LaLiga 2, Matchday 42, Sunday, 02.06.2024
“Do or die” is the motto on the final matchday of the second Spanish league when Mirandes and Amorebieta meet. Whoever loses on Sunday evening will be relegated to the third division.
The visitors from the Basque Country desperately need a three-pointer in their fight to avoid relegation, while Mirandes would be satisfied with a draw. In my Mirandes Amorebieta betting tip, I reveal why I expect goals on both sides.
With odds of 1.80, top bookie Bet365 offers the best conditions for this bet
Although the European Championship in Germany starts in two weeks, some leagues have not yet finished. This includes LaLiga 2, which is home to 22 teams. Accordingly, there are 42 match days, meaning that the season will not be over until the beginning of June.
Due to the high number of participants, the last four teams in the Spanish lower house are relegated, while only the top two teams are promoted directly. With 45 points and a goal difference of -15, SD Amorebieta are currently in 19th place and therefore in the relegation zone.
Although the clash between Mirandes and Amorebieta is not a derby, the close proximity of the two teams adds to the excitement of the match.
For the visitors, meanwhile, a draw would be enough to put them on the brink of safety. However, the current form speaks more in favor of the visitors
Thanks to seven points from their last three games, the visitors, who were thought to be dead, can now hope to stay in the league after all. On matchday 31, Jandro Casto’s team were still in last place, but were able to start a race to catch up with six wins from their last eleven games.
In view of the visitors’ rising form curve and the low expectations of the promoted team, the mood in Amorebieta is likely to be a little less tense. A return to the third division would not be a deal-breaker for the Azules, as “El Jalisco” have mostly played in lower leagues in the past.
The situation is different for the Rojillos, who are playing in the second division for the fifth time in a row. The Jabatos also have the significantly higher squad market value, but would have to make a change in the event of relegation
With regard to the odds distribution of the betting providers, it is clear that the hosts are the favorites. There is no other explanation for the multipliers of a maximum of 2.10 for a three-pointer for the Red & Blacks.
On the other hand, there are odds of up to 3.65 for an away win for the Basques. In the event of a draw, the bookies promise 3.3 times the payout.
As far as the expected number of goals is concerned, we can’t expect too much according to the bookies. The odds for the popular “Over 2.5 goals” bet are around 2.00.
If you look at the weak offensive values of both teams, it is certainly understandable that the betting market is expecting a low-scoring game. However, if one of the two teams takes the lead, the other team will be forced to take risks sooner or later.
I don’t necessarily assume that the Jabatos will play for a draw. On the other hand, I can’t imagine that Amorebieta will go on the offensive from the start either
With 14 points from their last 8 games, Amorebieta are in third place in the form table. On top of that, they have finished each of their last three games without conceding a goal and seem to have drawn the right conclusions from the 5-0 drubbing in Eibar at the beginning of May.
The fact that they still have a chance of avoiding relegation on the final matchday is largely down to coach Castro. The 45-year-old took over the team in mid-December when they were bottom of the table and have since picked up 31 points in 23 games
Not quite as satisfied with the way things are going, however, are those responsible at Mirandes. After two wins in a row at the end of April had all but secured their place in the league, they now have to tremble again with just two points from their last four games.
They have at least managed two draws in a row recently, although even that is not enough in the relegation battle. Mirandes led against Albacete last week and in their last home game against Elche in the closing stages, but squandered the lead on both occasions
The fact that Mirandes are usually second best, at least at home, gives the hosts’ supporters hope. The Red & Blacks have 29 points in front of their own fans.
Less pleasing is the fact that the Rojillos have one of the worst defenses in the league. Only Villareal’s second team conceded more goals than Mirandes
The final question is: what about the direct comparison? In fact, the two teams have only played each other ten times in history.
The Jabatos have four wins to their name, but Amorebieta have won each of the last two encounters. The encounters between these two clubs have rarely been high-scoring, with just eight goals scored in the last five matches
I can’t predict exactly who will end up in the top flight, but I am reasonably certain of one thing: we won’t see a clear winner, it will be exciting right to the end.
Mirandes would be well advised to take the initiative themselves so as not to leave the field to the in-form visitors. An early goal could have a decisive influence on the course of the game.
My prediction is: Both teams score!
