Leverkusen – Celje Tip Europa League, Matchday 1 on Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 21:00 CET
Bayer Leverkusen have an absolute must-play in the Europa League opener. I’ll provide you with the right Leverkusen Celje tip so that you are well prepared for this one-sided game.
For me, it’s clear: the Werkself won’t let anything go to waste here and will dominate from the start. My main tip is therefore: Leverkusen will win both halves.
The Slovenians are making their debut in the league phase of the Europa League and are likely to be simply overwhelmed by the crowd and the quality of the opponent. Leverkusen also want to set an example after the mixed start to the league and therefore start at full throttle!
After the Werkself narrowly escaped disaster at the weekend, they now have to put in a commanding performance on the international stage. Against the Slovenian champions NK Celje, all experts expect a clear home victory anyway.
Kick-off at the BayArena is at 21:00 CET on Wednesday evening. The sports betting providers see the guests from Slovenia as blatant outsiders, who are hardly given a chance of winning a point. Anything else would be a sensation.
For Bayer it is only the second meeting with a Slovenian club. Previously, there were two Champions League duels with NK Maribor in 1999, in which they remained unbeaten (one win, one draw).
Leverkusen – Celje Prediction & Betting Tips
For an alternative Leverkusen Celje tip, I also look at the goal market. A bet on Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.70 is a promising option. In the Werkself’s European home games last season, an average of 4.5 goals were scored per game.
You should also have Patrik Schick on your list. The Czech striker is in top form and scores like on a conveyor belt. A bet on Schick scoring 2+ goals is a speculative free bet at odds of 2.92 at any time.
Bayer 04/Bayer 04 at around 1.55 should be a particularly safe bet in this context, as the home side are likely to win the game early on.
What you need to know about Leverkusen vs. Celje betting
- In 7 of the last 8 Leverkusen games, over 2.5 goals have been scored.
- Celje have scored in each of the last 13 away matches.
- Patrik Schick scored in all four games of the 2026/27 season.
- In 7 of Bayer’s last 8 Bundesliga games, goals have been scored on both sides.
Leverkusen – Celje: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our AI tool impressively underpins the home team’s clear role as favourites. The calculated probability of victory for Leverkusen is an overwhelming 81.1%. In contrast, the chance for Celje seems vanishingly small.
A draw is rated at 11.0%, while a victory for the guests from Slovenia is rated as extremely unlikely at only 7.9%. The data speaks a very clear language in favour of the Werkself.
The predicted number of goals is also interesting. The AI tool expects a total of 3.10 goals in this game. That coincides with the expectation of an entertaining and attacking game at the BayArena on Wednesday evening.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Leverkusen |
Draw |
Victory Celje |
| 81.1% |
11% |
7.9% |
The algorithm expects 2.55 goals for Leverkusen and only 0.55 goals for Celje. These figures illustrate the expected offensive dominance of the German team and the low chances of the guests scoring.
By the way, this analysis only supports my Leverkusen Celje tip from the headline even more. A team that is expected to score over 2.5 goals is highly likely to remain in control in both halves of the game and also score at least one goal each.
The Leverkusen Celje odds for an easy victory are very low. Therefore, it makes sense to use data analysis to focus on alternative betting markets anyway to find a more attractive value for your stakes.
The best odds for Leverkusen vs. Celje
A look at the 1X2 odds confirms expectations. With an average of 1.20 on a home win, it is hardly possible to achieve any significant profits without a massive odds boost.
A draw, on the other hand, would already be a big surprise. Celje’s current form and the immense difference in quality between the two teams make a point for the Slovenians at the BayArena an unlikely scenario.
An away win for Celje would be tantamount to a sensation and is quoted correspondingly high by the bookmakers. The guests simply lack the necessary experience and class to hold their own against a Bundesliga team.
Therefore, it is imperative to look into alternative betting markets such as handicap betting or goal betting. Only there will you find attractive Leverkusen Celje betting odds that offer a reasonable risk-reward ratio.
Leverkusen vs Celje Match Analysis:
Leverkusen are in a small crisis of results and need a convincing win to calm the critics. The clear 4-0 win against Union Berlin on the second matchday serves as an important benchmark for the team.
Meanwhile, NK Celje should not be too much of a hurdle. The Slovenian champions are fighting in the domestic league themselves and find themselves only in the lower half of the table after nine matchdays. The form curve is pointing downwards.
Among experts, there is no doubt about who will determine the course of the game. All relevant metrics and statistics clearly speak for a dominant performance of Bayer Leverkusen in front of their home crowd.
The Werkself have the second-highest possession percentage in the Bundesliga with 64.7%. Against an opponent like Celje, who is clearly inferior in terms of play, a value of over 70% is to be expected. The game will go in one direction.
Celje will probably have to find themselves in their own half most of the time and defend deeply. For dangerous counterattacks, the team lacks the necessary speed and individual quality at this high level.
If the Slovenians don’t surprise with a set-piece or Leverkusen weaken themselves with an early red card, we’re in for a one-goal game at the BayArena. One-way street football is pre-programmed here.
Leverkusen form check
It would be premature to speak of a tangible crisis. The fact is, however, that Bayer Leverkusen’s start to the season did not meet the high expectations of the club management and the fans. The results are not yet correct.
Four points from the first three league games against Elversberg, Union Berlin and Augsburg are not enough. In view of the schedule, the club would have had to have at least seven points to be on target.
What you can’t deny the team, however, is the superiority of the game. In the 2-2 draw against Augsburg, they earned 1.54 xG more than their opponents and fired an incredible 30 shots. The conversion of chances was the only big problem.
The offense around the new signing Ibrahim Maza is getting better and better. With an xG value of 7.6, Leverkusen creates the third most scoring chances in the entire Bundesliga. The only thing that is currently lacking is efficiency in finishing.
So it seems to be only a matter of time before this team breaks the knot and the goals fall in series. The potential for high-scoring games is undoubtedly there, as the statistics clearly show.
By the way: Patrik Schick is expected to start against Celje. His presence in the penalty area should give the offense an additional boost and further increase the chances of a sweeping victory.
Celje Form Check
At NK Celje, there is little to suggest that they could cause a sensation. The form of the Slovenians is worrying, which significantly dampens hopes of a surprise coup against a top European club.
In the domestic league alone, three of the last four competitive games have been lost. This negative series shows that the team is currently struggling with significant problems and is far from its best form.
Especially the recent 2-1 defeat against Bravo last Saturday was a bitter setback. With this result, the reigning champions slipped into the bottom half of the table, which adds to the bad mood.
A small glimmer of hope is the impressive away record. Celje have managed to score at least one goal in each of their last 13 competitive matches away from home. So their offense should not be underestimated.
Although there are no real superstars in the squad, Svit Seslar is a key figure in the offensive. The midfielder is the team’s top scorer in the current league season with three goals in five appearances.
With regard to Wednesday evening, it can be assumed that Celje will choose a very defensive tactic to hold their own against the strong Werkself. However, they are likely to stick to their rehearsed 4-2-3-1 formation despite the defensive orientation.
