Europa League Quali, 1st round, second leg, Thursday, 18.07.2024 at 20:15
Actually true: The 2024/25 season is already in full swing. The first legs of the Europa League qualifiers have already been played.
NK Maribor suffered a bitter 2:1 defeat at Botev Plovdiv. So the central question in my Maribor Plovdiv betting tip is: Can the Slovenians fight back against the Bulgarians in the second leg in front of their home crowd and at least save themselves in extra time?
Either way, I’m convinced that we’ll see some goals
To be honest, I can’t really make heads or tails of the Maribor Plovdiv odds from top providers like NEObet, where you should also take a look at the current NEObet bonus.
On the one hand, the betting providers see NK as the clear favorite with odds of around 1.75 to win. On the other hand, Botev Plovdiv are seen as having a much better chance of advancing to the next round (1.70).
So are Betano and Co. constructing a scenario here in which Maribor first saves itself with a narrow victory in extra time, but Plovdiv ultimately comes out on top? That’s a bit too special for me personally. So I’ll keep my hands off it
What can be deduced statistically, however, is Maribor’s preference for high-scoring matches.
In fact, the Slovenians have only conceded once in their last six games. In the past seven games, the bet “over 2.5 goals” would have led to success in each case.
An open exchange of blows against Plovdiv with a better ending for NK? Not at all unlikely!
Maribor certainly feel at home on the international stage. They have been regulars in the various qualifying rounds of the various competitions for decades.
And take note: they have even made it to the group stage of the Champions League three times so far.
The last time they took part was in the 2017/18 season, but in the end they had no realistic chance of reaching the round of 16
The European Cup history of their opponents Plovdiv is somewhat clearer overall. But even the Bulgarians will not be in awe when they play away in Slovenia.
The truth is, however, that their greatest successes lie several years in the past. In the 1984/85 season, they were even allowed to compete with the great FC Bayern once.
In the round of 16 of that year’s European Cup Winners’ Cup, they actually won the second leg 2-0 after losing the first leg 4-1.
Goals are generally a good keyword. Similar to Maribor, Plovdiv have a rather wild approach to the game these days.
A total of 17 goals have been scored in the last four Botev games alone.
It should also be mentioned that the Bulgarians were unable to qualify for the Europa League via the league. They only finished seventh in the 16-team league in the previous season
But they surprisingly won the cup and qualified for the European Cup in the process. So Plovdiv can play knockout games.
The “Double Chance X2” for the game in Maribor is therefore a good betting alternative at Sunmaker Sportwetten. The odds are around 2.00 and offer sufficient value.
Also worth considering: “Botev to score over 1.5 goals against NK” at odds of 3.10. You would have been successful in the Bulgarians’ last four games with this bet.
The direct comparison is not a betting aid. NK Maribor and Botev Plovdiv met for the first time ever in the first leg. It was also the Bulgarians’ first competitive match against a team from Slovenia.
Nevertheless, I was able to dig up a little clue for you. Maribor have already faced two other Bulgarian teams, Levski Sofia and Ludogorez Rasgrad. NK were unable to record a win in a total of four games.
After five games, their record against Bulgarian teams therefore stands at four draws and one defeat. So that’s no great encouragement for the clash on Thursday evening
Conclusion: It’s really difficult to predict whether NK Maribor will ultimately come out on top thanks to home advantage or whether Plovdiv can also win the second leg.
In the end, the slightly luckier team will probably make it through to the second qualifying round. However, given the style of play of both teams, it is highly likely that things will get turbulent.
Which team will ultimately come out on top is irrelevant for my Maribor Plovdiv betting tip. After all, it reads: There will be more than 2.5 goals in total.
