Champions League, Wednesday, 12/03/2024 at 6:45 PM
Borussia Dortmund seemed to have overcome a difficult phase, but now the crisis is back at BVB! Tonight, the black and yellows are challenged in Lille and, after the 1:1 in the first leg, they somehow have to make sure that they are on top after 90 or 120 minutes.
Do I have a favorite in my Lille Dortmund betting tip? The bookmakers don’t! So it looks like it’s going to be a close game, which is why it was all the more difficult to choose a bet. I decided on an “under 2.5 goals”.
In the first leg, both scored once, so now I can imagine that avoiding mistakes and thus defending will be the top priority for the second leg. In addition, the black and yellows made a fool of themselves offensively in the recent 1-0 loss to Augsburg in the Bundesliga.
Should Borussia be knocked out, and I certainly don’t rule that out, the mood in Dortmund could of course deteriorate significantly further. Of course, it doesn’t have to come to that, because Lille don’t like playing against German teams.
But BVB would be wise to be wary: in their own stadium, Lille have been convincing in every respect in the CL season so far, even beating Real Madrid. So if one of them underestimates the other, the game could escalate in either direction.
The bookmakers’ prediction
Favorite: None at all! With our bookmakers that support Apple Pay, it looks like BVB is, in places, very slightly ahead. On average, however, you can remember that both teams will start with an approximate 2.60.
The odds for advancing are similar. Many bookmakers have identical odds of 1.90 on offer, while others see Dortmund as having a slight advantage. So does it actually have to be a draw?
Not necessarily, because with odds of 3.50, a draw is neither particularly unlikely nor particularly likely. But of course it is also clear that all three previous direct duels ended without a winner.
AI prediction Lille vs Dortmund: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Did the AI include the difficult phase of Dortmund in its analysis? I don’t always agree with ChatPGT’s suggestions, but this time we’ve come up with three interesting tips again.
Will Serhou Guirassy score the first goal of the game? The attacker has already scored ten times, but not twice in a row. Since BVB only fell behind once and you really want to take a lot of risk, this tip would make sense.
At medium risk, the artificial intelligence presents us with the bet “Over 3.5 goals”. Of course, I have to disagree with this because of my own bet. A goal festival in Lille? Of course, nothing is out of the question, but in my opinion, a tactical game is more likely.
ChatGPT sees the low risk in the tip “Lille will advance”. I see this more as a classic 50/50 thing. A reliable prediction is simply not possible at this point.
Analysis: Lille vs Dortmund
They were actually on such a good path! After the false start under Niko Kovac, Borussia Dortmund had finally won two Bundesliga games in a row, but apparently Union Berlin (6:0) and St. Pauli (2:0) were not the benchmark.
The black and yellow had survived the playoffs in the premier class with 3-0 and 0-0 against Sporting Lisbon, and the draw brought OSC Lille as an opponent. The result of the first leg: a single shot on target, the final score was 1-1.
Dortmund’s response in the Bundesliga: a disappointing 0-1 loss to Augsburg. Once again, the Borussia team only managed a single shot on target, so the defeat was fully deserved.
The fans have turned their backs on their team, and the pressure ahead of the trip to Lille is immense. Is the draw from the first leg even the decisive bad omen before duel number two?
Odds analysis
Dortmund have only conceded a single goal in the first half in the Champions League so far, which is impressive! After the break, however, there were twelve. On the one hand, I would consider the bet “Lille does not score in the first half”, which has odds of 1.70 at Betano.
At the same time, the tip “More goals in half time two” makes sense, here we would be at a rate of 2.00.
Since Borussia went into the half-time break with a lead six times and Lille have always scored goals in the first half in the premier class, the half-time result “1:0 Dortmund” could also be profitable in combination with the first tip mentioned above.
The odds shoot up to an effective 4.50.
When there has been a draw at home in the first leg of a knockout round, Dortmund has been knocked out of the international competition in six out of seven cases!
BVB have won three times this CL season, with a 3-0 scoreline against Bruges, Dinamo Zagreb and Sporting Lisbon. In the 2019/20 season, the team last lost to a French team in the round of 16, when PSG was too strong.
However, you can set your sights on the new customer bonus from Bet365. Click on the graphic to reveal the bonus code and use it when registering to get up to 100 euros in betting credits.
Will Lille confirm their home strength?
A round of 16 against Lille? The fans already experienced that in the UEFA Cup in 2002. After a 1-1 away draw, a 0-0 in the second leg was enough to advance, back then there was the famous away goals rule.
Serhou Guirassy has neither scored nor provided an assist in the last two Champions League games, but before that he had a hand in scoring in literally every game. Perhaps it’s now encounter number three?
One thing is clear: if Lille knock us out on Wednesday, we’ll have a tough international break ahead of us. Lille should be a little more relaxed going into the second leg, having passed the national test with a 1-0 win over Montpellier.
The Doges have never reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League, losing out to Manchester United and Chelsea in the last 16 in 2007 and 2022. Will a German opponent bring more success?
Historically, probably not, because only two of twelve duels have been won. Of course, the French are counting on their home strength, which has been proven many times this CL season.
1-0 against Real Madrid, 1-1 against Juventus Turin, 3-2 against Sturm Graz and 6-1 against Feyenoord Rotterdam, there was really nothing to complain about here. Jonathan David is worth mentioning separately with six goals and two assists.
A home game without a goal or assist? That has not happened yet. It may interest you to know that he has only scored once to make it 1-0. In every home game, and this is all the more impressive, Lille has scored the first goal of the game.
If they manage to do the same against Dortmund, you can look forward to odds of 1.92 at Bet365.
Incidentally, Lille have only lost two home games in Ligue 1, so it’s no coincidence that even Real Madrid have fared poorly in the Champions League. Dortmund, on the other hand, have won twice away from home in the Bundesliga: against St. Pauli and Heidenheim, which is not at the level of a Champions League game.
My Lille Dortmund Tip:
How will Borussia Dortmund approach the match in Lille after the 1-1 draw in the first leg? BVB is under a lot of pressure right now, the defeat against Augsburg was alarming. And just like in the first duel against Lille, they only managed one shot on target.
Star striker Serhou Guirassy is also not performing well at the moment, and the mood within the team is extremely tense. Lille would like to take advantage of this, the previous results from their own stadium read well.
Real Madrid didn’t score here, Juve scored once. So I don’t expect us to see a wild spectacle here. Since the first mistake could decide who advances, my tip is:
A maximum of two goals will be scored here!
