Friendly match, Sunday, 09.06.2024
Today’s opponents are two teams that I personally would not count among the absolute top favorites of the Copa America for various reasons. Even if they are undoubtedly established greats.
However, in my Mexico Brazil prediction, the reasons outweigh the reasons to associate lucrative free bets on this pairing with a possible victory for the South Americans
If you’ve typed “Brazil Mexico prediction” into Google, you’ll most likely also be interested in the Copa America 2024, which starts soon.
And in this context, I’ll give you a hot extra tip on top: Uruguay could end up on top with their double-digit overall win rate.
After all, the “Celeste”, who are full of superstars and play incredibly well, inflicted a bloodcurdling 4-0 defeat on the Mexicans a few days ago, which could have done lasting damage to El Tri.
Things have not been looking good for Mexico for some time now, but the recent defeat to Uruguay, in which their own offense created big chances that corresponded to an xG value of just 0.23, paints a very bleak picture …
I wouldn’t put too much hope in the Mexicans if I were you. The entire back line should have been replaced last Thursday, only central defender Orozco didn’t have a terrible game.
Incidentally, this performance was the last piece of evidence I needed to show that the Central Americans simply can no longer be counted among the best teams in the CONMEBOL-CONCACAF zone.
Watch out: Of their last six international matches, the games against Honduras (3:0), Panama (3:0) and Bolivia (1:0) were won quite comfortably, but against strong nations such as Colombia (2:3) and the USA (0:2) there was also nothing to be gained recently.
There are indeed similarities between the two opponents. Like Mexico, Brazil must also recover from a few extremely unsuccessful months.
Brazil have made the worst start to CONMEBOL qualifying in their history. Even after six matchdays, their record is still not positive (2 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats).
However, the field of participants has been enlarged again in the course of the 2026 World Cup, so it would be very unusual if the five-time world champions cannot secure at least a place in the top 7 in the long term
What sets Brazil apart from Mexico, however, is their enormous player potential, which makes a turnaround possible at any time. In fact, there are already signs of this.
The 2024 calendar year began with two respectable results against Spain (3:3) and England (1:0), which point to a positive development.
However, I am still not entirely comfortable with the Seleção, as they lack demonstrable consistency in terms of results in contrast to nations such as Argentina and Uruguay. But in terms of the squad, Brazil should be able to play a much better Copa America than Mexico
On paper, Brazil are clearly the better team. They have put together an extremely experienced and talented defense for the Copa America with Danilo (Juventus), Éder Militão (Real Madrid) and Marquinhos (PSG).
Only the fourth defender could drop off somewhat, as no other defender in the current squad has played more than seven international matches
In the center of the pitch, Lucas Paquetá will lead an almost pure Premier League line-up. Up front, I’m really looking forward to the trio of Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo and Endrick.
What do all three have in common? They are extremely talented, under 24 years old and will also be scoring goals together at club level at Real Madrid in 2024/25!
Incidentally, Brazil’s defense dominates the direct comparison. In the last four joint duels, the Mexicans have not been able to overcome the “Made in Brazil” catenaccio once (3 wins, 1 draw)
Following the 4-0 defeat against Uruguay, this will be Mexico’s second international match on Sunday before the start of the Copa America. And I wouldn’t blame any Central American for wanting to go home early.
Brazil, on the other hand, are playing their first friendly match in June and also have the European Championship bookmakers behind them.
Because many of the same bookmakers with whom I will soon be placing European Championship bets are united on the side of the Selecao in their Mexico Brazil odds:
The odds of 1.53 for Brazil to win are not exactly exhilarating, as the South Americans – as already mentioned – lack a similarly long series of successful international appearances as Argentina or Uruguay, for example.
However, you should not forget that the Mexicans do not have the right to play at home this weekend. Although they are listed as the home team, the match will actually take place in Texas
Conclusion: The match between Mexico and Brazil will be played in the USA. MEX are extremely rattled after their 4-0 loss to Uruguay, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see their passing percentage in the deep red on Sunday.
BRA, on the other hand, have had a tough few months after the 2022 World Cup but seem to be back on track. With their talented squad and recent positive results, the South Americans could easily gain the upper hand.
The conditions are therefore in Brazil’s favor, who despite the challenges look stronger than the unsettled Mexican team.
My tip: Victory Brazil
