly in their own stadium. They started the new year against St. Etienne, and the 2-1 result was not a revelation in terms of attacking play either.
Since I expect a relatively competitive game and know the numbers that Lens deliver at home, I have decided on an over/under bet. My tip for you is:
The 3.5 goals will not be cracked!
