Bundesliga Matchday 10, Saturday, 09.11.2024 at 15:30
Don’t go into this matchday full of anxiety and tension, otherwise it won’t work out! Borussia Dortmund are anxiously awaiting our Bundesliga tips, as another business trip is calling today.
So no chance to leave my Mainz Dortmund betting tip with the favorite position?
Fortunately, I can allay a few concerns for the BVB fans among you and make things clear: Mainz 05 have the same problems at home that your team has to fight at home!
But… which bet do I recommend now? I’ve decided to go for a real classic with the “BTS.”
Of course, in my analysis I’ll also be looking very closely at how Borussia have gone winless in three straight matches. After all, the colorful mix of historical and current facts should be enough to underpin the BTS.
The Mainz Dortmund odds were carefully selected by the bookmakers with cash out function.
This means that although the visitors are favored, the average odds of 2.10 to 3.30 suggest that a win will by no means be a foregone conclusion.
The fact that Dortmund travel to Mainz directly after the Premier League can now be interpreted as both an advantage and a disadvantage. And regardless of the late win against Graz: I would have picked the “both teams score” either way!
The betting oddsmakers’ forecast?
Of course, word has gotten around about Borussia’s glaring weakness on the road. In the Mainz Dortmund betting tip, the visitors are therefore not heavily favored, but the odds actually exceed 2.00 with all bookies.
Mainz is going into the race with 3.30. That’s actually not too bad considering the fact that they haven’t won a single three-pointer at home. On the other hand, 05 are unbeaten in three matches against Dortmund.
The visitors would certainly not be satisfied with a draw, but Mainz would probably be fine. Definitely interesting: since 2005, there has only been one draw in this duel on Mainz soil.
If this happens again on Saturday, the odds will be an average of 3.60.
KI prediction Mainz vs Dortmund: ChatGPT
With all that is currently hitting BVB, ChatGPT is of course also looking at this club and the game against Mainz in detail. Has the AI spit out any particularly interesting bets for me, which I can now present to you with the three different risk levels?
The high risk refers to the bet “Draw and both score”. Well, draws are rather rare in Mainz against Dortmund, and since this is a case of home versus away weakness, I don’t think this bet is at all unrealistic!
We’ll continue with the medium risk, which says: Dortmund will score first. Since Mainz have scored twice at home and the Black & Yellows only once away, I’m not sure this is such a great bet!
You get the low risk with the bet on “Under 3.5 goals”. Mainz have scored three goals in five home games, which is poor. In addition, eight of the last ten home games against Dortmund have fallen short of this limit. So this tip could actually work out!
Analysis: Mainz vs Dortmund
Anxious mood in Dortmund, despite the past weekend! BVB had secured a 2:1 win against RB Leipzig in the top match and showed once again: Our home face is really strong.
The Black & Yellows won all five home games. Twice 2:1, once 4:2, once 2:0? Well, there hasn’t been a real thumping victory yet, but the bottom line is that the three points have counted.
So why aren’t they really happy at BVB? Quite simply because the home face is really ONLY put on at home, away from home the fifth of the previous season sometimes kicks like a relegated team!
0:0 against Bremen, 1:5 in Stuttgart, 1:2 at Union Berlin and 1:2 in Augsburg – whether top opponents or relegation candidates, everyone managed to take something with them against the self-proclaimed CL aspirants.
Odds Analysis
It’s not easy to assess BVB these days! With Borussia’s away performances going from strength to strength, I can well imagine another slip-up.
Betano is offering you odds of 1.78 for the Rheinhessen double chance.
The last time Borussia lost in Augsburg despite taking the lead. Should the spark ignite in Mainz and Dortmund have lost some energy in the Champions League, there is the bet on a Mainz victory after falling behind. Here the odds would jump to a great 8.25!
If I had to choose a result bet – I would probably go for 1:1. Both weaknesses would remain somewhere, and the odds don’t read too bad at 7.60.
Mainz vs. Dortmund: disadvantage in the premier class?
It’s also interesting that the results alternate. 1:2, 2:1, 1:2, 2:1? If it continues like this, another 1:2 should actually follow at the weekend. What are the odds?
You can of course place this result bet very easily, in the AdmiralApp we would be at odds of 9.70.
Is it a decisive disadvantage that Dortmund played Sturm Graz in the Champions League a few days ago?
The duel against the Austrians was won 1:0, and very late on. But: After the first three group games, Borussia also had to play away – and all three of these games were lost!
Weakness at home against weakness away!
The team is already out of the DFB Cup, losing after extra time in Wolfsburg. What’s also important ahead of the clash with Mainz 05: looking at the squad that can make the trip.
A number of stars are injured! Marcel Sabitzer, Ramy Bensebaini, Felix Nmecha, Jamie Gittens and keeper Gregor Kobel are still not sure who will be able to take the field on Saturday.
They were unbeaten in Mainz for nine years before the most recent 3-0 defeat. Well, it was already the 33rd matchday, there wasn’t much left to play for. And in fact, I’ve now found a fact that every BVB fan will like
The only time they’ve lost to Mainz in a first half of a season! In September 2014, a certain Ciro Immobile missed a penalty that Loris Karius, then in goal for Mainz, saved.
The home side will probably be more concerned with the current situation. They ended last season with a strong final spurt and managed to do almost everything, especially at home.
Curious: The 05s only won a single away game in 2023/24. The current season is not yet old, but they have already won two. Draws in Stuttgart and Freiburg, victories against St. Pauli and Augsburg, things are suddenly going well away from home.
The problem: Mainz have lost their home strength. The hosts had to be satisfied with a 1:1 draw against Union Berlin and Gladbach, while defeats came against Bremen (1:2), Heidenheim (0:2) and RB Leipzig (0:2).
Mainz did not exude much goal threat, with only one home game exceeding the 2.5-goal mark. Without Jonathan Burkardt, things would probably be even worse, as the attacker has scored five of Mainz’s eleven goals.
The problem is that he has only scored away from home so far, so he is still waiting to be able to celebrate with all the fans. Of course, he is also hoping that fellow striker Karim Onisiwo will be fit again by the weekend.
My Mainz BVB tip:
Borussia Dortmund and their weakness on the road – you could write books about it early on in the season. A single point, a number of goals conceded, few goals of their own, the Black & Yellows are really hanging in the air away from home.
All of these facts apply to Mainz’s home games, no question about it, making it really difficult to choose a favorite. That’s why I’m not going to bet in this direction at all, but will instead focus on a completely different tip.
Defensively, I don’t like Dortmund at all; after the CL, they’ve always conceded at least two goals. Since Mainz have never kept a clean sheet at home, my bet is:
Both teams score!
