Bundesliga matchday 33, Sunday, 11.05.2025 at 15:30
Dortmund are the team of the moment in the Bundesliga. Borussia are unbeaten in six league games, have won all of their last three BL games and have picked up 16 of a possible 18 points.
No other first division team has scored so many points in this period. With this haul, Black & Yellow have climbed from 11th to 5th place. Champions League qualification is once again within reach, one point behind 4th place.
Will the Westphalians’ race to catch up continue? My Leverkusen Dortmund betting tip revolves around this question:
The task at Bayer Leverkusen on Sunday is definitely another high hurdle, even if the Werkself’s form curve has not been so sparkling in recent weeks.
B04 have long since wrapped up the runners-up spot. There’s no way up or down. In the end, this is also an important point for me and my Leverkusen Dortmund prediction.
So I opt for the bet “Double chance X/2 & Over 1.5 goals” at odds of 1.63 at Interwetten.
The bookmakers’ forecast?
Bayer is three places and 17 points ahead of BVB after 32 rounds of the season. Of course, home advantage also plays a role in the Leverkusen vs Dortmund odds.
Nevertheless, the best bookmakers, which also include Apple Pay betting providers and sports betting providers with PayPal, send the visitors into the race as slight favorites. This has to do with two things.
On the one hand, the form curve speaks in favor of the Westphalians. On the other hand, nothing is at stake for the Werkself. A win for Black & Yellow will be rewarded with average odds of 2.38.
On the other side, betting odds of between 2.60 and 2.75 await you for a win for Leverkusen against Dortmund.
AI prediction Leverkusen vs Dortmund: ChatGPT
What does ChatGPT have to say about this top match on matchday 33? With a low risk, the AI has a safe bet for us this time: Because here the Leverkusen Dortmund tip “Over 2.5 goals” is suggested.
And after all, the second and third best offenses in the Bundesliga 2024/25 will meet on Sunday. Also, the team with the best chance conversion (BVB) and the team with the best chance conversion (B04) will face each other.
However, you only get odds of 1.50 for this bet at Bet365, after which the artificial intelligence takes a medium risk and expects the visitors to score the first goal of the match.
As a new or existing customer of Bwin, you can first redeem the Bwin voucher here and secure odds of 1.88 for this bet. Since Black & Yellow have to play for victory in their comeback, a success of the tip is also quite possible.
ChatGPT is not as creative with the high-risk recommendation this time and opts for a draw. However, only two of the last 14 duels between Leverkusen and Dortmund have ended in a draw.
On the other hand, coach Xabi Alonso’s men are the league’s draw kings this season. Winamax is offering odds of 3.95 for a draw in any case.
Analysis: Leverkusen vs Dortmund
Last matchday, Leverkusen drew 2-2 in Freiburg to equal Bayern’s record of 33 consecutive away games without defeat (2012 to 2014). However, the draw was rather fortunate.
The visitors only scored twice. They also had an expected goals value of 0.29. Nevertheless, Bayer were able to extend their streak: The Werkself have not lost any of their last 27 Bundesliga games on a Sunday (18S, 9U).
Coach Xabi Alonso’s side are also unbeaten in seven Bundesliga games (4S, 3U). However, last year’s double winners have had to settle for a point in three of their last matches.
Bayer have already drawn a total of eleven games this season. Together with Leipzig, that is the highest tally in the league in 2024/25. In Breisgau, the team was also able to demonstrate its great morale again.
Leverkusen have already picked up 13 points this season after falling behind. Only FC Bayern have a better tally here (14). The Werkself even scored against SCF for the third time this season after trailing by two goals.
Only RB Leipzig have managed that so often this season. B04 also have the second-best defense (37) and the second-best offense (68) in the top flight this season. It was also announced on Friday that coach Xabi Alonso has signed a contract with Real Madrid for 2025/26.
Odds Analysis
You haven’t had enough after ChatGPT’s suggestions? Then let’s continue our Leverkusen Dortmund tips with the expectation of a few goals. And what do we need for a game with lots of goals?
That’s right, goalscorers! Leverkusen’s Patrik Schick and Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy have each scored 19 goals this Bundesliga season, only Harry Kane has scored more (24 times).
If you deduct the Bayern attacker’s nine penalties, Schick and Guirassy are even ahead. While the Czech has yet to convert a penalty, the BVB striker has only scored twice from the spot.
Merkur Bets also has decent odds available for the two prolific scorers. A goal from Schick is 2.35 and a goal from Guirassy is 2.10. And for new customers, the provider also has a Merkur Bets welcome bonus in store!
Leverkusen vs Dortmund: Is there a happy ending for BVB?
When the decision to appoint Niko Kovac as BVB’s new coach was made at the beginning of February, it came as something of a surprise to fans and experts alike.
But it now appears that the coach was exactly the right man for Borussia. The Croatian concentrated on the core business, relying on a clear speech and a clear distribution of tasks.
This is how he got the team back on track. With Leverkusen securing a point at Freiburg last Sunday, Dortmund are just one point behind SC in fourth place.
This is the best position for the club this season since matchday 13. Black & Yellow also have the best shot conversion (21.1%) and the best chance conversion (33.7%) in the league.
However, 49 goals conceded is only enough for ninth place. In this millennium, the team has only conceded more goals in the league twice (62 in 2007/08 and 52 in 2021/22). However, the defense is currently functioning quite well
and that despite Can and Schlotterbeck being out injured recently. Can is expected back on Sunday. However, 18 points from 16 away games are only enough for 12th place in the away table.
Will B04 win at home against BVB again?
Our databases contain 107 matches between Leverkusen and Dortmund. With 46 to 34 successes, BVB is ahead in the direct comparison (27U). However, things look a little different when Bayer are the visitors.
The home side lead the record here (22S, 15U, 16N). B04 won the first leg of the current season 3-2 at Signal-Iduna-Park. Now, for the first time since 2006/07, they could win both BL games against the Westphalians this season.
However, in the Leverkusen Dortmund prediction we must also take into account that the double winner from the previous season has not had a BL home win against any Bundesliga team for as long as against Borussia (3 games, 1U, 2N).
B04 are still without a home win against Dortmund under Xabi Alonso. However, Niko Kovac only has a lower points average against Bayern Munich (0.2) than against Bayer 04 (0.7).
My Leverkusen Dortmund tip:
Leverkusen are struggling in the final spurt of the season. The fact that nothing is at stake anymore and the departure of coach Xabi Alonso is imminent is not exactly having a positive effect on the team.
They would certainly like to give the coach a fitting farewell. But I’m afraid that there’s not more than one point in it. BVB are the strongest team in the Bundesliga over the last six matchdays and are still keen to qualify for the top flight.
This is my Leverkusen Dortmund prediction: Double chance x/2 & Over 1.5 goals
