Conference League League Phase, Matchday 4, Thursday, 28.11.2024 at 21:00
For FCL fans, it’s time to hit the road on Thursday! Because their favorite team has to play its Conference League home game again in the Thun Stockhorn Arena.
The venue can hold up to 10,000 spectators and also fulfills the UEFA requirements for a European Cup match.
In my Lugano Gent betting tip, meanwhile, I expect that the Ticino side’s small victory will not result in another win. After all, even much larger footballing calibres would currently be biting their teeth out against the Belgians’ extremely resilient defense.
Lugano showed last Sunday with an impressive 4:1 win against FC Zurich that they have returned from the international break with a clear statement.
This success was also sorely needed to put the bad feeling from the 4-1 defeat against TSC in the Conference League and the 2-1 defeat against Young Boys behind them.
However, despite this triumph, the Ticino side’s form curve remains difficult to assess. Strong at times, then faltering again – that sums up their current record.
The Black & Whites seem to be a team that shows its full strength at certain moments, but weakens at others and does not perform consistently at a high level.
In terms of injuries, the Ticino side is currently doing well, as they have not been plagued by any major absences so far. The problem lies more in their lack of consistency.
Another shortcoming is their poor record in the last four European Cup duels against Belgian clubs since the start of the 2023 calendar year: Four defeats and just a single goal in 360 minutes of play.
It is precisely against these defensively disciplined Jupiler League teams that Lugano’s offense has difficulty being successful, which must clearly be seen as a disadvantage in view of Thursday.
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The situation is completely different for Gent compared to Lugano. The Belgians are currently in impressive form and recently defeated Standard Liège with a clear 5:0. That was their fourth competitive game in a row without conceding a goal – a sign of their defensive qualities.
They have also won against Molde (2:1) and Omonia (1:0) in the Conference League, making the most of their three UECL games so far.
I’m deliberately leaving out the 4-2 defeat against Chelsea on the first matchday at this point. That’s because the Londoners, who are the top favorites to win the 2024/25 Conference League, seem to be no match for them in this competition.
The industry giant Bet365, meanwhile, reflects the indecision in the markets, offering an almost even betting market rating of 2.45 for Lugano, 3.45 for a draw and 2.75 for Gent.
But if you look at the current form curves of the two teams, it seems more realistic to me that the KAA will come out on top in the end.
If the Belgians maintain their form, I see them as the slightly stronger team that could even win this duel.
Before looking at the Lugano Gent odds, you should take a closer look at the statistics.
Lugano have never beaten a Belgian club and – as already mentioned – have lost all of their last four matches against Belgian teams!
Three of these games were even lost by more than one goal difference. Therefore, the lucrative odds of 2.75 for a “KAA win” could prove to be a very attractive thrill.
But there are also interesting alternatives. The defensive strength of Gent, especially with Torunarigha and Watanabe in central defense, leaves little room for the Ticino side to assert themselves effectively.
For this very reason, I think the odds of 1.70 for “Lugano to score under 1.5 goals” are pretty safe.
In conclusion, a combination of these two betting recommendations could be just the thing for all risk-averse sports betting fans among you!
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Conclusion: Ghent’s defense currently deserves top marks. With a stable defense and players like Torunarigha and Watanabe, the Belgians have been putting in really solid performances for weeks now!
In contrast, Lugano conceded an inexplicable 4-1 defeat to TSC in their last UCL game, which in my opinion disqualifies them from a home win bet.
Ghent also brings a bit more quality and class to the field and would have deserved to be the favorites on the betting markets. In view of these facts, I think a Lugano Gent bet on “Double chance X2” is a very good choice.
