NBA Playoffs 2023/24, 2nd round, Game 4, Tuesday, 14.05.2024
The Dallas Mavericks are more than just Luka Doncic. They are a team built to win. Unlike previous playoffs, the Mavs are winning this year even when their best player isn’t having his best day.
In my Dallas Mavericks Thunder betting tip, I give the Mavs their third win in a row in this series at odds of 1.87 at Bwin.
Oklahoma finished the regular season in first place in the Western Conference (57-25) and started the playoffs with a spotless record of 5-0 wins.
Two defeats in a row against the Dallas Mavericks will put Head Coach Mark Daigneault’s team to the test. Game 4 will take place in the Mavs’ arena and could be decisive for this series.
In the sports betting apps you will find relatively balanced odds. Dallas has a minimal advantage over OKC, calling up top odds of 1.87 at Bwin.
For a “win OKC” there are currently odds around 2.00.
However, I prefer to place my Mavericks bet on a win for the hosts, who have taken the lead in this series with two wins in a row (2-1).
An ailing Luka Doncic has been a huge problem for Jason Kidd’s team in recent years, but could ironically prove to be a stroke of luck this year.
Dallas has evolved and is a cohesive unit. In addition to Doncic, they have a second go-to-guy in Kyrie Irving who can take over a game and has developed into a leader.
The guard is hitting 44.3 percent of his shots from distance in the playoffs (on 6.8 attempts per game) and has a dreamlike ability to finish in a variety of ways near the basket.
It goes well beyond that. The Mavs’ role players are red hot, with P.J. Washington in particular taking advantage of his freedom and contributing 27 and 29 points in the Mavs’ two wins.
If Washington continues to prove a hot hand, you should have equipped yourself in advance with odds of 1.95 for “Washington scores over 15.5 points” in the Tipwin app.
If the 25-year-old scores over 20.0 points, the probability of a third Dallas win in a row increases. So far, the Mavs have a 4-2 record in the playoffs when Washington has scored 20+ points.
The over/under for Doncic is set at 28.5 points. The reigning scoring champion is visibly banged up and is out of reach on the player betting shelf today.
OKC has a 33-8 home record in the regular season. The Thunder have been significantly weaker away from home (24-17).
Dallas benefits from the home arena in Game 4. That could be reflected above all in the duel for the rebounds.
The Mavs are earning 14.2 2nd-chance points (4th) in the playoffs and thus striking a nerve with the 1st seed in the Western Conference. OKC allows the third most 2nd-chance points in the entire playoffs (15.4).
In addition, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lacked support in Game 3. Apart from SGA (31 points), no OKC player scored more than 16 points in the encounter.
In the regular season, the Thunder were extremely dangerous in the zone and had a top-10 value in the league in terms of “points scored in the zone” (52.5).
The Mavs’ defense has taken this strength away from the Western Conference’s top seed and reduced the scoring average in the zone by a whole eight points compared to the regular season.
The Mavs, on the other hand, scored a whopping 14 more points in the zone than OKC in Game 3 with their constant lob passes and drives by their two stars.
Some of those points came off offensive rebounds, of which Kidd’s squad collected a total of 15 in Game 3 – nine more than Oklahoma!
Finally, I’d like to point out the top 5 scorers in this series. SGA (90) scored the most points, but three of the next four players wearing the Mavs jersey.
Doncic even held back with 70 points, but was actively supported by P.J. Washington (66) and Kyrie Irving (51).
Dallas is playing another home game after two wins in a row and has the momentum completely on its side.
The Mavs are currently giving OKC too many different tasks, so the prioritization of the Thunder defense has become opaque.
While Luka Doncic is getting much more support on offense, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shouldered too much of the load in Game 3.
My Dallas Mavericks Oklahoma City Thunder betting tip is: Win Dallas Mavericks
