Conference League round of 16, second leg, Thursday, 14.03.2024
Success in Zagreb is closely linked to one name: Bruno Petkovic. The Modri captain scored his second brace in the last four Conference League games in the first leg against PAOK Saloniki to lead Zagreb to a well-deserved 2:0 home win.
The Croatians can rely on their defense in the second leg, which is a bench force in European competition. PAOK are still unbeaten on the international stage in their own stadium, but face a Herculean task.
I expect another strong team from Zagreb, who will qualify for the quarter-finals thanks to their clever defense. For my PAOK Saloniki Dinamo Zagreb betting tip, I choose the odds of 1.88 for “PAOK under 1.5 goals” at NEObet.
The Greek Super League leaders will need a phenomenal home performance at Toumba Stadium to overturn the 2-0 deficit from the first leg.
The Greeks are still unbeaten at home this Conference League season (2 wins, 1 draw), which makes them the clear odds-on favorite with odds of up to 1.91 with the new bookmakers.
Zagreb have been unbeaten in five Conference League games in a row (4 wins, 1 draw) and are nevertheless attracting fantastic odds of between 3.80 and 4.12 at Oddset and Co.
The reigning Croatian champions got off to a miserable start to the international season, losing three of their first four Conference League games (1 win).
However, that was no reason for visiting coach Sergej Jakirovic and his players to abandon the remaining games. Instead, Zagreb put in a final spurt in the group stage and made it through to the intermediate round with victories against FC Astana (2:0) and FC Ballkani (3:0).
There, the Modri faced Europa League relegated Sevilla FC (1:0, 1:1), remained unbeaten and thus ventured into the round of 16.
Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in five Conference League games (4 wins, 1 draw) and one of the hottest teams in the competition.
Key factors in the visitors’ success are their new-found defensive strength and top attacker and captain Bruno Petkovic.
The coaching staff can rely 100 per cent on the burly striker, who has scored seven goals in just six appearances in the current competition and has also been responsible for five of Zagreb’s last seven goals.
When the captain was on the pitch, Modri did not lose a match in the Conference League (5 wins, 1 draw). Alongside the attacker, the visitors’ defensive unit plays the most prominent role.
Zagreb have conceded just one goal in their last five Conference League games and have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five matches
Up until the first leg of the round of 16, PAOK Thessaloniki fans were able to celebrate at least two goals from their favorite team in every international match.
However, the first encounter with Dinamo Zagreb put a damper on the mood. The Greeks failed to score and only created 0.49 xG.
scoring chances.
Normally, the fans of the “Two-headed Eagles of the North” have justified hopes of a high-scoring home win. During the group stage, PAOK blew the competition apart with 16 goals in 6 games.
However, Thessaloniki have had surprisingly big problems with strong competition in recent home games. The home side ended their last two home appearances in the Greek Super League against AEK Athens (1:1) and Olympiakos Piraeus (1:4) with less than 1.5 goals each.
A development that would not have been more inappropriate at any point in the season than ahead of the all-important second leg against the compact Zagreb defense
These were not the only signs of a regression in attack for Lucescu’s side. In mid-February, PAOK lost the Greek Cup semi-final first leg 1-0 in front of a sell-out crowd.
It was only the second time in the entire 2023/2024 season that spectators left the Toumba Stadium without seeing the hosts score.
PAOK Thessaloniki weakened in the most important phase of the season, missed the chance to win the cup and are now just one point ahead of AEK Athens in the league. Following their elimination from the Greek Cup, they now face the threat of elimination from the second competition
Dinamo Zagreb are one of the most in-form teams in the Conference League and successfully restricted the Greeks’ attacking efforts in the first leg.
The home game is of great importance for PAOK Saloniki, but the otherwise successful offense has had surprisingly big problems in recent matches to build on their previous performances.
The Greeks are certainly capable of scoring a goal in their own stadium. However, Zagreb can concentrate on their own strength, their defensive behavior.
My PAOK Saloniki Dinamo Zagreb betting tip is therefore: PAOK under 1.5 goals
