Copa America, Group B, Monday, 01.07.2024 at 02:00
Exciting starting position ahead of the final matchday in Group B. Venezuela have already qualified for the quarter-finals after two wins against Mexico and Ecuador. Those two nations will now face each other.
The math is very simple, with the winner advancing to the last eight. Both nations had previously won against Jamaica. As Ecuador have the slightly better goal difference, a draw is enough for the South Americans.
Mexico is the team to beat. However, I don’t expect the big offensive spectacle. A mistake could be costly, I only expect increased risk in the second half, which is why I’m going for the Mexico Ecuador tip that more goals will be scored in the second half than in the first. The odds in the 2.10 range are waiting at Sunmaker:
Nobody would have thought that Venezuela would win the group with Ecuador and Mexico in the package. However, the South Americans won both games against the top teams in the group and, thanks to the direct comparison rule, were already assured of first place before the third matchday.
Jamaica, on the other hand, are certain to be eliminated, with a maximum of three points, while Ecuador and/or Mexico will also get some points in the direct duel. But who will take second place? Let’s see how the top betting providers assess the situation
The betting providers’ forecast
Everything is possible! At least that’s what the odds from Bet365, one of the best bookmakers, which has also stopped charging betting tax this year, suggest. Mexico and Ecuador are both given the same odds to win: 2.70.
Accordingly, there are also relatively lower odds of 3.20 for a draw. In terms of match outcome bets, I find the “double chance 1X” at 1.41 to be the most lucrative. Ecuador will ultimately only need a draw to progress
Analysis: Mexico vs. Ecuador
In terms of market value, this is also a clash of two similar sizes. Ecuador’s squad is around 20 million euros heavier than Mexico’s (204 million euros). However, Mexico’s squad is better spread out.
Jaime Lozano’s team, who has been in charge since August 2023, is stronger in attack in particular. In general, he has put together a stronger squad, while Ecuador have players in some positions who are clearly inferior to stars such as Moises Caicedo and Piero Hincapie.
An early red card did not initially slow Ecuador down in their first match against Venezuela. Jeremy Sarmiento put the men in the lead while short-handed. In the second half, Venezuela were able to make more of the advantage and turn the match around within ten minutes
Enner Valencia, who picked up the sending-off, is back in action after serving a one-match ban against Mexico. However, he was not sorely missed in the subsequent 3:1 win against Jamaica.
Ecuador had already laid the foundations at the break with a 2-0 lead. Michail Antonio made it exciting once again with the equalizer before substitute Alan Minda finally decided the match in stoppage time
An analysis of the odds
An important improvement in performance and an advantage against Mexico in terms of goal difference. The Mexicans have a neutral goal difference, while Ecuador is +1. The North Americans are challenged. A deserved 1:0 win against Jamaica.
The 1993 and 2001 Copa America runners-up were also the better team against Venezuela, but struggled to convert their chances. 2.52 expected goals, zero goals, including a missed penalty shortly before the end by Orbelin Pineda.
In both games, goals were only scored in the second half, meaning the teams went into half-time goalless twice. I don’t expect the last group game to be a mega spectacle either. Especially as fewer goals are scored in the American continental competitions anyway.
For the bet “Two to three goals in the match”, a strong 1.92 awaits at Sunmaker. I think four goals is unrealistic, but at the same time Mexico will have to increase the risk at some point. With two 0-0 scores at half-time, the 2.10 for more goals in the second half compared to the first half
Strong free bet promotions for Mexico vs Ecuador
A nice mix of both betting variants can be combined with the Bet Builder at Betano. A strong 1.70 odds are available for the mix of “Over 1.5 goals” and “Over 0.5 goals in the second half”.
In any case, Betano flexes its muscles with the over-goal odds in the bookmaker comparison. Incidentally, the bookmaker is also an official partner of Euro 2024. New customers can start betting without making a deposit, as a 20 euro free bet will be credited after successful verification.
If you are a free bet hunter, the new customer offer from Winamax must also be mentioned. Here you can get 200 euros free bet credit if you deposit 200 euros. The deposit amount only needs to be wagered once at minimum odds of 1.05 before it can be withdrawn again. The winnings from the free bets can even be withdrawn directly.
Will Mexico and Ecuador stick to the 4-2-3-1?
I’m also eagerly awaiting the line-ups of the two teams. Will Mexico line up in a 4-2-3-1 again? The team has played two good matches, but the attacking 4-3-3 variant was also tried out in the previous test matches.
However, the 4-3-3 was not successful against Brazil (2:3) and Uruguay (0:4). Mexico also lost the Nations League final in March against the USA, the nation that is still unbeaten in this competition and has twice relegated Mexico to second place.
Ecuador also opted for the 4-2-3-1 in the first Copa games, but also tested it out eagerly. In addition to a 4-3-3 against Honduras (2-1) shortly before the start of the tournament, a three-man backline was used against Italy in March (0-2) in a 5-4-1 variant.
Of course, we also need to take a look at the direct comparison, which speaks for itself, at least in terms of the overall picture. Mexico won 13 of the 19 matches, while the Ecuadorians were able to celebrate three times.
Three other times the duel ended in a draw. 30:18 goals per Mexico, an average of 2.53 goals per game. After eight successive victories against Ecuador, Mexico have hit a bit of a dry spell. The North Americans have been waiting for a win since 2015
The last friendly match in 2022 ended goalless, while Ecuador came out on top in 2021 and in the 2015 Copa group stage. In five of the last seven meetings, more goals have been scored in the second half.
The victory in the 2015 Copa group stage was also Ecuador’s only competitive match win. Since no win is necessary for second place and I expect the South Americans to take a lower risk, the second should not materialize
My tip:
Mexico haven’t played a bad game, were the better team against Jamaica and Venezuela, but have only managed to score one goal from their 38 opportunities so far. Looking at the entire squad, I see an advantage for the Mexicans in terms of power density.
However, the bet on Mexico to win is too risky for me, while the “Double chance 1X” odds are too low. The 1X variant would still be my first choice in the initial market. First and foremost, however, I’m assuming a match that starts quite calmly and picks up speed in the second half.
Mexico will have to play for victory in the end to overtake Ecuador and reach the knockout round. Incidentally, Mexico’s two first halves have so far been goalless and five of the last seven second halves in the direct duel against Ecuador have also been higher-scoring than the first.
I therefore opt for the following Mexico Ecuador betting tip: More goals in half-time 2
