Real Madrid – Las Palmas betting tip, prediction & odds 01/19/2025

La Liga, Sunday, 19/01/2025 at 4:15 pm

Before I looked at my Real Madrid Las Palmas tip, I wasn’t even aware of how poorly Las Palmas had scored before Diego Martinez was signed.

At the time of his signing, Los Amarillos had been waiting 241 days for a competitive victory. With the 43-year-old on the sidelines, however, there was a complete shift and Las Palmas won eight of 13 competitive games.

I don’t see Las Palmas going down at the Santiago Bernabeu, but I do expect “Real Madrid Under 2.5 goals”. ODDSET offers surprisingly high odds of 2.25 for this outcome.

There is actually no team against which Real Madrid is not favored by the sports betting providers at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Especially not against Las Palmas. Even with a boost in odds, the Madrilenians are not likely to end up in any range of a win rate that can produce real value.

On a completely different planet are the odds for a success of the guests, who can win 17.5 times with an away win.

However, a three-way bet is not the right tool for me in my Real Madrid Las Palmas betting tip. But there are plenty of other offers in the bookmakers’ portfolio.

Las Palmas initiated an incredible turnaround with the first coaching dismissal of the season. Los Amarillos had only collected three points from nine league games until then. The only bright spot was a 1-1 home draw against… Real Madrid.

But that was not enough for the leaders, who were on the verge of going a year without a competitive win. Fortunately, the new coach was able to relieve them of this concern.

Diego Martinez won the island club’s hearts, immediately got the team behind him and led the club straight out of the relegation zone. The visitors have now built up a six-point cushion to the first relegation place.

Las Palmas have won eight of 13 competitive games under Martinez, averaging 1.92 points and playing a complex mix of harakiri attacking pressing and parking the bus in the Mourinho style.

The number of goals they have conceded has often been kept below 0.99 xGA in recent matches, so the total of 32.6 xGA (19th) doesn’t unsettle me.

The role of the underdog suits Los Amarillos extremely well and favorites rarely have an easy game with Martinez’s protégés. Even FC Barcelona (1:2) failed in their own stadium against Las Palmas.

Under Martinez, Las Palmas conceded “under 2.5 goals” in nine out of ten league games and often had the right tactical trick up its sleeve to counter the opposing offense.

In the three previous direct duels with Real Madrid, Las Palmas never conceded more than two goals, thereby always forcing the Royal into tricky match situations.

I could imagine a similar result in this game. At least I think a landslide victory with at least a three-goal difference is rather unlikely.

In this case, the regeneration time is a factor. While the guests played their last competitive game on January 12, Real Madrid have to play Celta Vigo in the Copa del Rey just three days before this game.

On top of that, Vinicius Junior is serving a one-match suspension and his qualities in the final third cannot be adequately replaced.

The Brazilian has scored 15 league goals so far this season (8 goals, 7 assists), making him the Whites’ top scorer.

To keep the game exciting until the end, Jasper Cillessen will probably need to show some great reflexes.

The 35-year-old goalkeeper has kept two of his last three league clean sheets and has been in good form recently.

Compared to all La Liga goalkeepers, Cillessen, with a rate of 69.6 percent of balls parried, is among the seven best keepers in the Spanish Primera Division.

Tibaut Courtois is thus wafer-thin in his gloves (69.4 percent). Since Martinez took the helm, Cillessen has not conceded more than one goal in six of ten league games.

The Dutchman was particularly impressive in the 2-1 win against Barcelona, saving seven shots and making three saves in his own penalty area.

The “Royals” are not playing their most consistent season either and have already come in for criticism several times due to their form fluctuations.

I expect a difficult game for the Madrilenians, who lack the necessary regeneration time compared to Las Palmas.

The visitors are on the right track to avoid relegation and are a team that can pull off an upset against a top team here and there.

My Real Madrid Las Palmas betting tip is: Real Madrid Under 2.5 Goals!

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