Ligue 1, Monday, 06.05.2024
Lille (17) and Lyon (16) are among the five most in-form Ligue 1 teams of the previous eight matchdays. Both teams have lost just one of their last seven league matches, making for a thrilling game this Monday evening.
Paulo Fonseca and his players are the best home team in Ligue 1 (36 points). An outstanding eleven wins from 15 home games testify to the tremendous home strength that Olympique Lyon must face.
For my Lille Lyon betting tip, I’m taking a step back from the three-way bet. Instead, I go for the odds of 1.75 for “Lille Over 1.5 goals” in the Betway app
Maybe your thoughts for a Lille Lyon betting tip initially went past a goal bet for the home side. That would not be reprehensible, as the Great Danes are known more for their fantastic defense than their offensive power.
The expected goals conceded from play for the OSC are a meagre 22.53 xGA and are the second-best figure in Ligue 1 after Nice’s 22.44 expected goals conceded
In a league comparison of goals conceded from play, however, it is not only the defensive strength of the home side that stands out, but also Lyon’s weak defense (35.97 xGA), which is only surpassed by three other French first division teams (15th).
It is already possible to discuss with relish whether the Bet365 offer code is best placed at odds of 1.92 for “Lille to win”.
Olympique Lyon collected one more point in the second half of the season (28) than Lille (27) and became the third best team in the second half of the season. That’s why I’m a little more cautious when it comes to three-way bets.
However, the visitors’ defense was, is and remains vulnerable. Only four league rivals have conceded more goals in the second half of the season than “Les Gones” (24).
We have already looked at the defensive weakness from play, but set pieces are also a knockout criterion for the Lyon backline. Only Toulouse (11.19 xGA) have conceded more goals from set-pieces than Pierre Sage’s side (10.52 xGA).
A weakness that no team in Ligue 1 exploited more successfully than OSC Lille (12 goals from set-pieces).
The strongest home team in Ligue 1 (36 points from 15 games) is not reliant on set pieces at home. On average, Lille coach Paulo Fonseca has seen his players score 1.93 goals per home game.
The fourth-placed side’s home goals have been well spread out, with Lille scoring at least two goals in 60 percent of their home games.
Lyon are also familiar with the feeling of scoring several goals in a match. Only four teams scored more goals in the second half of the season than “Les Gones” (26). So the door of my Happybet betting bonus is open for the odds of 2.45 for “Over 3.5 goals” in the match
On the other hand, it would be no surprise if Lille didn’t have to scramble a ball out of their own net. So far, the hosts have kept 60 percent of their home games scoreless.
If, following on from this figure, you turn your attention to “Lyon under 0.5 goals” at the sports betting providers, you can expect betting odds of around 3.20.
Despite odds of around 3.90, a three-goal win for the visitors is not really tempting for me. Lille have only lost one home game so far and have been far too consistent in the second half of the season
Both coaches have an attacker on the pitch in this pairing who is also coveted outside Ligue 1. Jonathan David (17 goals) and Alexandre Lacazette (16 goals) are two of the top three scorers in the French top flight.
Lille goalscorer David in particular was a feast for the eyes in the second half of the season, scoring twelve of his 17 goals in the second half of the season
The home arena particularly suits the hosts’ top scorer. Jonathan David scored ten of his twelve goals in the second half of the season at home and won plenty of praise from the fans.
Another goal from Jonathan David is very likely and brings you odds of 2.20 at Happybet
The hosts go into this match as favorites. Lille are the best home team in Ligue 1 and score an average of almost two goals per home game.
Lyon have been busy collecting points in the second half of the season, but are still extremely vulnerable in defense.
My Lille Lyon betting tip is therefore: Lille Over 1.5 goals
