Premier League 31st matchday, Sunday, 06/04/2025 at 5:30 PM
No Champions League in Manchester? Is that conceivable? In the coming season, it could be the case that neither the Citizens nor the Red Devils will compete in the premier class.
Ruben Amorim’s team may have lost their last Premier League game against Nottingham (0-1), but they made a good impression (1.63:0.48 xG).
The Red Devils can confirm this impression in the Manchester United Manchester City betting tip and prevent a defeat against their city rivals.
In the worst case, the Citizens are missing top striker Erling Haaland for the rest of the season. I doubt whether the other players can make up for his lack of scoring at such short notice.
The betting tipsters’ prediction?
The Manchester derby has taken some surprising turns in recent years, especially the English Premier League matches.
Ten of the 18 previous Premier League duels between the two Manchester clubs were won by the away team. The current season has been disappointing for both clubs, which is why I would take advantage of a free bet.
A “Manchester City win” gets you odds of up to 2.15 at the various bookmakers. A “Manchester United win” is available at a significantly higher rate (around 3.40).
Analysis: Manchester United vs. Manchester City
Defending is not a specialty of the two Manchester clubs this season. The Citizens allow the most expected goals per opposing shot on goal (0.14 xGA).
Together with a few other teams, the city rivals are just behind them (0.13 xGA). In my opinion, a Manchester derby with multiple goals is quite likely.
The number of goals conceded is almost identical on both sides. Manchester City is lagging behind in the comparison of the current top five (40 goals conceded) and is only slightly better than the Red Devils (41).
Added to this are the positive experiences Ruben Amorim has had against the Skyblues this season. He has beaten Guardiola’s side with both Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League and Manchester United in the Premier League.
Odds Analysis
Bruno Fernandes remains the figurehead of the Red Devils squad. The captain is usually the initiator of dangerous attacks and has once again impressed in recent weeks.
Over the five previous Premier League games, the midfielder scored three goals and provided four assists.
His total of 18 scorer points is once again an outstanding figure and an incentive to place a bet on “Bruno Fernandes to score”. With the Bet365 app, you get 3.60 times the winnings with a successful attempt.
Manchester United vs. Manchester City: The Red Devils don’t wear any white vests
Ruben Amorim is used to success. The 40-year-old took to the sidelines for 231 matches between 2020 and 2024 for Sporting Lisbon. On average, he and his team took 2.29 points per game.
As coach of the Red Devils, Amorim has to face a new situation that is unfamiliar to him. Victories are no longer part of his daily routine. In the first 29 matches, the Portuguese only managed to get 1.52 points per game with his new team.
Too many goals conceded have been part of the problem, as has the question of whether the current personnel fit his idea of a 3-4-3 system.
Old Trafford has always served the Red Devils well. But even in their own stadium, the fans are suffering with their team.
The Red Devils have not won at home for eight games and have conceded 17 goals in nine Premier League home games under Ruben Amorim.
More than just a stopgap?
At just 24 years old, Erling Haaland has already produced numbers that many strikers only dare to dream of.
The Norwegian appeared 138 times in a Manchester City shirt, scoring 120 goals and laying on 18 more. He is currently second on the scoring charts (21 goals), behind Mohamed Salah (27).
In the worst case, it will remain at this number until the end of this season. Pep Guardiola will be without his top striker for several weeks.
This could jeopardize a possible participation in the upcoming Champions League season, because apart from Haaland, no professional in the Skyblues squad has scored more than seven goals (Phil Foden).
Omar Marmoush was signed in the winter and has been able to celebrate five goals in eight matches. However, he still often lacks connection to the rest of the team.
The next-highest scorer is defender Josko Gvardiol. Marmoush now has several weeks to earn his laurels without Haaland.
However, the Citizens have found away games particularly difficult of late. Guardiola’s side have ended six of their previous 11 Premier League away appearances in defeat.
On top of that, the Skyblues have not won any of their last three Manchester derbies and have also lost both matches against Ruben Amorim this season.
This is a completely unusual situation for the subscription champions. The visitors have only collected more than the current six away defeats in one (2019/2020) of their last 13 Premier League seasons.
Bruno Fernandes has already been mentioned in the upper section. I would like to take this opportunity to pick up on that again. The 30-year-old is enjoying the matches at Old Trafford this season.
Across all competitions, the captain has been directly involved in 21 goals at the Red Devils’ home stadium (12 goals, 9 assists).
With one more home assist, the Portuguese would finish a season with at least ten goals scored and ten assists at Old Trafford for the third time.
My Manchester United – Manchester City Tip:
Manchester City has scored 44 percent of their goals in away games this season and has only won six of 15 Premier League away appearances.
Of their four previous PL away games, the Citizens only returned home with a single victory under their belts. I think Manchester United will get at least a point at home at Old Trafford!
My Manchester United v Manchester City betting tip: Double Chance 1X!
