OSC Lille – FK Sturm Graz betting tip
What is going on with Jonathan David? A brace against Sturm in the first leg and another in the closing minutes of the Ligue 1 game against Rennes last weekend right after?
In any case, it is thanks to the OSC striker that the Styrians’ chances of reaching the Conference League quarter-finals are in tatters.
Damage limitation is therefore the order of the day for the Austrians ahead of Thursday. Whereby my Lille Sturm Graz betting tip takes a closer look at worthwhile betting options for the second leg, all of which can be used via the Oddset app:
However, you should always consider the odds of the German bookmakers when making a Lille Sturm Graz betting tip!
And in this case, I prefer a goal bet on Mika Biereth over Jonathan David – by far!
The Dane is an exceptional player and the surprisingly high goal rate for him could, with a bit of luck, turn into a generous payout on my betting slip on Thursday.
And if anyone is scoring consistently for Graz at the moment, it’s certainly the Gunners loanee
The prediction of the bookmakers?
As a reflection of the Austrians’ current chances of reaching the next round, the bookmakers’ exceptionally one-sided Lille Sturm Graz odds for the second leg immediately catch the eye.
With LOSC win odds of 1.48, the bookmakers make it clear that they also trust the French side’s more mature style of play in the second clash.
A Styrian success, on the other hand, has been set at odds that are beyond the 7 mark for the vast majority and are therefore considered extremely unlikely…
Analysis: Lille – Sturm Graz
What happened at the Merkur Arena just over a week ago was certainly disappointing! The team from Graz had set their sights high and the crowd was overwhelming.
Nevertheless, the “Schwoazn” were unable to live up to the high expectations. Lille were the better team and deserved to win 3:0. Even the clarity of this result was justified.
With an xG value of 2.66, the French deserved three goals rather than two, whereas Sturm, with a value of just 0.88, mathematically did not get his honorary goal
The decisive factor in the French side’s success was that the Styrians were never able to put a stop to the visitors’ attacking midfield.
Gomes and especially Zhegrova on the right flank were unstoppable, while on the Austrian side the “wonder weapon” Mikah Biereth played his worst competitive game in the shirt of his new club so far.
Nevertheless, I remain of the opinion that this 3-0 lead from a week ago is an extremely comfortable cushion for Lille.
The French side will therefore have little objection to letting their guests take control of the game to a certain extent in the re-match…
Odds analysis
Tendentially, I would recommend all bets that do not assume another dismantling of the Styrians.
Graz are too good to let an opponent who won’t have to give 100% show them up like they did a week ago.
Consequently, my betting thoughts range from a double chance X2 bet to a tip 2 wins with HC +2, which are available for 2.65 and 1.55 respectively, along with one or two lucrative sports betting bonuses in the bookmakers’ windows.
Lille are almost unbeatable at home!
I had to wipe my eyes in amazement when I looked at many a sports betting app. The odds of 1.50 for an OSC win are quite optimistic for a club that will go into this second leg with the handbrake on.
However, this assumption by the bookmakers may also be based on the Dogues’ almost flawless performances in their own stadium so far.
Because regardless of the competition and whether it was a test or competitive match, Lille’s only defeat in the Stade Pierre-Mauroy since April 2023 was almost six months ago in the league against Reims (1:2), their first and last defeat in this period!
A goal from Biereth is mercilessly underestimated!
For me, Mika Biereth is the next Danish Rasmus Hojlund growing up in Styria.
The fact that the loanee from Arsenal London looked pale in his first game against Lille and was also barely able to make a decisive offensive impact in the 1-1 draw against Hartberg in the Bundesliga last weekend does little to change that
Lille, on the other hand, already shifted down a gear a few days ago against Rennes (2:2) and three days after the UECL second leg against Sturm, they face an extremely difficult trip to Brest in Ligue 1, where the French surprise team of 2023/24 awaits them.
It’s therefore quite clear to me that OSC won’t play to the hilt on Thursday, but will instead give top priority to “managing” their lead.
And this is precisely why Biereth could use his chance to redeem himself a little.
Because the Dane scored in both the first and second leg of the UECL play-offs against Slovan Bratislava before his poor performance against Lille, all my hopes rest on his shoulders.
And to be honest: With odds of around 4.50 for the youngster to score on Thursday, Oddset is making me a really great offer anyway in terms of the ratio between the potential payout and the risk involved
My Lille Sturm Graz tip:
There shouldn’t be any wild surprises on Thursday – at least not in terms of who advances.
But the fact that the bookmakers underestimate the Styrians – and Mika Biereth in particular – to such an extent makes me a “fan of Graz”, so to speak.
Because given the starting position, I would not only include double chance odds of around 2.65 on my betting slip, but above all a goal from the next Scandinavian soccer miracle …
My tip: Mika Biereth scores
